Exhaustive Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for TRON (TRX) as of June 22, 2025

1. Trend Analysis

Long-term (90-day) Trend

Examining the broader price movements from March through June 2025, TRX exhibited a steady uptrend starting from $0.23 in late March, peaking multiple times in the $0.28–$0.29 range through May and early June. Post-peak in early June, a distinct downward correction is observed, with a new lower high pattern forming and current price at $0.2615.

Intermediate-term (30-day) Trend

A clear reversal after the early June peak at around $0.2919. Lower highs and lower lows characterize the recent candles, with corrections towards $0.26 and repeated failures to reclaim above $0.28, confirming a bearish reversal.

Short-term (7-day) Trend

From June 15th onward, the price attempted but failed to sustain above $0.27. The last 24 hours broke key support at $0.27, cascading to $0.2615 with high volume (signaling increased selling pressure).

2. Volume Analysis

Volumes spiked during price declines, especially during breaks below $0.27 and $0.265. On June 22nd, the daily volume more than doubled relative to previous sessions, coinciding with a sharp drop—an indicator of panic or forced selling, which may invite some mean reversion but more likely confirms the bearish trend.

3. Candlestick and Price Action Patterns

Large red candles dominate the last two daily closes. Wicks on upper sides for recent sessions indicate selling on intra-period rallies (supply-over-demand). Short-term intraday data shows a succession of lower closes without any convincing bullish reversal patterns—no hammer, engulfing, or morning star patterns are evident.

4. Support/Resistance Analysis

• Support Levels:
  • $0.265: Broken decisively, now likely to serve as short-term resistance.
  • $0.26: Approaching, minor historical support; price currently testing this zone.
  • $0.255: Next likely support if $0.26 breaks, minor historical clustering observed here from April-May.
• Resistance Levels:
  • $0.265–$0.271: Recent breakdown area, strong near-term resistance.
  • $0.28: Medium-term resistance established by failed rallies throughout June.

5. Moving Averages (MA)

• 50-day MA: Estimated near $0.272, TRX recently broke below this with decisiveness—strong bearish signal.
• 20-day MA: Estimated near $0.268, price is sharply below, further confirming short-term downside.
• 200-day MA: Well below current price, providing little actionable information for immediate trades.

6. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

While not numerically given, by price action and persistence of down days, RSI is likely falling below 40, possibly approaching oversold, but not yet deeply so—leave room for further downside.

7. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

Based on recent trend inflection, MACD has likely crossed bearish over the last week, with the histogram widening to the downside—confirming strong negative momentum.

8. Bollinger Bands

With increased volatility and a sharp move lower, price is hugging or breaching the lower Bollinger Band, indicative of accelerated bearish momentum and risk of temporary snap-back rallies. However, no mean-reversion signals are confirmed—price is likely to continue drifting lower or consolidate at lower levels before the next decisive move.

9. Order Book and Volume Profile (Inference)

Given historical volume concentrations around $0.255–$0.271, expect significant resistance for any attempt to reclaim $0.265–$0.27. Order book likely thin below $0.26, amplifying risk of further declines toward $0.255.

10. Volatility and Momentum Indicators

ATR (Average True Range) and recent large candles suggest elevated volatility. Downside momentum remains strong with no bullish divergence on shorter timeframes.

11. Elliott Wave Considerations

Current structure resembles a completed five-wave advance (March–June), now embarking on corrective A-B-C wave. This wave C typically targets swing support, which here lines up near $0.255–$0.258.

12. Fundamental Catalysts (Contextual/For Completeness)

Market-wide altcoin sentiment is neutral-to-bearish. No evident network upgrades or positive TRON-specific news to offset technical pressure.

13. Comprehensive Synthesis & Strategy Assessment

• All momentum, trend, and price action indicators are aligned for further downside over the next 24 hours.
• Risk of short-term bounce exists as price nears minor support, but primary momentum favors further testing of lower support.
• The optimal action for a 24-hour swing trade is to open a short (sell) position on a small intraday rally, targeting the next support zone at $0.255.

Conclusion: Odds strongly favor a continuation to the downside. The most strategic entry is a limit order to sell on a retracement toward former support at $0.265. Take profit at the $0.255 level where buyers may re-emerge. A tight stop-loss above $0.271 would control risk due to local volatility. Re-evaluate on any reversal pattern or if $0.255 support produces a strong bounce.

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Final Trading Play:

• Action: Enter Short (Sell) Position
• Open Price: $0.265 (limit order into resistance on minor rebound)
• Take Profit (Close): $0.255 (next key support & volume cluster before further decision)