Fade the Pop: Short TRUMP Into 5.18–5.23 Resistance, Targeting a 5.00 Retest

Executive Summary

• Bias next 24h: Slight bearish-to-sideways. Expect a retest of 5.00–5.02 with upside caps 5.18–5.23 unless momentum/volume expand.
• Trade plan: Fade into strength near 5.16–5.20 (prior intraday supply and daily R1 zone). Target a push back toward the 5.00 handle. Invalidation on acceptance >5.30.

1. Price Action and Trend Structure (Daily and Intraday)

• Regime: Since early November’s impulse high (Nov 10 ~9.50), structure has transitioned to persistent lower highs and lower lows. From Dec 1 close 5.73 to Dec 18 low 5.01, price channels down. Current price 5.13 is below recent swing-lows-turned-resistance (5.33–5.42), confirming a bearish regime.
• Recent daily sequence: • Dec 9–Dec 12: failed bounce (5.94 to 5.61) → sellers active on pops. • Dec 14–Dec 18: continued drip lower to new local low 5.01; today a modest mean-revert to 5.13, but sellers defended 5.15–5.16 several times intraday.
• Intraday 12–24h microstructure (hourly): Multiple failures at 5.15–5.16 (07:00, 15:00–16:00, 19:00 UTC). Current price sits near VWAP and daily pivot band, signaling equilibrium with a bearish tilt given the broader trend.

2. Key Supports/Resistances and Levels That Matter

• Supports: 5.12 (minor), 5.05–5.08 (Bollinger lower band vicinity/cluster), 5.00 psych, 4.93 (S1 projection), 4.85–4.88 (S2/prev demand). A clean break and acceptance below 4.98 opens 4.85 quickly.
• Resistances: 5.15–5.16 (intraday supply and near today’s R1), 5.23–5.27 (23.6%–38.2% retrace of the Dec 9→Dec 18 downswing; also tomorrow’s likely R1/R2 band), 5.33–5.36 (Dec 16 swing high), 5.42–5.56 (prior breakdown shelf). Expect first contact rejections at 5.16 and 5.23.

3. Classical Technical Indicators

• Moving Averages (approx): • SMA20 ≈ 5.8 (downward slope). Price at 5.13 is well below → bearish momentum. • SMA50 ≈ 6.7–6.9; SMA200 (roughly) higher. Full stack bearish (price < SMA20 < SMA50 < SMA200). • EMAs (12/26): both below zero-line on MACD proxy; short EMA below long EMA; slope negative. No bullish crossover in sight.
• RSI(14) daily: Estimated 32–36. Mildly oversold, but not at extremes; in bearish regimes, RSI often stalls 35–45 on bounces. Intraday RSI topped near 55–60 on tests of 5.15—consistent with fade-the-rip conditions.
• MACD daily: Below zero, histogram slightly contracting after the 5.01 low—early mean reversion, not a confirmed reversal. Momentum remains negative until price reclaims ≥5.33 with follow-through.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ≈ 5.8; lower band ≈ 5.05–5.10. Price clinging to/just above lower band after tagging it on Dec 18. Typical behavior in downtrends: grind along lower band, punctuated by brief reversion pops to the mid-band’s direction of travel (down). Current location favors sells into strength rather than chasing breakdowns.
• Keltner Channels (ATR-based): Price is near/just outside lower KC on daily—signals short-term stretch; however, without a volume expansion, mean-reversion caps near 5.20–5.30 likely to be sold.
• ATR(14) daily: ~0.18–0.22. Implies a 24h typical range of ±3.5–4.5%. Today’s realized range and yesterday’s 0.21 range align.
• ADX(14): Likely low-to-moderate (~22–26), indicating a persistent but not explosive downtrend—good for sell-the-rally setups.

4. Pattern and Structure Analysis

• Channel: Descending channel from Dec 1; price recently bounced off channel support around 5.00. Upper channel resistance aligns with 5.23–5.33 over the next session, converging with Fibonacci and prior supply.
• Candles: Dec 18 printed a near-full-body red into new local lows (not a classic hammer). Today’s intraday doji-like behavior at resistance suggests supply is still present. Repeated upper wicks near 5.16 denote seller defense.
• Volume: Downshift from November’s expansionary spikes. Recent daily volumes 150–330M—no capitulation spike yet. Rallies on lighter volume are less trustworthy.

5. Fibonacci Mapping (latest swing: Dec 9 high 5.936 → Dec 18 low 5.012)

• 23.6%: ~5.23
• 38.2%: ~5.36
• 50%: ~5.47
• 61.8%: ~5.58 Given the bearish backdrop, 23.6% and 38.2% are typical stall zones. The 5.23 shelf aligns tightly with intraday supply and projected R-levels—prime fade area.

6. Pivot Levels (computed from Dec 18 H/L/C ~5.188/4.976/5.012)

• Pivot P ≈ 5.059
• R1 ≈ 5.141 (today’s intraday failures clustered right above this level)
• R2 ≈ 5.271
• S1 ≈ 4.929 If price revisits R1–R2 (5.14–5.27), odds favor rejection unless accompanied by clear volume expansion and higher-low construction on intraday.

7. Market Profile/Order Flow Heuristics

• Repeated rejections 5.15–5.16 suggest resting offers/algos defending that pocket. Below 5.12, liquidity thins toward the 5.05–5.00 zone, where buyers show but not aggressively. Acceptance below 5.00 could accelerate toward 4.85–4.88 (prior demand and S2).

8. Cross-Method Synthesis

• Trend/MAs/MACD: Bearish.
• Oscillators: Mildly oversold but not extreme; supportive of fade-the-pop rather than knife-catching breakdowns.
• Volatility: Moderate ATR; room for a 0.15–0.20 swing—fits a 5.18 short to 5.00 target timeline.
• Levels Confluence: 5.15–5.23 is a convergence zone (intraday supply, R1/R2 band, 23.6% fib, channel resistance). Strong confluence to sell. 5.00 is a magnet/psych level.

9. Scenario Probabilities (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Range to slightly down. Pop into 5.16–5.20 gets sold; drift back to 5.02–5.05; possible pin of 5.00.
• Upside surprise (15%): Break and hold above 5.23 with volume → squeeze to 5.33–5.36; still heavy there unless momentum/volume surge persists.
• Downside extension (30%): Clean break 4.98 → momentum push to 4.88; modest bounce after.

10. Risk Management and Execution

• Entry: Stagger shorts 5.16–5.20 to improve average with slippage allowance. Use a resting limit or patience on a rejection wick.
• Invalidation: Hourly close >5.30 or strong acceptance above 5.33 (fib 38.2/channel cap) invalidates the short idea near-term.
• Targeting: First target 5.02–5.00; extension target 4.88 if momentum expands. Given the 24h window, 5.00 is the realistic TP; 4.88 is a runner if breakdown occurs quickly.
• R:R: From 5.18 entry, TP 5.00 = 0.18 reward; stop 5.31 = 0.13 risk; R:R ~1.4. If filled at 5.20 and extended to 4.95, R:R ≥2.

11. What Would Flip Me Long?

• A decisive reclaim and hold above 5.23 (23.6% fib) and then 5.33 (Dec 16 high/38.2% fib) with rising volume and higher lows on 15–60m. That would target 5.47–5.58. Until then, rallies are sells.

Conclusion

• With the prevailing downtrend, repeated intraday rejections near 5.15–5.16, and confluence of resistance into 5.18–5.23, odds favor fading strength. Expect a retest of 5.02–5.00 within 24h. Use 5.30–5.33 as the invalidation band. Execution preference: place a short limit around 5.18; take profit near 5.00; reassess if volume regime changes.