VET poised for continuation: holding VWAP after a breakout, eyeing 0.0277 in 24 hours

Summary view: Short-term momentum has turned bullish on VET with higher highs/higher lows, price reclaiming and holding above the 20D mean, a healthy intraday 50% pullback after a breakout, and strong volume on the push. Expect consolidation early, then a continuation attempt toward 0.0271–0.0277 in the next 24 hours provided 0.0260–0.0261 holds.

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily structure: From the Aug 1 swing low (~0.02269) VET built a rounded base (Aug 1–20) and is now in a sequence of higher lows (0.02294 → 0.02364 → 0.02532) and higher highs (0.02547 → 0.02635 → 0.02691 intraday). This is a textbook short-term uptrend.
• Intraday (hourly) on Aug 24: Strong expansion candle 18:00 UTC to 0.02672 high, extension to 0.02691 at 19:00, then a controlled retrace to ~0.02608 (exactly a 50% Fibonacci pullback of the 0.02524 → 0.02691 leg) and hold above VWAP. Buyers retained control.

2. Key levels (derived from recent price action)

• Support: 0.02608–0.02617 (VWAP/50% pullback zone), 0.02570 (hourly HL), 0.02531–0.02551 (Aug 22–23 closes, high-volume node), 0.02502 (classic S1 from pivots), deeper 0.02465.
• Resistance: 0.02655–0.02665 (61.8% retrace of Jul 18 high to Aug 1 low), 0.02690–0.02710 (intraday high + R1), 0.02770–0.02783 (78.6% zone and July congestion), 0.02840–0.02845, then 0.02910.

3. Moving averages and mean reversion

• 20D SMA (approx): ~0.02462. Current 0.02617 trades ~6.3% above, indicating momentum but not excessive extension. Price spent the last three sessions above the 20D, which often precedes attempts at the upper Bollinger band.
• 9D vs 21D bias: The 9D average has turned up and sits above the ~21D/20D zone (inferred from the last 9 closes rising). Short-term bullish slope.
• 50D context: The last ~50 sessions average near mid-0.024s given June lows and July rally; trading above that suggests positive intermediate bias.

4. Momentum

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): ~57.3. This is a constructive, not overbought reading, consistent with trend continuation potential.
• Intraday momentum cooled from an overbought spike after the 18:00–19:00 surge; the subsequent 50% retrace relieved pressure while keeping structure intact.

5. Volatility and risk ranges

• ATR(14) (approx): ~0.0015. One ATR up from 0.0261 = ~0.0276; aligns with the R1/78.6% retrace cluster as a feasible 24h target.

6. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Mid-band ~0.02462; rough upper band estimate ~0.0272 given recent dispersion. Price is in the upper half of the bands with room toward the upper band/just above if momentum expands.

7. Volume analytics: participation and control

• Daily: Rising participation on up-days since Aug 22. OBV trajectory is positive (net closes on expanding volume), supportive of the uptrend.
• Intraday VWAP (Aug 24, using available hourly volumes): ≈0.02611. Current price 0.02617 is above VWAP; buyers hold the volume-weighted battlefield.
• Volume expansion: Big prints during the 18:00–19:00 breakout (≈12M and ≈19M units) followed by a higher-volume pullback and hold, typical for constructive break-and-base behavior.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing Jul 18 high 0.02910 → Aug 1 low 0.02269: • 38.2% = ~0.02514 (reclaimed and held) • 50% = ~0.02590 (reclaimed) • 61.8% = ~0.02665 (tested; today’s high 0.02691 briefly pierced above, then closed below) • 78.6% = ~0.02773 (next magnet if 0.02665 holds on a closing basis)
• Intraday leg 0.02524 → 0.02691: Price pulled back to ~0.02608 (50% level), found support, and stabilized above VWAP — a textbook continuation setup if 0.0260–0.0261 holds.

9. Pivot points (Classic) using today’s session (O=0.02552, H=0.02691, L=0.02482, C=0.02617)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.02596
• R1 ≈ 0.02711, R2 ≈ 0.02805, R3 ≈ 0.02920
• S1 ≈ 0.02502, S2 ≈ 0.02387, S3 ≈ 0.02293 Current just above P, below R1, implying room to push into R1 with momentum.

10. Pattern and candle reads

• Daily: Three-day bullish sequence (Aug 22–24) with today shaping as a small upper-wick day after a strong run; this typically precedes a short consolidation or a shallow flag rather than immediate reversal when breadth/volume are supportive.
• Structure: Ascending channel/flag on intraday TFs since Aug 19; the break-and-hold above 0.0257 confirms buyers’ control.

11. Confluence snapshot

• Bullish: Higher highs/higher lows, close above 20D, RSI ~57, price > VWAP, reclaim of 50% and probing 61.8% of major downswing, strong volume on up move, support cluster 0.0261/0.0257/0.0253.
• Headwinds: 0.02665–0.02710 is a confluence ceiling (61.8% + R1 + recent high). Expect chop on the first test.

12. Next 24h path expectation

• Base case (60%): Early Asian/EU session holds 0.0260–0.0262 (VWAP zone), then a grind toward 0.02665; a decisive push targets 0.02710 (R1), with extension toward 0.0276–0.0277 (78.6% retrace). Range expectation ~0.0259–0.0277.
• Alt case (30%): Deeper pullback to 0.0257 high-volume node; still constructive if reclaimed quickly. Failure there risks a test of 0.0253/P->S1 pivot band.
• Bear tail (10%): Break and acceptance below 0.0250 (S1) would invalidate the immediate long momentum and re-open the 0.0246 test.

13. Trade plan logic (for a tactical 24h swing)

• Direction: Long — momentum and structure favor an upside attempt with well-defined invalidation below 0.0260/0.0257.
• Optimal entry: Near VWAP/50% pullback region to skew R:R favorably; current prints around 0.02616 are acceptable. A patient limit at ~0.02610 seeks a marginally better fill.
• Target: 0.02770 aligns with 1x ATR up from entry and the 78.6% retracement cluster, an area of likely supply where partial/total profit-taking is prudent.
• Invalidation (contextual, not an order here): A decisive hourly close below ~0.02570, or a daily push under 0.0250, would negate the setup’s edge.

Bottom line: Expect consolidation above 0.0260 followed by an attempt to break 0.02665–0.02710. The risk-reward favors a tactical long aiming for 0.0277 within 24 hours if supports hold.