TRUMP Oversold Setup: Pivot Reclaim and Bullish Divergences Point to a 24h Relief Bounce

TRUMP (OFFICIAL TRUMP) — full-spectrum technical read, multi-timeframe, and 24h path projection

1. Market structure and trend context (daily)

• Primary trend: After the late-October spike (10/27–10/31) and the 11/10 blow-off (intraday high ~9.50), price has been in a persistent distribution-to-downtrend. From the 11/10 close (8.8437) to now (6.3655) is a ~−28% drawdown.
• Lower highs and lower lows define a descending channel. However, the last three daily sessions show a slowdown in downside momentum and an emerging stabilization band around 6.22–6.37.
• Capitulation candidate: 11/21 printed a heavy-volume red session (close 6.2682, low 6.0822) followed by lighter-volume, tight-range sessions (11/22–11/23). That’s a classic sell-exhaustion signature.

2. Momentum diagnostics

• 14-day RSI (approx): Using the last 14 daily closes (11/10–11/23), avg gain ≈ 0.0250, avg loss ≈ 0.2020 → RS ≈ 0.124 → RSI ≈ 11.0. This is deeply oversold and historically rare. Even within a downtrend, such readings favor a relief bounce toward short MAs.
• Daily MACD (qualitative): Below zero for weeks; histogram has begun contracting as the last two sessions stabilized. That typically precedes a bearish-to-less-bearish inflection and can lead to a short-term bullish crossover on lower timeframes first.
• Stochastic (inferred): Buried in oversold for multiple sessions; curling up on intraday frames, consistent with a short-term bounce attempt.

3. Moving averages and mean reversion

• 7-day SMA (approx) ≈ 6.6406; price 6.3655 is ~4.1% below. A reflexive push toward the 7SMA is a common outcome after extreme RSI.
• 14-day SMA (approx) ≈ 7.1006; still well above price, so the medium-term trend remains down; bounces should be treated as tactical.
• 20-day SMA (qualitative) likely around low-7s; current price is meaningfully below the 20SMA, heightening mean-reversion odds.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) qualitative read: Price has hugged the lower band for several sessions; bands were wide during the early-November selloff but are now starting to compress on daily while hourly volatility normalizes. A small-band phase often precedes a directional move; with RSI extreme and seller exhaustion, upside mean reversion has higher immediate odds.
• ATR(14) daily remains elevated versus early October, but intraday ATR is compressing, often a prelude to a break from the micro-range.

5. Volume and participation

• 11/21’s high volume on a large red candle, followed by lighter volumes on 11/22–11/23, is textbook depletion of sellers. The 11/23 19:00 UTC hourly candle saw a localized volume uptick accompanying a push from the 6.29s to the 6.37s, suggesting dip absorption near 6.27–6.31.

6. Support/resistance map

• Immediate support: 6.27–6.31 (tested multiple times intraday on 11/23; today’s low 6.268). Below that, 6.22 (11/22 low) and the capitulation pivot 6.08 (11/21 low).
• Overhead resistance: 6.40–6.45 (multiple intra-hour rejections; aligns with R2 pivot below), then 6.64–6.70 (7-day SMA cluster and prior breakdown shelf), followed by 7.00 (psychological/round number).

7. Intraday (hourly) structure and pivots

• Today’s range: ~6.27–6.43; price is currently 6.3655 after reclaiming the session pivot zone.
• Pivot framework (computed from 11/22 H/L/C ≈ 6.3652/6.2255/6.2941): • P ≈ 6.2949 • R1 ≈ 6.3643 (now reclaimed) • R2 ≈ 6.4346 (today’s intraday high kissed this zone) • R3 ≈ 6.5040 • S1 ≈ 6.2246, S2 ≈ 6.1552, S3 ≈ 6.0849
• Price above P and back over R1 is constructive; upside supply sits between R2 and R3 (6.43–6.50).

8. Pattern work

• Falling wedge (daily) characteristics: Converging lower highs and lower lows since 11/10 with diminishing momentum and volume — a setup that often resolves upward with a measured move to the wedge top or the 7–20 day MAs. Confirmation requires a decisive close above ~6.45–6.50.
• Candlestick sequence (daily): 11/21 large bearish candle with long lower tail; 11/22 small-bodied stabilization; 11/23 green day so far — resembles a Morning Star variation if today closes firm, often followed by a 1–3 day relief rally.
• Bullish divergence (micro): Hourly momentum oscillators are attempting higher lows versus price retesting ~6.27–6.31, signaling seller fatigue.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price under the cloud with a wide gap — medium-term bearish remains intact. However, Tenkan-sen is flattening; flat Kijun on lower frames tends to act as a magnet in the 6.34–6.37 zone (now reclaimed), supporting a push toward 6.44–6.50 if momentum persists.
• 1h: Price oscillates around a thin future cloud; Tenkan curling up toward the Kijun with a potential bullish cross setup, consistent with a short-term pop.

10. Fibonacci reference (near-term)

• Using swing low 6.082 (11/21) to swing high 9.503 (11/10): • 23.6% ≈ 6.889 • 38.2% ≈ 7.389 • 50% ≈ 7.792
• Current price (6.37) is still below 23.6%. A modest mean-reversion snap can target 6.50 first; a stronger day could reach into the low 6.6x (toward the 7SMA), but that would likely need expanding volume.

11. VWAP and micro mean reversion

• Intraday VWAP (11/23) is approximately mid-6.3s; price is trading marginally above it after multiple VWAP tests — a short-term bullish tell so long as 6.31–6.33 continues to underpin.

12. 24-hour scenario probabilities and path

• Base case (≈60%): Grind higher within the range; test and attempt to pierce R2 at 6.43, with wicks toward 6.48–6.50 (R3). Consolidation likely between 6.36 and 6.48.
• Bull case (≈15%): Stronger relief rally clears 6.50 on expanding volume, extending toward 6.60–6.65 (7SMA approach). Would require a clean hourly close above 6.50 and follow-through.
• Bear case (≈25%): Rejection near 6.43–6.50 and a slip back through 6.31; if 6.27 fails, price revisits 6.22; extreme bears could probe 6.08, but odds diminished unless volume spikes back on the sell side.

13. Synthesis

• Medium-term trend: down.
• Short-term condition: oversold with seller exhaustion; multiple indicators (RSI extreme, pivot reclaim, hourly divergences) favor a near-term bounce.
• Tactical bias for next 24h: Buy-the-dip within 6.30–6.33 aiming for a push into 6.45–6.50, with potential extension to 6.60–6.65 if momentum strengthens.

14. Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Long on intraday pullback.
• Optimal entry (limit): 6.32 (near the intraday demand band and just above P ≈ 6.2949, maximizing reward while respecting structure).
• Take-profit target (24h): 6.49 (just shy of R3 ≈ 6.5040 to increase fill probability). Stretch target if momentum expands: 6.62–6.65 (not the main TP for 24h, but a possible runner if you scale).
• Risk controls (recommended though not requested): Protective stop 6.19–6.22 (below S1 and the 11/22 low), giving an indicative R:R ≈ (6.49–6.32)/(6.32–6.21) ≈ 0.17/0.11 ≈ 1.5.

Conclusion: Despite the broader downtrend, the weight of short-term evidence suggests a 24-hour relief rally is more likely than immediate trend continuation. Tactical long favored on a dip, targeting a move toward 6.49.