TRUMP Coils Above the Pivot: Bull-Flag Continuation Setup Targeting a 5.70–5.75 Retest

Market context (what the tape is saying)

Instrument: OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP)
Current price: $5.4377 (as of 2026-01-11 21:57 UTC)

1) Multi-timeframe structure

Daily trend (Oct → late Dec)

• Strong speculative blow-off late Oct/early Nov (peak daily close ~8–9 area), followed by a persistent downtrend into late Dec.
• Price formed a descending sequence of lower highs/lower lows from mid-Nov onward, culminating in a late-Dec base around $4.80–$5.00.

Daily trend (late Dec → now)

• Since 2026-01-01, we see a reversal / higher-low construction:
  • 12/31 close ~4.8017 → 1/02 close ~5.0470 → 1/05 close ~5.6257.
• After that pop, price entered a tight consolidation around $5.30–$5.50 (1/06–1/11), which is typical of a market digesting gains.

Interpretation: The larger downtrend has likely transitioned into a base + rebound, and the near-term regime is range-to-slightly-up unless $5.25 breaks.

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2) Support/Resistance mapping (price action + pivots)

Using recent daily and intraday highs/lows:

Key supports

• $5.38–$5.40: intraday pivot (multiple hourly opens/closes clustered here).
• $5.32–$5.33: daily support zone (1/07 low area / consolidation floor).
• $5.25–$5.28: deeper support (1/08 low ~5.2577). A break would likely flip bias bearish.
• $5.00–$5.05: major base zone (late Dec/early Jan).

Key resistances

• $5.56–$5.59: intraday supply (hourly rejection around 13:00–14:00).
• $5.66: session high impulse (hourly spike high ~5.6663).
• $5.70–$5.75: psychological + prior swing congestion.

Interpretation: Price is currently mid-range, slightly above the $5.38 pivot, implying more room upward than downward if support holds.

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3) Momentum & mean-reversion signals (inferred from closes)

Rate of change / swing behavior

• From 1/10 close 5.3970 to current 5.4377: modest up day (+0.75% approx) with a higher intraday high (to ~5.6610) and then pullback.
• That pattern resembles a liquidity sweep / stop-run above local resistance, followed by consolidation rather than a full fade—often bullish if price holds above the prior pivot (here ~5.38–5.40).

RSI-style inference

• The market is not in a runaway trend over the last 5–7 days; candles are relatively contained around 5.30–5.50.
• This typically corresponds to neutral-to-slightly-positive RSI (not overheated), supporting another attempt at the highs.

Interpretation: Momentum is not extreme, so upside retests are plausible without requiring a major correction first.

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4) Volatility & range analysis

Daily true range

• Recent daily ranges are moderate (roughly ~$0.10–$0.30) except today’s extension to ~5.66.
• Today’s intraday high-to-low: ~5.6610 to ~5.3810 = $0.28 (~5.1% of price), which is meaningful but not “blow-off” territory.

Volatility regime

• Post-spike (1/03–1/05) volatility compressed into a sideways coil. Coils often resolve in the direction of the preceding impulse (which was up from 4.80 to 5.62).

Interpretation: Volatility compression after an up-impulse leans toward a bullish continuation—but only if support levels hold.

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5) Volume clues (daily)

• Big volume expansion accompanied the early Jan rally (1/03–1/05), then declining volume during consolidation (1/06–1/10), and a re-expansion on 1/11 (223M vs 127M prior day).
• Re-expanding volume on a day that probed higher (to 5.66) suggests active participation and potential accumulation/rotation rather than a dead bounce.

Interpretation: Volume behavior supports a continuation attempt more than an immediate breakdown.

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6) Pattern recognition

• Daily: Base + rebound, then bull flag / rectangle between ~5.26 and ~5.66.
• Hourly: Push to 5.66, retrace to ~5.42, then stabilize and reclaim ~5.44 by the close.

Measured move concept (rough):

• Flagpole: ~4.80 → ~5.63 = $0.83.
• If price breaks and holds above ~5.66, continuation target can project toward ~6.40–6.50 (aggressive). For a 24h horizon, a more realistic first objective is the 5.70–5.75 zone.

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24-hour forecast (probabilistic)

Base case (55–60%): Mild bullish drift / range expansion upward. Likely retest of $5.56–$5.66 and possible extension to $5.70–$5.75 if momentum catches.

Bear case (30–35%): Failure to hold $5.38–$5.40 leads to mean reversion back to $5.32, possibly $5.26–$5.28.

Tail risk (10%): Broader meme/alt sentiment shock causes fast move to $5.00 (support magnet).

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Trade plan (single decision)

Given the base + consolidation + higher-high probe and supportive volume, the edge favors buying pullbacks rather than shorting mid-range.

Risk logic

• Invalidation sits below the consolidation floor (~5.25–5.28). If that breaks, the “flag” becomes a failed continuation.

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Conclusion

Bias for next 24h: Up / retest highs (with choppy pullbacks).