VeChain Price Analysis Powered by AI

VeChain (VET) Primed for Breakdown: Analysis Signals Renewed Bear Pressure, Ideal Short Setup

Step 1: Chart Pattern Recognition & Trend Analysis

Examining daily candles from early May to August, VET has been volatile, suffering sharp declines from $0.0322 highs (mid-May) to sub-$0.022 levels (mid/late June), with significant volume increases on sharp drop days. Recent recovery attempts in July failed to recapture pivotal resistance at ~$0.0285-$0.029, and the past week shows a progression of lower highs and failed rallies. The 1-hour candles for August 6 illustrate choppy, low-volume, range-bound behavior.

Key Observations:

Clear mid-term downtrend from mid-May peak, with a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating prevailing bearish sentiment.
Short-lived rebounds (notably July’s $0.027-$0.029 rally) repeatedly met with heavy selling and failed to establish new support.
Current price ($0.02342) is below the June/July range midpoints, trading closer to the bottom of the broader 3-month range.

Step 2: Relative Strength Index (RSI)

While RSI values are not provided directly, inferred from price/volume, the oversold spikes after major declines (June’s $0.0195 low, July’s $0.023 dip) followed by tepid bounces suggest repeated brushes with oversold territory. The inability to rally substantially off oversold conditions hints at trend exhaustion on bounces rather than genuine reversal.

Step 3: Moving Averages (SMA/EMA)

The price is trending persistently below key daily averages (20/50/200 SMA/EMA not provided but inferred):

Sustained closes under likely 21-day EMA ($0.0245-$0.025), acting as dynamic resistance.
No golden cross events; instead, moving averages are likely sloping downward, substantiating short-term and mid-term bearish bias.

Step 4: Volume Profile & Volatility Analysis

Down days are associated with higher volumes (June-July spikes, August breakdown), confirming strong supply.
Recovery attempts on decreasing volume point to waning bull conviction.
Bollinger Bands (assumed on hourly/daily) would likely be narrow as volatility compresses post-capitulation, suggesting a potential expansion move incoming.

Step 5: Support/Resistance Mapping

Immediate overhead resistance: $0.0238, $0.0247, and $0.0260 (zones of failed rallies in the last 48 hours and late July).
Nearest supports: $0.0227, then psychological $0.0215 (June low), and finally, $0.0196 (yearly low June 21st).
The $0.0234 zone is a weak pivot, with hourly candles struggling to sustain above it.

Step 6: Fibonacci Retracement Overlay

The $0.0322 (May high) to $0.0196 (June low) range puts 23.6% Fib retrace near $0.0224, 38.2% at $0.0243, and 50% at $0.0259. VET is struggling below or at the 23.6% retracement — a sign of persistent weakness.

Step 7: Candlestick, Order Flow and Market Structure

Multiple rejection wicks at $0.0237-$0.0242 on intraday candles (August 6th), confirming supply zones.
No demand tail or absorption seen below current price; instead, flat closes.
Market structure breakdown: Lower-lows and lower-highs dominate, with no reversal pattern (e.g., double bottom, inverse head-and-shoulders).

Step 8: Oscillator & Momentum Analysis (MACD/Stochastics)

MACD crossover signals (not numerically available but inferred) would likely be negative or neutral, as no bullish divergence on price vs. recent momentum.
Stochastic likely hovering in mid-to-low band, with any upturn met by supply near $0.024.

Step 9: Sentiment & Probability-Weighted View

Broader market sentiment (not shown, but contextually assumed) remains risk-off.
Odds favor a retest of lower supports rather than a successful bullish breakout.

Combined Synthesis & 24-Hour Price Prediction

Given the mid-term downtrend, repeated inability to recapture resistance, weak volume on rallies, and prevailing bearish structure, probability favors a move down to test lower supports at $0.0227 and possibly $0.0215 over the next 24 hours. Micro-bounces remain selling opportunities, especially below $0.0242. There is no compelling accumulation signal.

Final Conclusion

Recommendation: Sell (Short Position)

Entry optimal near current price ($0.02342), as price action is stalling at micro-resistance and lacks momentum.
Initial target: $0.0227 (short-term daily support), with an extended target at $0.0216 for aggressive traders if bear momentum accelerates.

Risk: A move above $0.0242- $0.0247 would weaken the bearish thesis and warrant re-evaluation.