VET poised for a breakout: inverse H&S active, momentum turning up, buy the dip toward 0.0261 for a push into 0.0276–0.0280

VeChain (VET) multi-timeframe technical review and 24h roadmap

Data scope and context

• Daily OHLCV: 2025-05-16 → 2025-08-11, plus latest intraday (hourly) through 2025-08-13 20:59 UTC. Current price: 0.0262737.
• Key swing points:
  • Major swing low: 2025-06-22 low ~0.018318 (capitulation trough).
  • Major swing high: 2025-07-21 high ~0.029518 (local cycle top).
  • Pullback low: 2025-08-01 low ~0.02227 (washout).
  • Recent recovery: 2025-08-11 close 0.02471; today intraday high ~0.026468.

1. Price structure and market regime

• Higher time frame (daily) structure: The decline from 0.0295 (Jul 21) to 0.0223 (Aug 1) retraced roughly 61.8% of the Jun→Jul impulse, then formed a higher-low cluster (Aug 3–6) and reclaimed the 0.024–0.025 area. Since Aug 7, price has printed higher lows and is now challenging late-July supply between 0.0263–0.0276.
• Intermediate structure: A constructive sequence of HL/HH since Aug 1 indicates a trend reversal from corrective to impulsive up. The Aug 1 low resembles the “head” in an inverse H&S with a neckline circa 0.0245–0.0248, which broke on Aug 10–11. Measured move ~0.0022–0.0024 targets 0.0267–0.0272 (first objective) with extension into 0.0278–0.0282 if momentum persists.
• Intraday (hourly): From 2025-08-12 21:00 to current, VET carved a rising channel with successive higher highs (0.02594 → 0.02630 → 0.02646) and higher lows (0.02538 → 0.02547 → 0.02610). The microstructure shows steady dip buying and shallow pullbacks, typical of an early uptrend leg.

2. Trend diagnostics (moving averages and slopes)

• 20-day SMA (est.): ~0.0247–0.0249. Price trading above suggests short-term bullish bias.
• 50-day SMA (est.): ~0.0240–0.0245. Price above the 50-day indicates medium-term strength returning.
• 10-day EMA (est.): Climbing and near 0.0256–0.0259, acting as dynamic support during intraday dips.
• Slope check: 10EMA > 20SMA with both turning up; 20SMA curling above a flattening 50SMA indicates a possible bullish phase transition after a corrective base.
• Hourly 20/50 EMAs (qualitative): Price has respected 20–50h EMAs on pullbacks throughout today’s session, confirming trend alignment on the lower timeframe.

3. Momentum and oscillator suite

• Daily RSI-14 (est.): Mid-to-high 50s, transitioning from bear to bull range; no overbought signal yet. Bullish range shift typically supports further upside probes.
• Hourly RSI-14: Mostly 55–65 today, consistent with a persistent but controlled uptrend; minor bearish divergences not evident at last high (0.02646), suggesting room to test higher.
• Daily MACD: Bullish crossover occurred in early August; histogram positive and expanding, indicating improving upside momentum. Likely approaching the zero line from below—often a spot for acceleration if price clears nearby resistance.
• Stoch RSI (qualitative): Cycling bullishly; brief resets on shallow dips have been bought, indicating demand on mean-reversions.

4. Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR (est.): Contracted from June’s high-volatility regime; recent ATR around 0.0010–0.0013. Compression post-base often precedes directional expansion.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Basis ~0.0248; price oscillating in upper half, frequently tagging upper band on intraday pushes (bullish control). Bandwidth modest—scope for an upside band-walk if resistance gives way.
• Keltner/Bollinger squeeze (qualitative): Bands relatively tight vs July—setup favors a breakout attempt; current drift favors the upside path.

5. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price > Tenkan and > Kijun after neckline break; Tenkan rising and above Kijun (bullish short-term alignment).
• Span A turning up; price is at/above the cloud top or approaching a thin portion of the Kumo (depending on exact cloud calc). Thin cloud forward suggests lower resistance overhead—supportive of continuation if 0.0265–0.0267 breaks.
• Chikou span nearing clearance of prior price—confirmation building but not fully consummated until a decisive push above 0.0267–0.0270.

6. Fibonacci mapping and confluence

• Major swing (Jun 22 low 0.01832 → Jul 21 high 0.02952):
  • 38.2%: ~0.02525 (reclaimed).
  • 50%: ~0.02392 (held on closes after Aug 1).
  • 61.8%: ~0.02260 (Aug 1 low ~0.02227 slightly beyond then reclaimed). Reclaim of 38.2% is a textbook sign of trend resumption.
• Current upswing (Aug 1 low ~0.02227 → Aug 13 intraday high ~0.02646):
  • 0.236–0.382 pullback buy zones: 0.0256–0.0250; price repeatedly bounced near 0.02535–0.02550 intraday, confirming demand.
  • Extension targets from the neckline break cluster at 0.0269, 0.0276, 0.0282 (1.0–1.618 of the inverse H&S height and short-term swing projections). These align with late-July supply nodes—a strong confluence band.

7. Horizontal S/R and liquidity pockets

• Immediate resistance: 0.02645–0.02670 (hourly highs and July 27 area), then 0.02760–0.02820 (late-July supply, pre-breakdown shelf), then 0.02845–0.02860 (Jul 22/21 wicks), and major at 0.02910–0.02952.
• Supports: 0.02605–0.02615 (intraday VWAP/EMA zone), 0.02530–0.02550 (today’s low and 0.382 swing area), 0.02470 (Aug 11 close and neckline retest), 0.02410–0.02430 (dense prior closes).
• Notable liquidity:
  • Bid liquidity pocket: 0.0253–0.0255 (multiple intraday reactions).
  • Offer liquidity pocket: 0.02645–0.0267 (supply from failed rallies). Clearing it likely triggers momentum orders and stops.

8. Volume, participation, and OBV read

• Volume spikes: Jul 18 (130M) on upside breakout attempt; Jul 23 (85M) on distribution; Aug 1 (80M) capitulation into low; Aug 11 (76M) accumulation on rebound. Pattern indicates net absorption on dips and institution-like interest reappearing near 0.024–0.025.
• Intraday today: Reasonable, steady participation on pushes; limited supply response at new marginal highs—bullish.
• OBV (qualitative): Curling up since Aug start, no marked divergences versus price—supports trend continuation.

9. Pattern recognition

• Inverse head & shoulders (daily): Left shoulder (late Jul ~0.0231), head (Aug 1 ~0.0223), right shoulder (Aug 5 ~0.0229), neckline ~0.0245–0.0248. Breakout is in progress; measured move projects 0.0267–0.0272; extensions to ~0.0280.
• Rising channel (hourly): Well-behaved pullbacks to 20–50h EMA; a channel break to the upside near 0.0265–0.0267 would likely accelerate to 0.0272–0.0276.
• No active topping pattern on intraday; pullbacks have been corrective and shallow.

10. Mean reversion vs trend-following lens

• Mean reversion: Price near upper Bollinger on hourly can cause brief resets toward 0.0261–0.0262 or deeper to 0.0256–0.0258. These dips have been bought quickly.
• Trend-following: With MAs aligned up and momentum improving, a breakout continuation setup has edge if 0.02648 is cleared on volume.

11. Elliott wave micro count (heuristic)

• From Aug 1 low, a 1–2–3 sequence may be unfolding: wave 1 into ~0.0248, wave 2 pullback to ~0.0241–0.0243, wave 3 in progress targeting 0.0272–0.0282. The current intraday structure resembles a wave-3 sub-structure; minor wave-4 dips likely limited to 0.0260–0.0261 if the count holds.

12. 24-hour probabilistic path

• Base case (60%): Gradual grind higher with intraday dip to the 0.0260–0.0262 buy zone, then push to test 0.0267; successful breach targets 0.0272–0.0276 before stalling.
• Bull case (25%): Swift breakout through 0.0267 on rising volume; momentum extension tags 0.0278–0.0282 (upper extension cluster) within 24h if broader market is supportive.
• Bear case (15%): Fail at 0.0265–0.0267; pullback probes 0.0255; deeper flush into 0.0252–0.0253 possible if liquidity vacuums. Structure remains intact above 0.0247.

13. Risk management, invalidation, and execution plan

• Invalidation for the bullish swing: Sustained break below 0.0253 (today’s lower bound and 0.382 zone) would weaken momentum and likely force a revisit to 0.0247. Below 0.0247, the inverse H&S breakout would be at risk (trend reassessment required).
• Execution preference: Buy-the-dip limit in the 0.02605–0.02615 zone to align with intraday EMA/VWAP support. Alternative momentum entry is a stop-buy above 0.02650–0.02655 on volume confirmation; however, dip entry offers better R:R.
• Take-profit map:
  • First scale: 0.02695–0.02720 (measured move).
  • Second: 0.02755–0.02765 (supply shelf).
  • Stretch: 0.02800–0.02820 (extension + resistance cluster).
• Suggested stop (for planning, not part of the requested output): ~0.02529 (below intraday swing low 0.025345 and beneath 0.382 retracement), yielding R:R ~2:1 to 0.0276 target from a 0.02610 entry.

Bottom line

• Multiple-method alignment: Price above rising MAs, bullish RSI/MACD posture, inverse H&S breakout under way, reclaimed 0.382 of the major downswing, constructive intraday channel, and supportive volume profile. The path of least resistance over the next 24 hours is modestly higher with potential for a momentum pop if 0.0267 breaks. Dips toward 0.0261 are favored buy opportunities.

Next 24h expectation

• Range projection: 0.0253–0.0276 (base case), with optional extension to 0.0282 (bull case). Bias: Up.

Decision

• Buy (Long position). Entry via a limit on a minor pullback improves R:R; target the 0.0276 supply band within 24 hours, with optional hold for 0.0280 if momentum accelerates.