Ascending Triangle Coiled: Targeting an 8.22 Pop on TRUMP Within 24 Hours

Overview and time frame

• Instrument: OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP), USD-denominated
• Current price (last print): 7.7793
• Data span: Aug 12, 2025 through Nov 9, 2025, with hourly for Nov 9
• Objective: 24-hour tactical trade plan using multi-method technical confluence

1. Top-down trend, structure, and regime

• Market regime: After a capitulation event on Oct 10 (intraday low ~2.77, close ~5.41) TRUMP established a higher-volatility base in the 5.8–6.3 zone, followed by an upside expansion Oct 27–29 to mid–high 7s/low 8s. Since Nov 3–4 pullback (~7.27/6.97), price has formed a sequence of higher lows and stabilized above 7.50. Short-term regime: constructive, range-with-upside bias.
• Daily structure: Series of higher lows: Nov 4 low 6.967 → Nov 7 low 7.311 → Nov 8 low 7.394 → Nov 9 intraday low ~7.42. Horizontal resistance shelf near 7.88–7.99 (today’s high ~7.888; prior pivot high Oct 31 ~7.991). This maps an ascending triangle: rising demand line under price, flat supply zone just below 8.00.
• Intraday (hourly) structure: Nov 9 session built value 7.72–7.80 with an earlier push to 7.888, then shallow pullback to 7.719, reclaiming 7.78 into the close. That’s constructive (buyers absorbing dips; no aggressive supply at VWAP).

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 5-day SMA ≈ 7.74; 10-day SMA ≈ 7.62; 20-day SMA ≈ 7.10 (estimates from closes provided).
• Alignment: Price (7.78) > 5SMA (7.74) > 10SMA (7.62) > 20SMA (7.10). Bullish short-term stack; suggests positive momentum and rising baseline.
• Implication over 24h: With price riding above 5/10 SMAs and comfortably over the 20SMA, pullbacks toward 7.70–7.60 likely see dip demand; a test of overhead resistant band (7.90–8.05) is favored.

3. Momentum oscillators

• 14-day RSI (approx.): ~62. Interpreted: Bullish momentum without being overbought; room to run before 70–75 exhaustion zone.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Rising and crossing above midline; confirms RSI reading—early/mid impulse phase rather than late-stage.
• MACD (12/26/9, qualitative): The Oct 31–Nov 5 rally turned MACD positive; the subsequent consolidation flattened the signal. On hourly, histogram flipped positive during the 16:00 UTC push and remained near zero with slight positive bias. No bearish cross evident; momentum supportive of a retest higher.
• DMI/ADX (qualitative): +DI above –DI with rising but moderate ADX (~17–22 equivalent), indicating trend initiation rather than mature trend; breakouts can extend when ADX is building.

4. Volatility and bands

• 14-day ATR (approx.): ~0.70–0.75; session-range implication next 24h: typical movement ~±0.7 around mean, with tails to ±1.0 on event spikes.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ≈ 7.10; estimated upper band ~8.1–8.3 based on recent stdev. Current price 7.78 is below the upper band, leaving upside room. Band width is expanding modestly post-consolidation; this often precedes directional follow-through.

5. Market profile, VWAP, and volume

• Volume clusters since Oct 27 show heavy acceptance 7.55–7.75 (high-volume node/POC around ~7.62). Price holding above this node tends to magnetize toward the next supply node (7.95–8.15).
• Hourly VWAP (today) approximates mid 7.7s; last trade held marginally above VWAP—healthy for bulls into the session close.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising from Nov 8–9 sessions; no distribution signature on the intraday pullback from 7.888.

6. Support and resistance map (confluence)

• Immediate supports: 7.72–7.75 (intraday value), 7.66–7.70 (hourly demand), 7.50–7.55 (daily shelf), 7.27 (Nov 3 close), 6.97 (swing low).
• Immediate resistances: 7.88–7.99 (multi-touch cap; today’s high 7.888, Oct 31 close 7.991), 8.10–8.28 (Oct 29 close 8.254; BB upper vicinity), 8.64 (Oct 30 high area), 8.90–9.00 (legacy overhead supply from Sep).
• Pattern target: Ascending triangle height ~7.90 – 7.42 = 0.48. Breakout projection: 7.90 + 0.48 = 8.38 (first extension), with interim checkpoints 8.10/8.25.

7. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Fib retracement of the Oct 29 high (8.254) to Nov 4 low (6.967):
  • 38.2%: ~7.459 (held and turned into support)
  • 50%: ~7.610 (reclaimed)
  • 61.8%: ~7.761 (current price slightly above—bullish acceptance over golden ratio)
  • 78.6%: ~7.979 (aligns with the cap just below 8.00). Clearing 7.98–8.00 unlocks the 8.25–8.38 area.
• Measured flag scenario: Nov 4–5 impulse (6.97 → 8.10 = 1.13) followed by consolidation. A break above 8.00 adds ~1.13 potential measured move to ~9.13 in a multi-day scenario; within 24h, 8.20–8.30 is the realistic tranche.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above Tenkan (~7.64) and above/balancing near Kijun (~7.35–7.40), cloud likely overhead into ~8.1–8.3. Interpretation: Bullish short-term with cloud resistance just above; a close above ~8.1–8.2 tends to flip the local regime decisively positive.

9. Statistical mean reversion and z-score

• Distance from 20SMA: (7.78 – 7.10) ≈ +0.68; if daily stdev ≈ 0.50–0.55, z ≈ +1.2–1.4. Not stretched; room to extend to z ≈ +2 without immediate mean-reversion pressure.

10. Elliott wave (micro)

• Potential wave 1: 6.97 → 8.10; wave 2: 8.10 → 7.50 area; wave 3 initiation underway targeting ≥8.25. Within 24h, completion of subwave iii into 8.20–8.30 is plausible if 7.70s hold.

11. Risk and scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (55–60%): Hold above 7.70–7.72, probe 7.90–7.99, break and test 8.15–8.25; intraday high can extend to 8.28 if bands widen.
• Pullback case (25–30%): Fail to break 7.90; drift to 7.60–7.65; deeper shake to 7.50 possible but demand expected at first touch.
• Bear tail (10–15%): Range failure; lose 7.50 decisively, revisit 7.27–7.35 pocket. Requires negative catalyst or broad risk-off.

12. Trade plan synthesis

• Bias: Buy-the-dip with breakout continuation potential, anchored by ascending triangle and golden-ratio acceptance.
• Entry logic: Optimal risk-adjusted entry is a limit buy into 7.72–7.75 (retest of intraday value and 5SMA vicinity). Alternative momentum entry: buy-stop through 7.905 to capture breakout if dip does not occur.
• Target logic: First take-profit before major supply at 8.25 (and below BB upper), with slippage margin → 8.22 chosen. This harvests the triangle’s initial expansion while avoiding the heavier 8.25–8.30 liquidity wall.
• Risk control (recommended, not part of requested fields): Protective stop 7.57–7.60 (below hourly demand and prior micro swing), yielding approx risk ~0.15–0.17 vs reward ~0.48, R:R ≈ 2.7–3.2:1 from a 7.74 entry. If using a more conservative stop at 7.49 (below 7.50 shelf), R:R ≈ 2:1.

13. Timing and execution

• Liquidity: Recent volumes are lighter than late Oct/early Nov spikes, favoring limit orders over market.
• Execution plan: Place a 7.74 limit buy. If not filled and price presses 7.90–7.99, consider a secondary buy-stop trigger at ~7.905 with the same 8.22 target to participate in breakout.

Conclusion and 24-hour outlook

• Confluence of bullish factors: price > 5/10/20 SMAs, RSI ~62, acceptance above 61.8% Fib of the 8.254→6.967 leg, ascending triangle pressing on 7.90–8.00, supportive intraday profile above VWAP/POC. Expect a test and likely breach of 7.90 with follow-through toward 8.15–8.25 within 24 hours. Best-in-class entry is a minor pullback into 7.72–7.75. Target 8.22 for high fill probability before major supply.