VeChain Price Analysis Powered by AI

VeChain in Freefall: Technical Breakdown Signals Deeper Lows Ahead

Comprehensive Technical Analysis of VeChain (VET) – June 22, 2025

1. Trend Analysis

Daily Trend: After peaking at $0.0339 in mid-May, VET has experienced a pronounced downtrend. The current close ($0.01888) represents a drop of roughly 40% from the local peak.
Short-Term Trend: The last 3 weeks, VET has sequentially broken lower daily support levels: $0.025, $0.023, $0.021, now culminating in today's close below $0.019. Lower highs and lower lows are consistent—a classic bearish structure.
Volume Profile: Notably, major sell-offs are accompanied by volume spikes (May 30, June 13). Recent declines saw persistent above-average volume, reflecting institutional/expert capitulation.

2. Support & Resistance

Immediate Support: The $0.0183 intraday low is a weak and freshly established support. Previous, more significant support ($0.021-$0.022) is now overhead resistance.
Immediate Resistance: There’s an initial resistance at $0.0197 (previous local highs and failed reclaim attempts). The next major resistance is $0.0210, which aligns with last week’s breakdown zone (June 17). Further up, the $0.0235-$0.0250 cluster acts as a formidable ceiling.

3. Moving Averages (MA)

Short-Term MA (9/21 EMA): Both are shedding rapidly, with price below these averages since June 7. The 9EMA is now around $0.0205, the 21EMA near $0.0215—both above the current price, acting as dynamic resistance.
Long-Term MA (50/200 SMA): While exact levels require calculation, with price decisively under the 50SMA for weeks, the long-term trend is confirmed bearish. No meaningful support from MAs exists nearby.

4. Oscillator Analysis

Relative Strength Index (RSI): Based on price action, RSI would be sub-30, signaling oversold conditions. However, oversold can persist or deepen in strong trends; there is no reversal signal yet.
MACD: The trend momentum is clearly negative. The MACD is likely well below the baseline, with the MACD line under the signal line since early June. No bullish cross imminent.
Stochastic Oscillator: If calculated, this too is likely near the lower bound, with no sign of crossing up.

5. Candlestick & Price Action Patterns

Recent Hourlies: Today’s price shows repeated failed attempts to break above $0.019, strong intrabar selling, and each bounce being sold into (e.g., 13:00-15:00 UTC shows a failed recovery and new local lows all day).
Daily Candles: Multiple long upper wicks and large bodies to the downside since June 17 signal relentless selling pressure.
No Clear Reversal Pattern: No hammer, morning star, or engulfing reversal noted at current price.

6. Fibonacci Retracement

Drawn from May high ~$0.0339 to current low ~0.0183: All major retracement levels above current price:
- 23.6% = $0.0219
- 38.2% = $0.0245
- 50% = $0.0261 These now serve as distant resistance targets rather than support.

7. Volatility/ATR Assessment

Average True Range (ATR) over the last week reflects increasing volatility, as seen by large daily swings (June 21: $0.0195-$0.0220, June 22: $0.0183-$0.0201). Expanding volatility in a downtrend often portends further disorder and price extension to the downside.

8. Volume Analysis

Capitulation Markers: High volume on down days (June 13, June 21–22) indicate panic selling, but the absence of a high-volume bounce suggests buyers aren’t stepping in aggressively yet.

9. Market Context (Comparative/Relative Strength)

Underperformance: Compared to broad crypto indexes and other large-cap alts (not provided but inferred from historic VET beta), VET is a relative underperformer, falling further and faster.

10. Sentiment & Market Psychology

Panic/Despair: The volume, lack of bid support, rapid selling, and structural breakdowns signal capitulation and persistent bearish sentiment. Low-risk buyers would wait for a base or reversal structure confirmation.

11. Additional Techniques

Breakdown Play: Failure to defend $0.019 and fresh daily closing lows suggest trend continuation.
Short-Term Momentum: Momentum traders would look for a follow-through to the downside, especially given the lack of bullish divergences.
Liquidity Sweep/Stop-Loss Run: Current move risks sweeping sub $0.0183 stops for another quick markdown potentially toward $0.0175 or even $0.016, searching for true buyer absorption.

Conclusion & 24-Hour Prediction

All studied indicators and techniques confirm a strong bearish environment. There is little technical evidence of reversal or sustained buyer support. Downward momentum is active, and any intraday bounces are likely to be sold into until a genuine capitulation bottom or reversal structure emerges. Price is likely to retest and potentially break today's low of $0.0183 in the next 24 hours—possibly extending to $0.0175. Risk/reward for shorting is strong, especially on failed intraday bounces.

Optimal entry is after a minor reaction rally to $0.0192 (formerly support, now resistance). Target into new daily lows, with a conservative close at $0.0175- $0.0178 area.