VeChain Price Analysis Powered by AI

VET poised for a 24h pop: buy the retest, aim just below 2.5¢

VET (VeChain) multi-timeframe technical breakdown and 24h trading plan

Summary view

Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish continuation after intraday breakout; expect a push toward the 0.0246–0.0251 resistance cluster if pullbacks hold above 0.0236–0.0238.
Plan: Buy pullback toward the breakout retest; target first overhead supply below 0.025.

Larger swing: From late-May (~0.0306) VET trended down to a major low on Jun 22 (~0.01832), then rallied into Jul 18 high (~0.02910) before a sharp retrace to Aug 1 low (~0.02269). Since then, VET has been rangebound with lower highs and higher lows developing a broad triangle.
Recent path: Bounce into Aug 13 close 0.02655 (near the 61.8% retrace of the Jul18→Aug1 drop) was rejected on heavy volume (Aug 14). Price then bled back to Aug 19 close 0.02294 and today rebounded to 0.02398.
Daily structure: Potential double-bottom behavior forming vs. Aug 1 low (0.02269) with a higher low on Aug 19 (0.02294). That’s constructive and often precedes a pop toward the midpoint of the range.

Immediate supports: 0.02380–0.02370 (intraday breakout-retest zone), 0.02340 (hourly demand), 0.02294 (Aug 19 close), 0.02269 (Aug 1 low).
Overhead resistances: 0.02455–0.02470 (recent supply band), 0.02514 (38.2% retrace of 0.02910→0.02269), 0.02526 (Jul 29 reference), 0.02555–0.02567 (minor daily supply), 0.02655–0.02665 (Aug 13 high / 61.8% retrace).

20-day SMA ≈ 0.02418 (computed from Aug 1–20 closes). Price at 0.02398 sits just below the SMA20; reclaim attempts are underway. A sustained close back above 0.0242 would strengthen the bull case.
50-day SMA (approx) sits higher in the 0.0245–0.0250 region; this aligns with near-term resistance and should cap price on first test.
Takeaway: Near-term mean reversion toward SMA20/50 is plausible; initial resistance likely at the SMA50 band.

RSI(14) ≈ 47–49 (estimated from last 13–14 closes): recovering from neutral-bearish toward neutral. Not overbought; room to run.
MACD: Histogram turning up after a sequence of lower closes; fast line still likely below signal but converging. This typically precedes a short burst higher if price holds above higher lows.
Stoch RSI: Likely crossing up from lower-mid range after Aug 19 trough; bullish on short horizon.
CCI: Recovering toward the -20/0 area from sub -100 earlier; supportive of a bounce.
Takeaway: Momentum basing and curling up. No overbought constraints yet.

Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 0.02418, rough lower ≈ 0.0220–0.0222, upper ≈ 0.0262–0.0264. Price rebounded from near the lower band on Aug 19 and is gravitating toward the mid-band; typical mean reversion supports a test of 0.0242–0.0246.
ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.0012–0.0015. A 1x ATR move from current places upside potential into 0.0251–0.0255 with supportive momentum, and downside risk back to ~0.0226–0.0228 if the bounce fails.
Keltner Channels: Price now back inside the channel; a close above the midline would favor a push to the upper KC near 0.0248–0.0250.

Jul 18 high 0.02910 → Aug 1 low 0.02269 retraces:
- 23.6%: ~0.02421 (near SMA20)
- 38.2%: ~0.02514 (first major fib resistance)
- 50%: ~0.02590
- 61.8%: ~0.02665 (where Aug 13 rally stalled)
Current 0.02398 ≈ 20% into the retrace off the Aug 1 low; clearance of 0.0242 opens 0.0251.

July 18 top featured very high volume (distribution). Aug 14’s sell-off also showed heavy volume. Since then, declines saw diminishing volume, and today’s rebound came with improving intraday prints — constructive for a relief pop.
OBV (qualitative): Stabilizing after the Aug 14 hit; hourly OBV trending slightly higher today.
MFI (qualitative): Mid-zone, rising — consistent with accumulation on dips.

Price below the cloud; trend still not fully bullish. However, Tenkan is curling up; a Tenkan/Kijun cross and a move toward a thin cloud edge near ~0.0248–0.0250 would match our upside target. The Kijun-like equilibrium likely sits near 0.0248–0.0249 — aligning with our planned take-profit.

Higher lows established from ~0.02301 → ~0.02346 → ~0.02359 → 0.02375 and a near-term cap at ~0.02399–0.02400; an ascending triangle breakout occurred into the 0.02399–0.02400 zone.
Measured move of the intraday structure (~0.0006) projects toward ~0.0246 on breakout follow-through; extensions could probe ~0.0249–0.0251 (where larger time-frame resistance clusters).
Intraday VWAP (qualitative) reclaimed and held during the NY/EU overlap, confirming buyer control intraday.

P ≈ 0.02333; R1 ≈ 0.02372; R2 ≈ 0.02451; R3 ≈ 0.02490.
Price is above R1 and is working on R2; R3 at ~0.0249 coincides with our tactical target and the Ichimoku/Kijun and prior supply zone.

Daily: Potential falling wedge from Aug 13 to Aug 19 with a breakout today; typical target is the start of the last swing down (0.0247–0.0251 area).
Double-bottom variant: Aug 1 (0.02269) and Aug 19 (0.02294) create a higher low; neckline sits ~0.0245–0.0247. A firm break/close above that would confirm more upside, but the first test often rejects; hence a conservative TP just below 0.025 is prudent.

ADX(14) daily likely sub-20: a low-trend, mean-reverting regime where fades-to-mid-band and short bursts to nearby resistance are common. Strategy: buy dips into support, take profits at first resistance.

The Aug 13→Aug 19 decline can be seen as an A–B–C corrective leg; today’s bounce initiates a wave-1 type push. A rejection near 0.0249–0.0251 would then set up a wave-2 pullback, so taking profits ahead of that cluster is aligned with the wave count risk.

Bullish continuation (≈60%): Hold 0.0236–0.0238, push to 0.0246 first, with wicks into 0.0248–0.0250. Close near 0.0245–0.0248.
Range chop (≈25%): 0.0235–0.0245 consolidation under R2 as momentum resets intraday.
Bearish fade (≈15%): Lose 0.0236; slide into 0.0232–0.0230, with risk to 0.0229. Would negate the immediate long setup.

Entry: Prefer limit buy on a pullback to the breakout retest 0.0238±0.0001.
Stop (for risk reference): 0.02335 (below hourly demand and below the 0.0234 shelf). This keeps us out if the breakout fails decisively.
Target: 0.02490 (just shy of R3/major supply/Fib confluence), capturing the likely first test before heavier sellers.
Reward:risk: From 0.02382 entry, TP 0.02490 = +0.00108; stop 0.02335 = -0.00047; R:R ≈ 2.3:1.

Bottom line

The confluence of an hourly breakout, improving momentum off a higher daily low, mean-reversion pull toward SMA20/50, and Fib/pivot alignment favors a tactical long on dips with a 24h target below 0.025. Watch 0.0236–0.0238 as the bull-bear battleground; holding that zone keeps the path open to 0.0246–0.0249. A decisive loss of 0.0234 invalidates the setup in the near term.

Prediction for the next 24 hours