TRUMP poised for a Kumo breakout: Buy the dip at the 7.80 pivot for a run toward 8.20–8.25

Executive summary

• Instrument: OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP)
• Timestamp: 2025-11-07 22:17 UTC
• Last price: 7.8253
• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish continuation with a buy-the-dip preference; look for a retest of 7.94, then extension toward 8.10–8.25 if momentum persists. Invalidation below 7.56–7.60.

Price action and market structure (multi-timeframe)

1. Daily structure

• Aug–mid Oct: Primary downtrend from ~10.19 (Aug 14 high) to 5.41 (Oct 10 crash low).
• Oct 10–29: Strong rebound to 8.25 (Oct 29 high), then pullback to 6.97 (Nov 4 close).
• Today (Nov 7, session close 7.825): Wide-range bullish candle (7.31–7.94 range) closing near highs, reclaiming key pivots around 7.75–7.80. This is a bullish outside/engulfing-style session relative to early November, on elevated volume.
• Implication: Short-term upswing inside a larger choppy range (6.9–8.6). Price has reclaimed the 50% retracement of the August high-to-October low leg (≈7.80), turning that zone into a pivot.

2. Intraday (hourly) structure

• Session path: Morning selloff to 7.31 around 12:00 UTC, then stair-step advance with higher lows (7.37 → 7.50 → 7.62 → 7.68), reaching 7.94 high near 20:00. Minor pullback into the close (7.83).
• Micro-structure: Breakout–pullback–continuation behavior, ending with a tight flag between ~7.82–7.88. A clean break above 7.94 likely runs stops toward 8.10–8.25; failure would retest 7.68–7.74 (prior intraday value area).

Support and resistance map

• Immediate resistance: 7.94 (today’s high/trigger), 8.00–8.05 (psychological/round), 8.22–8.28 (late Oct congestion and measured move), 8.64 (Oct 30 spike high, upper cluster cap).
• Immediate support: 7.74–7.78 (intraday value/VWAP region), 7.68 (HL pivot), 7.56–7.60 (hourly structure and pre-impulse base), 7.31 (session low), 6.97 (Nov 4 close).
• Volume nodes: Heavy recent volume between 7.5–7.9 creates a high-volume node/pivot that can act as a springboard if held.

Moving averages and trend filters

• SMA10 (approx): ~7.39. Price above: short-term trend has flipped up.
• SMA20 (approx): ~7.1. Price well above: supportive of near-term upside.
• SMA50 (approx): ~8.3–8.5. Price below: intermediate trend still down/neutral; expect resistance on approach to 8.3–8.5.
• EMA posture: Fast EMAs (8/12) curling up and likely crossed above mid EMAs (20/26) on intraday; daily EMAs are close to a bullish inflection but still below the neutral line versus 50-day trend.
• Takeaway: Short-term bullish within a still-recovering intermediate trend, implying buy-the-dip with measured targets below the SMA50 band.

Momentum/oscillators

• RSI14 (daily, est.): ~50–53 after climbing from sub-40 earlier in the week. Neutral to slightly bullish; ample room to the upside before overbought.
• RSI (hourly): ~55–62 with a mild reset into the close; supports continuation after a shallow pullback.
• Stochastic (daily): Mid-to-high zone (~60–70), not overbought; intraday stochastic cycling favors another attempt higher if 7.74–7.78 holds.
• MACD (daily): Histogram likely turned positive or near zero; signal still below zero but rising. Early-cycle bullish turn. Hourly MACD already positive with a small bull divergence off mid-day lows.
• Takeaway: Momentum supports a follow-through advance if resistance at 7.94 is cleared.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR14 (daily, est.): ~0.60–0.80. Today’s true range ~0.63 corroborates.
• Expected next-24h range baseline: 7.58–8.30, with tails to 8.45 possible on a breakout day; downside tail to ~7.56 on a shakeout.
• Strategy implication: Favor entries on shallow pullbacks (7.74–7.78) or buy-stop through 7.95; set stops beyond 1.0–1.25× hourly ATR (~$0.20–0.25) under structure.

Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Mid-band (≈SMA20): ~7.1. Price reclaimed and riding toward upper band.
• Upper band est.: ~8.6; lower ~5.6 (bands still wide post-crash). Trading from mid to upper band is bullish; room remains before band pressure.

Ichimoku (daily, approximated)

• Tenkan (9): ~7.73; Kijun (26): ~7.02.
• Senkou A: ~(Tenkan+Kijun)/2 ≈ 7.38; Senkou B (52): ~(10.19 high + 5.41 low)/2 ≈ 7.80.
• Price 7.83: Testing/just above the cloud top (Span B ~7.80) — initiating a potential bullish Kumo breakout. Tenkan > Kijun, both rising. Chikou likely approaching price, a common confirmation lag.
• Implication: Holding above ~7.80 for several candles would validate a breakout and invite trend followers to target 8.2–8.6.

Volume, money flow, and VWAP

• Daily volume today: Elevated vs recent sessions (≈0.74B on the day point), consistent with accumulation on up-day.
• OBV/MFI: Both likely inflecting upward; price up on rising volume indicates demand absorption.
• Intraday VWAP (session): ~7.65–7.70 by eye from the hourlies; price closed above VWAP all afternoon, with pullbacks respecting VWAP bands.
• Anchored VWAP (from the 12:00 low ~7.31): Sits near 7.62–7.66, providing dynamic support.

Fibonacci mapping

• Oct 10 low (5.405) to Oct 29 high (8.254): key retracements from the high are 23.6% 7.58, 38.2% 7.17, 50% 6.83, 61.8% 6.49. The pullback bottomed at 6.97 (between 38.2% and 50%), then reversed higher — a constructive higher-low versus the 50% line.
• Larger swing Aug 14 high (10.186) to Oct 10 low (5.405): 50% level ≈ 7.80; 61.8% ≈ 8.46. Price is reclaiming the 50% pivot; next Fibonacci magnet above is 8.46, aligning with the upper resistance cluster.
• Measured move: The intraday impulse from 7.31 → 7.94 (~0.63) projects 7.82 + 0.63 = 8.45 on a clean continuation. Conservative interim targets lie at 8.10–8.25 given overhead supply.

Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• Today’s candle: Wide-range bullish close near the high with a long lower tail — demand stepping in on dips.
• Intraday: Flag/handle-like pause between 7.82–7.88 after a steady push — a continuation pattern. Break of 7.94 triggers momentum follow-through.
• No obvious reversal signals into the close; selling attempts were shallow and absorbed.

Elliott-wave style read (tactical)

• From 6.97: Wave 1 up to ~7.68, Wave 2 pullback to ~7.58–7.60, Wave 3 extension to ~7.94, Wave 4 flat flag ~7.82–7.88, setting up a Wave 5 probe toward 8.15–8.25. If strength persists, extended 5th could tag 8.35–8.45.

Mean reversion vs momentum

• Momentum: Improving (RSI/MACD/OBV up, price > VWAP and > SMA10/20).
• Mean reversion: Price is not overbought on daily; Bollinger still offers headroom.
• Skew: Favor momentum continuation with controlled risk.

Risk factors and invalidation

• Data gap (Nov 5–6) suggests some feed irregularity; focus on intraday tape of Nov 7 which is clean.
• Political/headline sensitivity can spike volatility and cause air pockets; respect stops.
• Invalidation: Sustained trade below 7.56–7.60 (loss of intraday structure and VWAP cluster) weakens the long setup; below 7.31 negates the pattern and reopens 7.00 tests.

Scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Early dip into 7.74–7.78 gets bought; push through 7.94 to 8.10–8.25; settles around 8.05–8.20.
• Bull case (25%): Quick breakout over 7.94 without deep dip; momentum extends toward 8.35–8.45 (measured move); stalls near 8.46 Fib/cluster.
• Bear case (20%): Failure through 7.74; accelerates below 7.60 toward 7.45 and possibly 7.31; rebound later to 7.55–7.65.

Trade plan (tactical long)

• Rationale: Short-term trend up, intraday higher lows, price reclaiming the 50% macro pivot (7.80) and flirting with a daily Kumo breakout. Momentum and volume confirm accumulation. Risk is well-defined under 7.56–7.60.
• Entry preference: Buy-the-dip limit in 7.74–7.78 zone, aligned with intraday value/VWAP and just below the 7.80 pivot to improve R:R while maintaining high fill probability.
• Alternative trigger: Buy-stop through 7.95 on breakout confirmation if dip doesn’t materialize; target then shifts to 8.30–8.45 with tighter stop.
• Take-profit objective (24h horizon): 8.22–8.28 (first resistance shelf and conservative measured objective). Stretch: 8.35–8.45 if breakout momentum is strong.
• Risk management (not part of output fields): Initial stop 7.56 (under structure). From a 7.77 entry, risk ≈0.21; TP 8.24 reward ≈0.47; R:R ≈2.2:1. Trail under higher lows once price clears 7.95.

Why not short here?

• Shorting into a wide-range up close, positive momentum shift, and a potential cloud breakout is lower probability. Better short location would be higher (8.30–8.45) or on clear breakdown below 7.56 with a failed retest.

Conclusion

• Setup quality: Above average for a tactical long with defined risk and favorable asymmetry.
• Expectation: Modest dip then retest/clear 7.94; base target 8.22–8.28 within 24 hours, with upside tail risk to ~8.45 on strong tape.