WIF at the Pivot Knife-Edge: Buying the 50% Fib Dip for a Snapback to 0.975

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical review for WIF (dogwifhat)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher timeframe (Daily, past 3 months):

  • Broad structure shows a major swing high on 2025-07-22 (~1.31 intraday region earlier that week, closes ~1.27), followed by a sustained corrective leg into 07/31–08/02 (lows 0.82–0.92). From 08/01 a constructive series of higher lows emerged: 0.8219 (08/02) → 0.8459 (08/03) → 0.8523 (08/05) → 0.8498 (08/06) → 0.8946 (08/07) → 0.9346 (08/08) → 0.9649 (08/09). The short-term uptrend remains intact as long as price holds above ~0.905–0.919.
  • Daily close today (in-progress) around 0.934 comes after a local daily rally into 08/09 close 1.0092 and 08/11 intraday high 1.0357, indicating a sharp pullback into prior support.

• Intraday (1H, 24–36 hours):

  • 08/11 session: Early strength to 1.0357 was sold aggressively, pushing price to 0.9306, now stabilizing ~0.934. The descent formed a clean intraday descending channel with sequential lower highs and lower lows. Into the New York afternoon, momentum decelerated and minor basing developed 0.931–0.935.
  • Data note: several hourly bars show zero volume prints (likely feed gaps), but the prominent sell-leg shows activity spikes around 11:00–13:00 UTC and 19:00 UTC.

2. Support/resistance map

• Immediate supports:
  • 0.928–0.935: Confluence zone. Matches 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Aug swing and the 08/08 low (0.9346) and today’s intraday low cluster (0.930–0.934).
  • 0.905–0.904: 61.8% retracement confluence and prior demand on 08/06–08/07; key invalidation for the short-term uptrend.
  • 0.919–0.920: 07/31 close pivot; potential liquidity pool if 0.93 fails.
• Overhead resistances:
  • 0.953–0.956: Intraday supply and 38.2% Fib from the current pullback; also 08/07 close region.
  • 0.972–0.975: Classic pivot S1 retest and 08/08 close (0.9748); formidable take-profit magnet.
  • 1.009–1.035: 08/09 close/08/11 high cluster; major resistance if momentum fully recovers.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI (approximation): Recovered from sub-40 on 08/01 to mid-50s by 08/09; the 08/11 sell pulls it closer to neutral (~45–50). No daily bearish divergence on the recent up-leg; momentum cooled but not broken.
• Hourly RSI: Reached oversold during the 0.93 sweep. Price made marginal lower lows (0.934 → 0.930), while momentum likely made a higher low into the late session, hinting at a nascent bullish divergence and mean-reversion setup.
• MACD:
  • Daily: Bullish cross occurred during the Aug ascent; histogram rolled over the past 1–2 sessions but likely hasn’t confirmed a bearish cross yet. Still constructive if support holds.
  • Hourly: Deeply negative on the drop; now flattening. A signal-line cross upwards would confirm a countertrend bounce.

4. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~0.991 (computed across the last 20 closes). Price is currently below this, reflecting an interim pullback within a developing upswing from the Aug lows.
• Short-term (7–10 day mean): ~0.95–0.96. Current price slightly below, consistent with a dip to buy if the uptrend is to continue.
• Slope context: Short-term moving averages turned up this month; today’s drop is a mean-reversion test back to the rising base. Sustained closes back above ~0.955 would realign price with the short-term MAs.

5. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR (est.): ~0.09–0.10. From 0.934, a typical 24h sigma would target 0.934 ± 0.09, i.e., 0.844–1.024. This frames a realistic near-term upside to ~0.97–1.01 on a bounce and a downside probe to ~0.85–0.90 on a failed support.
• Bollinger Bands (20D, est. σ ~0.08–0.10): Mid-band near 0.99; lower band likely ~0.79–0.83. Price is in the lower-mid zone, leaving room for a reversion to the mid-band if buyers reassert.

6. Fibonacci structure (swing 08/02 low to 08/11 high)

• Swing low 0.8219 (08/02) → swing high 1.0358 (08/11); range = 0.2139.
  • 38.2%: ~0.9541 (key intraday resistance now)
  • 50.0%: ~0.9288 (current support being defended)
  • 61.8%: ~0.9036 (deeper pullback support and trend invalidation zone for the short-term leg)
• Interpretation: Price reacted at the 50% retrace with basing around 0.93. If the level holds, the probabilistic path is a bounce toward 38.2% (~0.954) and possibly 0.972–0.975.

7. Ichimoku (directional read)

• Tenkan likely just overhead after the sharp drop; Kijun flat-ish in the 0.97–0.99 region; cloud ahead relatively thin. Dip below Tenkan with Kijun flat often mean-reverts back to Kijun if the larger swing trend holds. A reclaim of Tenkan on the 1H/4H would be an early confirmation of a bounce.

8. Market profile, VWAP, and liquidity

• Visible range (recent sessions) shows high-volume nodes around 0.95–0.98; a value-area acceptance above 0.955 can accelerate the move into 0.972–0.975.
• Session VWAP (08/11) likely resides above current price (mid 0.95s). Price below VWAP after an extended sell often mean-reverts provided sellers fail to expand new lows.
• Liquidity pockets: Sub-0.93, stops likely cluster down to 0.919/0.905. A brief stop-run into 0.919–0.905 followed by strong reclaim would be an alternate high-probability long setup. Conversely, a failure to reclaim 0.935–0.940 after a bounce would signal caution.

9. Classic pivots (using 08/09 H/L/C: 1.0321/0.9649/1.0092)

• Pivot P ≈ 1.0021; R1 ≈ 1.0393; S1 ≈ 0.9721; S2 ≈ 0.9349.
• Current price is sitting on S2. Reversions from S2 commonly aim back to S1 (~0.972), which aligns perfectly with the 0.972–0.975 resistance band and our take-profit zone.

10. Candlestick/price action cues

• Daily: Today’s candle is a wide-range pullback into a major support cluster (S2 pivot + 50% Fib + prior swing low region). If it closes with a lower tail or forms a doji/bullish hammer tomorrow, it would validate the demand zone.
• Hourly: Late-session stabilization with smaller bodies suggests sell pressure is easing. A break and hold above ~0.947–0.953 would confirm a short-term trend change on the 1H.

11. Elliott wave / structural read (lightweight)

• The Aug ascent can be viewed as an impulsive A–B–C or 1–2–3 structure, with today’s drop likely a wave-4/ B-type retracement retracing ~50%. If correct, a wave-5/C push toward 0.97–1.00 is consistent with the next 24h bounce scenario.

12. Scenario analysis & probabilities (24h)

• Base case – Mean reversion bounce (≈60%): Hold 0.928–0.935, reclaim 0.947–0.953, extend to 0.972–0.975 where sellers defend. Potential overshoot to 0.985–1.000 if momentum improves.
• Bearish extension (≈35%): Lose 0.928 decisively; slide to 0.919, run liquidity toward 0.905–0.904 (61.8% Fib) before a stronger response. This would delay the long but improve R:R for later.
• Sideways consolidation (≈5%): Coil between 0.93–0.95 awaiting fresh catalysts.

13. Risk/reward and trade plan

• Proposed action: Buy the dip at/near support with the intent to ride the mean reversion into the 0.972–0.975 supply band.
• Entry (limit): 0.932–0.933 zone to align with support and improve R:R.
• Invalidations (for risk mgmt – not part of the requested TP field): A daily/hourly close below 0.919 increases risk of a push to 0.905; conservative stops 0.918–0.912 protect capital.
• Take profit: 0.972–0.975 (pivot S1 retest + Fib 38.2% + recent supply). We set 0.9748 to coincide with prior daily close and round-number front-running behavior.
• R:R estimate: Risk ~0.013–0.020 (to 0.919–0.912) vs Reward ~0.042 from 0.932 to 0.974 → R:R ≈ 2.1–3.2, attractive.

14. Confirmation triggers to monitor

• Bullish: 1H close back above 0.947 then 0.953; rising 1H OBV; MACD 1H bullish cross; reclaim of session VWAP.
• Cautionary: Failure to hold 0.928; persistent rejection at 0.947–0.953; expanding downside volume into new lows.

15. Bottom line

• Confluences favor a long-biased, mean-reversion trade from 0.93 support: 50% Fibonacci, Classic Pivot S2, prior swing low, short-term higher-low structure, and decelerating intraday momentum. First magnet up is 0.972–0.975. If 0.928 breaks decisively, step aside and reassess near 0.905.

Projected 24h price path: Base case bounce to 0.953 → 0.972–0.975, with tail risk of a brief liquidity sweep to 0.919–0.905 before recovery. Decision: Buy.