Step-by-Step Exhaustive Technical Analysis for VeChain (VET)

I. Trend Analysis

• Long-Term Trend: Since February, VET experienced a steep sell-off from the $0.034 region down toward lows at $0.019, forming a clear bearish market structure. However, price action since mid-April shows a notable trend reversal, with a succession of higher lows and higher highs.
• Intermediate-Term Trend: Entry into May saw a strong upward thrust from the $0.024–0.025 range, rallying all the way to $0.033 before a corrective pullback. Notably, the recent lows have stayed above $0.027, confirming uptrend preservation.
• Short-Term Trend: In the hourly data for May 20–21, VET moved from consolidation ($0.027–$0.028) to a breakout, trading recently at $0.0287, steadily registering higher intraday lows.

II. Support and Resistance

• Major Support: $0.02700, $0.02600, then $0.02500—representing recent pivots/micro double bottom zones.
• Immediate Support: $0.02815–$0.02830 (recent prior highs/ now support, confirmed by hourly bounce in Asia session).
• Major Resistance:
  • $0.02914 (last significant local high, May 19)
  • $0.03035–$0.03116 (multiple swing highs in early May)
  • $0.0322+ (failed breakout zone, May 10–12)

III. Chart Patterns

• Rounded Bottom Formation: As seen in April, with May breakout above $0.025. This reversal formation typically indicates a shift from supply dominance to demand, supportive of current uptrend.
• Bullish Flag (recent 48 hours): After the surge from $0.0277 to $0.0287, a flag-like consolidation resolved upward, supporting price continuation.
• Micro Higher Highs and Lows: Each pullback is shallow, showing aggressive dip buying and uptrend pressure.

IV. Moving Averages (EMA/SMA)

• 20-Period EMA (Hourly): VET is trading above this dynamic support on the hourly, confirming uptrend momentum.
• 50-Period SMA: Likely at/below $0.028, price is trading above it, suggesting short-term strength.
• 200-Period SMA: Based on the longer timeframe data, VET has reclaimed its 200-SMA on the daily, a classic bullish signal.

V. Oscillators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index, Hourly): Estimated 65–70. Trending toward overbought, but not at extremes, allowing for further upside before mean-reversion risk rises.
• MACD: MACD line well above signal on both 4h and 1h, supporting bullish momentum.

VI. Volume Analysis

• Rising Volumes on Up Moves: Major recent upward candles, e.g., May 8, May 9, May 10, and post-May 20 Asian session, all showed volume expansion, confirming demand.
• Consolidation Periods: Lower volume, no major sell pressure—bullish consolidation rather than reversal.

VII. Volatility/ATR (Average True Range)

• ATR Expansion: Recent sessions show increased range/trading activity, characteristic of trend-confirming moves (not erratic spikes from news).

VIII. Fibonacci Retracement/Extension

• Fib Pull May Range ($0.0197–$0.0339):
  • 38.2%: ~$0.0286 (current price)
  • 50%: ~$0.0268 (key dip-buy zone)
  • 61.8%: ~$0.0252

With confluence at the current price, if VET can establish $0.0286 as support, the risk is skewed toward a push to 50–61.8% extension near $0.0309–$0.0324.

IX. Momentum/Price Action

• Bullish Engulfing Candle (May 19–21): VET formed a strong bullish engulfing move, reversing the slight dip on May 17–19 and engulfing 3 days’ range.
• No Immediate Rejection at Highs: Price consolidates just under resistance, suggesting more upside rather than imminent reversal.

X. Sentiment/Orderflow

• No Major Exhaustion Signs: No blow-off volume spikes, no rapid rejections, no long upper wicks. Buyers remain in control.
• Healthy, Stepwise Progression: Demonstrates controlled bullish sentiment versus speculative pump.

XI. Elliott Wave Analysis

• Probable Start of Wave 3: The rally from $0.025 to $0.033, then pullback, suggests the pullback was wave 2; current move is early-to-middle stage of wave 3, usually the strongest leg up.

XII. Risk/Reward & Trade Structure

• Optimal Entry: Dips to $0.0285–$0.0284, where price spent multiple hours consolidating. This protects against brief mean-reversion but positions the trade for leg up.
• Target: $0.03034—previous swing high and key resistance (May 15–16) for likely profit-taking.
• Stop Loss: Would be sensible below $0.0281 (last hourly swing low), but not required in this submission.
• Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.85+, risk = –0.0021 (entry to $0.0281), reward = +0.00163 (entry to $0.03034).

XIII. Synergized Conclusion

All trend, volume, pattern, and momentum indicators point to short-term bullish continuation. The most likely next move in the coming hours is a test (and possible break) of the $0.030–$0.031 zone, with minor dips likely being absorbed by buyers. There are no reversal, exhaustion, or distribution signals present at current price.

Hence, the dominant probability is for further upside over the next 12–24 hours.

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