VeChain Price Analysis Powered by AI

VET Post-Capitulation Rebound: Tactical Long Toward the 0.0092 Supply Shelf

Market snapshot (VET)

Current price: 0.0086394
Last daily candles: strong selloff into 2026-01-31 low ~0.007886, then stabilization + rebound to 0.008639 today.
Today’s daily range (so far): Low 0.0079098 / High 0.0087512 (wide, volatility elevated).

1) Multi-timeframe trend & structure

Daily structure (dominant trend)

From early Nov (~0.015–0.017) to late Jan (~0.008–0.010): clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows.
The sequence from 2026-01-29 (close ~0.009351) → 2026-02-01 (close ~0.008169) shows capitulation-like pressure.
2026-02-02 recovers to 0.008639: this is a counter-trend bounce inside a broader bearish regime.

Key daily levels (from recent pivots):

Support: 0.00788–0.00791 (recent capitulation low + today’s low)
Intermediate support: ~0.00817 (yesterday close)
Resistance 1: 0.00875 (today’s high)
Resistance 2: 0.00922–0.00935 (Jan 30 close ~0.00922, Jan 29 close ~0.00935)
Resistance 3: ~0.01020–0.01030 (late Jan congestion)

Interpretation: price is rebounding, but it is still below multiple prior breakdown areas, so rallies are likely to meet supply.

Intraday structure (hourly)

The hourly tape shows an impulse up from ~0.00805–0.00820 into 0.00862–0.00875, followed by shallow pullbacks and then a push back to 0.00864.
The last hours show higher lows (0.00854 → 0.00856 → 0.00864 close), indicating short-term bid remains.

2) Momentum & oscillator read (price-action derived)

RSI-style takeaway (without exact RSI computation)

The daily move from a sharp drop (Jan 31) into a base (Feb 1) then rebound (Feb 2) typically corresponds to RSI recovering from oversold.
Oversold relief bounces often extend 1–3 sessions, but within a downtrend they frequently stall near first resistance (here: 0.00875, then 0.00922–0.00935).

MACD-style takeaway

After a prolonged downswing, the first rebound usually tightens negative momentum (MACD histogram rising toward zero). That favors a near-term upside continuation, but not necessarily a trend reversal unless price reclaims broken levels (0.0092–0.0103).

3) Volatility, range, and “mean reversion vs continuation”

Today’s daily high/low span is about 10.6% (0.008751/0.007910 - 1), which is high volatility.
High-volatility rebounds after capitulation often do one of two things in the next 24h:
1. Continuation test of the session high (0.00875) and possibly a wick into the next resistance band.
2. Fade/mean reversion back toward the midpoint of the impulse (often near ~0.00845–0.00855) before deciding.

Given the latest hourly closes regained 0.00864 after dipping to 0.00854–0.00856, the micro-structure slightly favors scenario (1) first.

4) Volume & participation

Daily volumes were highest on the sharp down day (Jan 31 ~42.8M) and still strong today (~36.2M). This pattern often signals:
- Capitulation / forced selling followed by
- Dip-buying / short covering.
On the hourly data, there was a large burst around 03:00 (notable volume spike) near the lows, consistent with liquidity sweep then reversal behavior.

This supports short-term bullish continuation, but within a larger bearish context.

5) Classical levels & pattern logic

Support sweep / stop run

Price made a notable low ~0.007886–0.007910 and quickly rebounded above 0.00810–0.00820.
This often acts as a bear trap / liquidity grab and can lead to a 24h continuation leg.

Resistance mapping for next 24h

Immediate ceiling: 0.00875 (today’s high)
If broken and accepted (hourly closes above it), next likely magnet: 0.00920–0.00935 (prior daily closes and breakdown shelf)

6) 24-hour forecast (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability): mild continuation up, then stall at resistance

Expect price to probe 0.00875 again.
If 0.00875 breaks with follow-through, likely extension toward 0.00905–0.00920.

Alternative case: pullback before continuation

A dip into 0.00845–0.00855 (prior intraday support) is plausible; holding there keeps the bullish intraday structure intact.

Bear case (invalidating near-term bullishness):

A breakdown below 0.00817 (yesterday close area) increases odds of revisiting 0.00791.

Net: bias is upward for the next 24h (relief bounce continuation), but expected to be capped by the 0.0092–0.00935 supply zone.

Trade plan (tactical)

Because the broader trend is still bearish, the best edge is to treat this as a short-term rebound trade with a tight invalidation.

Preferred approach: Buy on a pullback into support rather than chasing.
Optimal open area: near 0.00855 (intraday support band; reduces risk vs buying at highs)
Take-profit / close: 0.00920 (first major supply zone; realistic 24h target if momentum persists)

If price never pulls back to 0.00855 and instead breaks 0.00875 cleanly, the plan would shift to breakout buying—but with today’s volatility, pullback entries are typically higher expectancy.

Final call

Despite the dominant daily downtrend, the immediate post-capitulation structure favors a 24h rebound continuation.