VET breaks out above key 61.8% retracement: buy the dip near 0.0250 for a run toward 0.0263

Overview and context

• Instrument: VeChain (VET)
• Current price: 0.025312742
• Time context: Strong intraday rally on Aug 22 following multi-week August range. Price reclaimed key moving averages and broke above important retracement levels on expanding volume.

Multi-timeframe structure

1. Daily trend and market structure

• May → late June: downtrend into a 0.0183–0.0227 capitulation zone (Jun 22 low 0.01832).
• Late June → late July: strong uptrend, peak 0.02952 (Jul 21).
• Early Aug pullback base: 0.02221–0.02306 closes (Aug 1–3) and another swing low 0.02294 (Aug 19). This sets a double-bottom base around ~0.0228–0.0231.
• Today’s action pushes price back into the 0.025–0.0265 high-volume node from mid-August, a constructive sign of re-accumulation above prior neckline resistance.

2. Intraday (hourly) structure on Aug 22

• Series of higher highs/higher lows began after 12:00–14:00 UTC breakout from 0.0233–0.0237 resistance to 0.0243–0.0246, then continuation to 0.02531.
• Volume expanded on the breakout hour (14:00 UTC ~13.7M), then sustained above average into the close, suggesting genuine participation.

Key support and resistance

• Immediate supports: 0.02500–0.02510 (intraday breakout shelf/round number), 0.02460–0.02475 (hourly consolidation and daily 50% retrace of Aug 19–13 leg), 0.02433–0.02435 (breakout origin on the day), 0.02385 (Aug 20 close) and 0.02294 (Aug 19 low, double-bottom base).
• Immediate resistances: 0.02556–0.02567 (Aug 9–12 supply), 0.02578 (78.6% fib of 0.02294→0.02655), 0.02620–0.02630 (measured move and ATR projection), 0.02655 (Aug 13 high), 0.02695–0.02707 (Aug 14/Jul 18 supply).

Moving averages (daily)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 0.02422 (computed from last 20 closes). Price now above the 20-SMA → short-term bullish bias.
• 9/21 EMA (qualitative): With the recent climb from 0.02294 to 0.02531, price is above both the 9-EMA and ~21-EMA. This improves momentum posture and typically precedes continuation attempts.
• 50-day SMA (qualitative est. ~0.0245–0.0249): Current price is marginally above, further supporting a near-term long bias. The slope has flattened and is starting to curl up after August basing.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, est. 14): Likely moved from neutral (~48–50) to modestly bullish (~55–58) with today’s thrust. Room before classic overbought (>70) — supports continuation potential.
• Stochastic (daily): Crossing up through midline; intraday stochastic is near overbought but can remain pinned during trend days.
• MACD (daily): The histogram has likely turned positive with a bullish signal-line crossover forming between Aug 21–22; rising histogram supports a new upswing from the August base.

Volatility and bands

• ATR (14D) est. ≈ 0.0012–0.0014 (about 4.5%–5.5% of price). A 24h expected move encompasses ~0.0240–0.0266 around current price.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~0.02422; upper band ~0.0252–0.0255 (estimate). Price is pressing/peeking above the upper band, signaling a volatility expansion from a prior squeeze. Early band-walks often sustain for 1–2 sessions, but a shallow retest of the breakout zone is common.

Volume, flow, and profile

• OBV (qualitative): Rising since Aug 19 low, aligning with price — confirms accumulation rather than a low-liquidity spike.
• Volume profile (July–Aug window): Thick node 0.025–0.0265 from prior trading suggests two-way flow and potential chop inside, but once accepted above ~0.0257, thin air to ~0.0265 can accelerate moves.
• Today’s breakout occurred on materially higher hour-by-hour volume — classic confirmation.

Fibonacci frameworks

1. Aug 13 high (0.026553) → Aug 19 low (0.022938)

• 38.2%: 0.024319 (reclaimed).
• 50%: 0.024746 (reclaimed and held in intraday pullbacks).
• 61.8%: 0.025171 (clean break today). Above 61.8% retrace tilts odds toward a full retest of 0.02655 after consolidation.
• 78.6%: ~0.025779 (first significant upside target cluster with historical supply at 0.02567–0.02578).

2. Larger leg: Jul 21 high (0.02952) → Aug 2 low (0.022214)

• 38.2%: ~0.02501 (price accepted above; now new support).
• 50%: ~0.02587 (next medium-term magnet if momentum persists).
• 61.8%: ~0.02686 (aligns with upper resistance band near 0.0265–0.0269).

Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price pushing above Tenkan and approaching/above Kijun (~0.0246–0.0248 zone). A daily close above both with a bullish Tenkan>Kijun cross would add confirmation. Cloud overhead likely thin up to ~0.026–0.0266; a bullish Kumo twist later would favor follow-through.

Trend strength (ADX)

• Daily ADX has been subdued but turning up from low 20s; hourly ADX expanding with the breakout — consistent with initiation of a new minor trend leg.

Pattern analysis

• Double bottom: Aug 2 (0.02221) and Aug 19 (0.02294) create a higher low structure; neckline around 0.0243–0.0247. Today’s breakout above the neckline projects a measured move of roughly 0.0013–0.0018, targeting ~0.0257–0.0265.
• Intraday ascending structure: Higher lows and a breakout base at ~0.0250, supportive of buy-the-dip setups toward that shelf.

VWAP and intraday execution

• Today’s developing session VWAP sits just below current price after the afternoon impulse; a pullback toward ~0.0250–0.0251 would tag the breakout shelf and likely approximate or slightly undercut VWAP, presenting a favorable R:R long entry.

24-hour scenario analysis

• Base case (≈60%): Shallow pullback toward 0.02505–0.02510, hold above 0.02495, then push into 0.02565–0.02620. Close in the 0.0260–0.0263 region.
• Bull case (≈25%): Minimal dip; continuation straight through 0.02578 to 0.02645–0.02655. Rejection likely near prior Aug 13 high.
• Bear case (≈15%): Failed breakout; loss of 0.02495 leads to a deeper retest of 0.02460–0.02435. Invalidation below 0.02385 would negate the immediate bullish structure.

Confluence summary (why long bias)

• Price acceptance above the 20-SMA and 61.8% fib of the Aug swing, with volume confirmation.
• Clear intraday HH/HL sequence and a well-defined breakout shelf near 0.0250.
• MACD turn, RSI mid-50s, and Bollinger expansion from a prior squeeze — typical early trend conditions.
• Double-bottom breakout with measured move aligning to 0.0257–0.0265 target zone.

Trade plan and optimization

• Preferred strategy: Buy the dip into the breakout shelf to improve R:R and reduce slippage.
• Optimal entry: 0.02505 (near the 38.2% large fib at ~0.02501, intraday shelf, and just below the psychological 0.025 round). This aligns with a VWAP/MA pullback zone often retested after first thrusts.
• Profit target (next 24h): 0.02630 (below the 0.02645–0.02655 resistance band and within ATR projection; increases fill probability on a wick through 0.0262–0.0264).
• Suggested (not required) risk guardrail: Invalidation on a decisive hourly close below 0.02460 (prior consolidation and Kijun zone), or tighter tactical stop ~0.02448 for a >2:1 R:R.

Bottom line

• Next 24h bias: Moderately bullish with expectation of a shallow pullback then continuation toward 0.0262–0.0263. Positioning into a controlled dip around 0.02505 offers favorable odds and risk/reward.