WIF coiling for a breakout: ascending triangle points to a 1.07 magnet within 24 hours

Below is a thorough, step-by-step, multi-technique assessment of WIF using the provided daily and hourly data through 2025-08-13 20:56 UTC. I focus on trend, momentum, volatility, market structure, and confluence to forecast the next 24 hours and craft a trade plan.

1. Multi-timeframe context and structure

• Daily context (May–Aug):
  • Trend: After a June low near 0.68–0.70 and a strong July advance to ~1.32 (7/21), price retraced hard into early August (~0.85 on 8/1–2), then based and rebounded. The sequence since 8/1 shows progressively higher lows: 0.855 → 0.872 → 0.898–0.903 → 0.953 → 0.975 → 1.009, supporting an emerging uptrend.
  • Current regime: Reaccumulation after the July peak, transitioning from corrective to constructive. The Aug 11 dip to ~0.912 was bought, and price has reclaimed 1.00 and is pressing into the 1.03–1.05 zone.
• Hourly context (last ~24–36 hours):
  • Price marched from ~0.987 to ~1.04, then consolidated in a tight 1.025–1.045 band. Intraday prints show a series of higher lows (~1.011 → 1.023 → 1.026 → 1.031) and repeated taps near 1.042–1.045, indicative of an ascending triangle below resistance.

2. Key levels (derived from daily and hourly swings)

• Support:
  • 1.000–1.010: Round-number, prior breakout/retest area; daily 50% of short-term ranges often anchors here.
  • 0.983–0.990: Hourly base from 8/12 night and multiple intraday opens.
  • 0.953–0.960: Strong Aug 7–11 shelf and prior momentum ignition zone.
• Resistance:
  • 1.042–1.045: Intraday cap (multiple hourly highs); micro pivot.
  • 1.066–1.075: Prior July congestion; aligns with Fib 50% (details below).
  • 1.09–1.12: Overhead supply from late July; also near daily MA confluence in some lookbacks.

3. Moving averages (approximated with context)

• Daily 20-EMA/21-EMA: Likely coiled around ~1.00–1.03 after early-Aug dip and rebound; price is now at/just above it. Bullish when reclaimed and sloping up.
• Daily 50-SMA: Likely sits near ~0.97–1.00 after July strength and August reset; price above → constructive medium-term bias.
• Hourly 20/50-EMA: Price has been trading above both most of the session, with 20 above 50 and both gently rising—classic short-term uptrend confirmation.
• Impact: MA posture supports dip-buying within 1.02–1.03 and favors a push toward 1.06–1.08 if 1.045 breaks.

4. Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI (14): Estimated mid-50s to low-60s following the rebound, a healthy bullish-but-not-overbought reading that permits further upside without immediate mean-reversion pressure.
• Hourly RSI (14): Oscillating 55–65 over the last day; more recently ~58–60 near the consolidation highs, which is typical for uptrends where RSI sustains above 50 on pullbacks.
• Stochastic (hourly): Cycling within bullish ranges, resetting near midline on dips, then turning up—consistent with an ascending triangle under resistance.
• Impact: Momentum favors continuation rather than immediate reversal; a clean breakout above 1.045 could accelerate to 1.06–1.08.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD: After the early-Aug pullback, daily MACD likely crossed back toward the signal from below with histogram turning positive or near-zero; this often precedes a 2–5 day continuation leg when paired with higher lows.
• Hourly MACD: Positive but flattening during the tight consolidation; historically, such compressions resolve in the prevailing direction (up) if structure remains intact.
• Impact: Both timeframes tilt bullish-to-neutral, not bearish; a fresh expansion of the hourly histogram on a 1.045 break would signal momentum ignition.

6. Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB (20,2): Price moved from the lower band (early Aug) to mid-band and is now nudging above the middle line; upper band likely in the 1.08–1.12 area. Space exists for a follow-through day toward that upper band if resistance gives way.
• Hourly BB: Bands narrowed during the 1.025–1.045 coil, then modestly opened. Price hugged the upper band on thrusts and mean-reverted to the middle band near 1.03—hallmark of a controlled uptrend.
• Impact: Band posture supports a breakout-and-walk-the-band scenario toward 1.07–1.08 if 1.045 flips to support.

7. Ichimoku framework (approximate)

• Hourly: Price above a rising Tenkan (~1.03) and Kijun (~1.02–1.025) with Span A > Span B. Chikou likely above price. This is a bullish intraday state; pullbacks to Kijun have been bought.
• Daily: Tenkan likely regained and Kijun not far below (~0.98–1.00). Price either entering or above a thinning cloud. A bullish TK cross already occurred on lower timeframes.
• Impact: Bullish intraday cloud posture with daily transitioning positive—supports long bias on dips.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• From the July swing high (1.319) to the early Aug swing low (~0.822–0.855 zone), key retrace levels cluster near:
  • 38.2% ≈ ~1.01–1.03
  • 50% ≈ ~1.07
  • 61.8% ≈ ~1.13 Price is sitting at the 38.2% neighborhood. Next magnet if breakout holds is the 50% at ~1.07, then 1.13 if momentum extends beyond 24h.
• From the Aug rebound leg (0.855 → 1.036), pullbacks respected ~0.97–0.95 areas (38.2–50%). The 8/11 flush to ~0.912 was an overshoot that was quickly retraced, suggesting strong dip demand.
• Impact: Fib confluence puts 1.07 as a naturally sticky upside target within 24h after 1.045 breaks.

9. Volume, OBV, and VWAP

• Daily volume: Heaviest on impulse days (7/20–7/23). Recent sessions show moderate, healthy participation during advances; no distribution spike on 8/11 selloff, then buyers stepped back in.
• OBV (qualitative): Trending higher from Aug lows; no divergence versus price on the hourly—constructive.
• Intraday VWAP (8/13): Price oscillates around/above session VWAP near ~1.033–1.035. Maintaining above VWAP during the US afternoon/evening sessions is a bullish sign; dips to VWAP have been bought.
• Impact: Positive volume posture and VWAP support conspire for a continuation bid.

10. Volatility/ATR and expected range

• Daily ATR(14) estimate: ~0.07–0.10 (7–10 cents) given the recent daily bars.
• 24h expected move: From 1.034, a one-ATR push targets ~1.10 topside or ~0.96 downside, but given contracting intraday vol, a nearer-term 1.02–1.08 realized range is favored.
• Impact: A 4–5% upside day is plausible without requiring regime shift.

11. Chart patterns and price action

• Ascending triangle: Multiple tests of 1.042–1.045 with rising lows—bullish base pattern on the hourly. Breaks typically travel the height of the pattern (~1.045 – 1.025 = 0.020), projecting to ~1.065 minimal, which aligns with Fib 50% at ~1.07.
• VCP (volatility contraction pattern): Successive smaller pullbacks from 1.045 to 1.031 then 1.028 with tightening ranges—often precedes breakouts. Pivot ≈ 1.045.
• Candlesticks: No glaring reversal on the hourly; wicks under 1.03 were absorbed. Daily candles since 8/11 show recovery and a steady bid.

12. Mean-reversion checks

• Distance from daily 20-EMA is small; no overextension. Intraday moves above upper hourly BB reverted only modestly, suggesting a controlled trend rather than blow-off.
• Impact: Low risk of immediate sharp reversal unless 1.02 fails decisively.

13. Order flow and liquidity cues (inferred)

• Liquidity pockets likely sit just above 1.045 (stop cluster for shorts and momentum triggers) and below 1.02 (stops for late longs). A quick liquidity sweep under 1.03/1.02 followed by reclaim would be an ideal long trigger; otherwise, a clean breakout retest should hold 1.04.

14. Scenario planning for next 24 hours

• Base case (55–60%): Bullish continuation. Break and hold above 1.045 → push to 1.06–1.08, stalling near 1.07 (Fib 50%/pattern measure). Intraday pullbacks to 1.035–1.040 are bought.
• Alt scenario (25–30%): Range and fake-out. Brief pop above 1.045 to 1.055, then fade back to 1.02–1.03 to reload before another attempt.
• Risk scenario (15%): Loss of 1.02 and VWAP → 1.00–0.99 test. Would reassess if 0.99 breaks with heavy sell volume.

15. Confluence summary

• Bullish factors: Higher lows, ascending triangle under 1.045, reclaim of key MAs, RSI > 50, MACD improving, VWAP support, BB posture allowing run, Fib magnet at 1.07, constructive OBV.
• Bearish/risk factors: Nearby overhead supply pockets at 1.07 and 1.09–1.12; possibility of a fake-out above 1.045 if volume underwhelms.
• Net: Bullish tilt with favorable R:R for a tactical long on a dip or on confirmed breakout.

16. Trade plan (tactical long within 24h horizon)

• Entry preference: Buy-the-dip into 1.026–1.032 (ideally ~1.028) where VWAP/short MAs align and prior intraday lows sit. Alternative: Momentum add on clean break-and-hold above 1.045.
• Stop (risk control, not part of requested fields): 1) Conservative: ~1.011 (below Kijun/structure), or 2) Tighter: ~0.997 (below round-number and recent micro swing). Choose per risk tolerance.
• Take-profit (24h): 1.072–1.080 zone. Primary target 1.075, which aligns with pattern projection and Fib 50%.
• Position management: If breakout is strong, scale partial at 1.066–1.070, run remainder to 1.078–1.085; trail stop to breakeven on acceptance above 1.045.

24-hour price prediction

• Expected path: Attempted breakout of 1.045 during the next active session window. Intraday high potential 1.07–1.08, intraday low likely supported near 1.02–1.03 unless a risk-off sweep to 1.00 occurs (lower probability).

Decision

• Bias: Buy (Long). Structure, momentum, and confluence favor upside follow-through toward 1.07 with well-defined risk below 1.02.