VeChain (VET) Technical Analysis & 24-Hour Price Outlook

1. Trend Analysis (Price Action & Structure)

• Mid- and Long-Term Trend (Daily):

  • The chart from late March to early May showed a strong uptrend, peaking at $0.0339 (2025-05-12), followed by a pronounced correction to below $0.025 in early June. The subsequent weeks exhibit lower highs and lower lows, indicating a formation of a broader descending channel or bearish structure.
  • Current price of $0.02083 is not far above the recent swing lows ($0.0192 on 2025-06-22) and well below the early May peak, confirming prevailing bearish sentiment.

• Short-Term Trend (Hourly & Daily):

  • The last 48-hour price action shows a sequence of lower highs and marginally steadily lower closes. Sell-side pressure continues to dominate. The short-term price bounce from $0.0192 to $0.0215 (June 22–24) was unable to break above the $0.02196 resistance before rolling over again. The failure to recover above the $0.022–$0.0225 zone is a bearish sign.

2. Support & Resistance Levels

• Key Supports:
  • $0.0192 (2025-06-22 low)
  • Psychological: $0.0200
  • $0.020415 (intra-hour low on latest chart)
• Key Resistances:
  • $0.0215–$0.0217 (last bounce area and supply)
  • $0.0220 (structural, prior support now turned resistance)
  • $0.0227 (pivot from June 9-16)

3. Volume Profile & Market Participation

• Volume Spikes: Significant volume seen on big red days (e.g., June 13, June 22, and the period May 30–June 5) during breakdowns, indicating distribution. Recent trading shows thinner volumes and lack of aggressive buying.
• Current Volume: Muted and declining during price consolidation, suggesting weak attempt to form a bottom and no clear accumulation.

4. Indicators

• Simple Moving Averages (SMA):

  • Daily 20-SMA: Above current price, likely near $0.0225–$0.023 —acting as dynamic resistance.
  • 200-SMA: Even higher; the price is firmly trading below major trend averages (bearish).

• Relative Strength Index (RSI):

  • Estimated between 35–40 on daily, mildly oversold but not at extreme capitulation (not below 30). There is room for further downside before technical bounce.

• MACD:

  • The MACD (using daily closes) has been trending downward since late May and is below the signal line. No bullish crossover apparent yet.

5. Chart Patterns & Candlestick Analysis

• Descending Channel Formation: Lower highs and lower lows since May 12, with no evidence of a completed reversal pattern.
• Failed Bullish Reversal Attempts: The brief bounce from $0.0192 (June 22) quickly stalled under $0.022, showing aggressive sellers on rallies.
• Recent Candles: Small-bodied candles with lower closes indicate indecision but with a bearish bias. Latest hourly closes are making marginal new lows.

6. Order Flow / Market Sentiment

• Order Book/Volume: No abnormal spikes in demand; sellers have capped advances quickly. The market is not absorbing large buys, suggesting lack of conviction from bulls.
• Sentiment: Newsflow is muted; external fundamental triggers are absent.

7. Volatility Indicators

• ATR Analysis: Average True Range has spiked during big sell-offs and is now consolidating at elevated levels, implying potential for another volatility surge if support breaches.

8. Fibonacci Retracement Levels (from May Top to June Lows)

• Top: $0.0339
• Bottom: $0.0192
• Important Fib Levels:
  • 23.6%: ~$0.0226
  • 38.2%: ~$0.0252 — both are above the current price and act as resistance.

9. Mean Reversion / Oscillator Analysis

• No Sign of Positive Divergence: Both RSI and MACD are making lower lows in line with price.
• No Oversold Bounce Yet: While approaching oversold zones, momentum favors one more leg lower.

10. Summary of Technical Confluence

• Bearish:
  • Price remains in a clear downtrend, back below all major moving averages.
  • Sellers aggressively fade all rally attempts below resistance.
  • No sign of bullish momentum, volume confirmation, or significant divergence.
• Key Bearish Trigger:
  • Any sustained break below $0.0204 will likely bring in fresh sell pressure and could target the recent low at $0.0192, with risk of breakdown toward $0.0183–$0.0185 zone.
• Short-Term Bounce Risk:
  • Some risk of an oversold bounce exists, but without convincing volume or a reversal pattern, these should be viewed as opportunities to re-enter shorts at better prices.

11. Strategy & Trade Management

Short (Sell) Setup:

• Enter short near $0.02090–$0.02100 (close to current price and above short-term support). Risk is well-defined by resistance cluster above (tight stop above $0.0215).
• Target previous swing low ($0.0192) for initial partials; full profit target in the $0.0185 range for maximum reward-to-risk before possible technical bounce. If price dips below $0.0204 and finds no support, momentum sell-off is likely.

Conclusion & Probability Forecast

• The technical outlook remains bearish for the next 24 hours unless there is an aggressive reversal above $0.022. The path of least resistance is down. Price is targeting the previous swing lows with potential for a stop-hunt spike below $0.0190 if selling intensifies. Open a short now or on any shallow bounce into $0.02100–$0.02110; reduce risk if price closes above $0.0217.

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Trade Plan Summary

• Position: Sell (Short)
• Open Price: $0.02090
• Target: $0.01925
• Stop Loss (not asked, but for context): $0.02155

Risk/reward is solid with a high-probability technical setup following chart structure and indicator confluence. Opportunity to add on failed rallies below resistance.