VeChain Price Analysis Powered by AI

VeChain in the Crosshairs: Breakdown Threat Looms as Bears Tighten Their Grip

Step 1: Trend and Price Structure Analysis

Daily Trend Structure:

Major top formed around 0.0323 (May 10–12), followed by a lower high at 0.0306 (May 22) and a steep drop toward the 0.0193–0.0210 area (June 21–28), indicating the market has been deeply corrective for several weeks.
Recent price action from July to August shows a recovery from the lows: after bottoming around 0.0192 (June 22–23), VET rallied towards 0.0284–0.0295 (July 21–22), then experienced another selloff to the 0.0222–0.0242 range, which is where we are now.
The current price at 0.02312 is above the local July lows but below the July highs, suggesting a mid-range position within a larger downtrend.

Short-term Microstructure:

Hourly chart (Aug 2–3) shows a mild recovery off the 0.0222–0.0224 local lows, with a gradual grind up to 0.0233, before weak consolidation between 0.0229 and 0.0233.
Volumes on recent rising candles (July-Aug, hourly) are low-to-moderate, not suggestive of a strong bullish reversal. Price is struggling to break above 0.0233 (recent hourly resistance).

Step 2: Key Support and Resistance Levels ([S/R])

Immediate support: 0.0222–0.0224 (recent local lows, Aug 2–3)
Next support: 0.0218 (June late lows) and 0.0210 (July 1, stronger swing low)
Immediate resistance: 0.0233 (hourly), followed by 0.02345 (pre-large drop cluster, July 31–Aug 1)
Major resistance: 0.0242 (post-breakdown ceiling), then 0.02526 (breakdown point, July 29–30)

Step 3: Technical Indicator Analysis

A. Moving Averages (MA):

20-period MA (estimate): Sloping down, trailing slightly above current price (0.0233–0.0235). Price is unable to close above it on hourly/daily timeframes.
50-period MA (estimate): Well above (0.0247–0.0250), confirming the mid-term downtrend.

B. Relative Strength Index (RSI):

Hourly: Hovering near 45–50; no significant oversold or overbought, but no bullish drive.
Daily: Likely near 40–42, having recovered from oversold but not in bullish territory.

C. MACD:

Recent hourly MACD lines are below zero with a very weak attempt at a crossover, hinting at a technical mean-reversion but no momentum surge.
Daily MACD is flat to slightly negative, supporting the observation of a lack of follow-through on rally attempts.

D. Volume Analysis:

Volume spikes are associated with down moves (capitulation days), while bounces see much weaker volume.
The current grind higher happens on relatively thin activity, showing weak conviction on the long side.

Step 4: Volatility & Pattern Recognition

ATR Analysis: ATR on both daily and hourly is compressing as of August, following the sharp June–July swings. This pattern often precedes an expansionary move – likely tied to the resolution of the current consolidation range.
Chart Pattern: Double bottom around 0.0192 (June 22 & June 28) provided a base for the July rally. The run-up failed at 0.0284–0.0295 (July 21–22), forming a lower high. Since then, we have a descending triangle pattern forming: flat bottom (0.0222), with descending highs from 0.0255, 0.0246, 0.0233. This is typically a bearish continuation formation in a downtrend.

Step 5: Market Psychology & Order Flow

After the mid-July rally was rejected, price failed to re-establish above previous support (now resistance at 0.0245–0.0253). Sellers stepped in each time VET tried to break 0.0233 upwards.
Lack of buyers on upswings—seen in weak volume and shallow advances—suggests risk of further downside if support fails.

Step 6: Scenario Synthesis and Prediction

The descending triangle is close to its apex. Given the context (broader downtrend, lack of strong bullish response), the probability favors a short-term breakdown below the 0.0222–0.0224 support. If the 0.0222 level breaks, the next technical target would be a retest of the 0.0210–0.0214 area.
Upside is capped by stiff resistance in the 0.0233–0.0242 zone, unlikely to be reclaimed in the immediate term without a macro shift.
Volatility compression at the lower-bound level is often a prelude to a momentum-driven move—here, the risk is skewed to the downside.

24h Prediction: Expect choppy to slightly bearish action early, with a likely break of the 0.0222–0.0223 support in the next session. A drop to 0.0214 is the expected move on a breakdown; if the pattern fails, and price surges above 0.0235, the thesis is negated and shorts should be cut.

Risk Management:

Entry: Short as close to 0.02315–0.02318 as possible (current price zone/lower resistance of microstructure).
Stop-loss: 0.0235 (just above micro-range resistance).
Take-profit: 0.0214 (historical support, measured move for triangle breakdown).

Conclusion: The technicals, order flow, and chart patterns collectively favor a short position targeting the breakdown of major support, given persistent bearish sentiment and pattern setup. Bulls have not shown sufficient initiative to warrant a reversal trade at this time.