From Spring to Squeeze: TRUMP Coils Above $6 for a Tactical Push Toward R1/R2

Comprehensive multi-method technical audit (daily + intraday)

1. Market structure and context

• Regime: Since the 11-10 peak (~8.84), TRUMP has been in a persistent downtrend with a capitulation-style washout to 12-01 low (5.73), followed by a modest two-session stabilization (12-02 and 12-03). Current price 6.050 is still below key moving averages, but above the very short-term mean.
• Mean-reversion posture: Price recently tagged the lower Bollinger region and bounced; now oscillating just over the 5-day SMA while still below the 10/20-day SMAs. This is a classic early-stage mean-reversion setup rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

2. Trend diagnostics (moving averages, slopes, crossovers)

• 5D SMA ≈ 5.96: Price 6.05 is above the 5D SMA (short-term positive bias).
• 10D SMA ≈ 6.09: Price is slightly below, indicating nascent strength but not yet a full short-term trend reversal.
• 20D SMA ≈ 6.44: Price is clearly below; intermediate trend remains down.
• 50D SMA (approx) > 6.7: Price is below; higher timeframe trend remains down. Implication: The very short timeframe has turned up versus a still-bearish medium-term trend. Expect mean-reversion rallies to face resistance at successive MAs (6.10–6.45 band).

3. Momentum and oscillators (RSI, Stochastics, MACD)

• Daily RSI(14): Likely in low-to-mid 40s, improving from oversold—supports a rebound, but not yet a momentum breakout.
• Stochastic (daily): Rising from oversold toward midline—typical of early mean-reversion phases.
• MACD (daily): Negative but flattening; histogram contraction signals downside momentum decay and a potential bullish crossover on continued stabilization.
• Intraday RSI (hourly): Hovering near 50–55 as price coils in a tight 6.00–6.08 band—supports a mild upward bias. Implication: Momentum is recovering from oversold; confirmation would be a push through 6.13–6.20.

4. Volatility and range (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• BB(20): Mid ~6.44; lower band estimated near ~5.55–5.60; price bounced off the lower band area (5.73) and is moving toward the mid-band. This favors further mean-reversion toward 6.20–6.30 before heavier resistance.
• ATR(14) daily: ~0.38–0.45. A 24h move of ±0.4 around 6.05 suggests a typical range of 5.65–6.45. Implication: There is room for a 2–3% push higher without stressing volatility norms; rallies beyond 6.30 would likely need fresh participation.

5. Price patterns (candles, channels, wedges)

• Falling channel/wedge: The sequence of lower highs since 11-10 and the sharp 12-01 low suggest a potential falling-wedge termination with a subsequent mean-reversion bounce underway.
• Candlesticks: 12-02 and 12-03 print small real bodies (stabilization/indecision) following a long down-leg—often precedes short-term upside resolution. Implication: Pattern context supports a mild upside resolution into first resistance layers.

6. Support/resistance mapping (multi-timeframe)

• Immediate supports: 6.00 (psychological/VWAP cluster); 5.95; key swing low 5.73 (12-01). A break/retest of 6.00 is a typical bid zone intraday.
• Near resistances: 6.10–6.15 (R1 cluster and prior supply), 6.22–6.30 (prevalent November value area), 6.37–6.45 (10/20D SMA band and Fib 23.6% ≈ 6.47), and heavier supply 6.65–6.86. Implication: First meaningful resistance sits ~6.13 then ~6.22–6.30.

7. Fibonacci structure (swing 11-10 high 8.84 to 12-01 low 5.73)

• 23.6% ≈ 6.47; 38.2% ≈ 6.92; 50% ≈ 7.29. Price hasn’t even tagged the shallow 23.6% yet, underscoring room for a corrective bounce. However, the 6.45–6.50 zone should act as strong resistance if reached later. Implication: Over the next 24h, a push into 6.20–6.30 is more realistic than a full 23.6% retrace.

8. Ichimoku (approximate)

• Price < Tenkan and Kijun (estimated near 6.20–6.40) and below the cloud (7s). Bearish higher-timeframe state, but a recapture of Tenkan/Kijun would validate the mean-reversion leg. Implication: 6.20–6.40 is the battleground for transition from bounce to genuine trend repair.

9. Volume, OBV, and money flow

• Volume: Elevated during selloffs; lighter on stabilization bounces—typical early base behavior. 12-03 intraday shows the largest hour volume around 19:00 near 6.035, suggesting absorption/accumulation around VWAP.
• OBV/MFI (qualitatively): Flattening after heavy distribution, consistent with base-building. Implication: Buyers are probing near 6.00; confirmation requires expanding volume on breaks above 6.13/6.20.

10. Market profile / VWAP / Pivots

• Intraday VWAP today clusters ~6.04–6.05; price slightly above—mild long bias while holding above VWAP.
• Classic daily pivots using 12-02 (H 6.0565, L 5.6963, C 5.9920): • Pivot P ≈ 5.9149 • R1 ≈ 6.1335 • R2 ≈ 6.2752 • R3 ≈ 6.4937 • S1 ≈ 5.7733 • S2 ≈ 5.5546 Implication: Price > P and below R1 favors a push toward R1 first, then a possible test of the R1–R2 band.

11. DeMark / Wyckoff / Elliott heuristics

• TD Sequential: Likely completed a 9-count into the 12-01 low; subsequent stabilization aligns with a TD Buy reaction.
• Wyckoff: 12-01 resembles a spring/shakeout with current tests holding above 6.00—Phase B/C-like basing behavior.
• Elliott: Five-wave decline into 12-01; present bounce as an A-wave of an A–B–C corrective structure. Next 24h likely continues A-wave toward R1/R2.

12. Higher timeframe regression and mean

• 20D regression mean near the 20D SMA (~6.44). Current at 6.05 sits in the lower half of the channel; mean reversion bias is upward, but full reversion may take multiple sessions.

13. Risk diagnostics and invalidation

• Bullish case fragile while below 6.13–6.20; losing 6.00 with momentum reopens 5.85 then 5.73.
• Tail risk: If liquidity thins, spikes can occur; however, current coil and VWAP adhesion are constructive for a controlled move higher.

14. 24-hour probability-weighted outlook

• Base case (≈60%): Hold 6.00–6.02 support, drift to 6.13–6.22, with intraday spikes possibly testing 6.27 (R2) if volume expands.
• Bear case (≈30%): Slip under 6.00 to 5.94–5.98, probing liquidity; rebound attempt still likely back toward 6.05.
• Tail (≈10%): Break of 5.90 leads to a stop-led drive toward 5.78–5.73 before sharp mean-reversion bounce.

Synthesis and trade plan

• Edge type: Short-term mean reversion with mild breakout potential. Confluence from BB tag-and-bounce, RSI recovery, VWAP support, and pivot alignment to R1.
• Tactics: Prefer a buy-the-dip limit near VWAP/round-number support to improve R:R, targeting the R1–R2 pocket.

Decision: Buy (Long). Rationale: Improving short-term momentum above 5D SMA, stabilization above VWAP, and nearby support at 6.00 versus upside magnets at 6.13 and 6.22–6.27. Medium-term trend is still down, so this is a tactical 24h trade, not a trend reversal bet.

Execution parameters

• Entry (limit): 6.03 (buy-the-dip near intraday VWAP and micro-support; acceptable range 6.02–6.05).
• Profit target (24h): 6.22 (front-run the 6.275 R2 zone and the 6.22–6.30 supply band).
• Optional risk control (not required but prudent): Stop 5.94 (below 6.00 sweeps); tighter traders may use 5.98. This yields a roughly 1:2 to 1:2.5 R:R depending on fill.

What would change my mind?

• A decisive hourly close below 5.98 on expanding volume (bearish), or an anemic push failing at 6.10 with immediate rejection and OBV rolling over.
• Bullish extension above 6.22 on volume opens 6.27 and, if momentum persists, a stretch goal 6.30–6.35.

Bottom line

• Expect a controlled upward drift toward 6.13–6.22 within the next 24 hours, provided 6.00 holds. Tactical long favored with a limit entry near 6.03 and TP near 6.22.