WIF poised for a dead-cat bounce into supply before another leg down

Executive summary

• Bias: Bearish into the next 24 hours with a relief bounce likely to be sold.
• Thesis: The breakdown from the 0.868–0.871 support, persistent lower highs since late July, sub-trend moving averages, and momentum/volume deterioration favor continuation toward 0.81–0.80 after a retest of intraday resistance around 0.845–0.855.
• Plan: Sell into strength near 0.848 (limit), target 0.802. If no bounce, rallies into VWAP/MA clusters remain sell zones.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Higher timeframe (daily, ~3 months): Price topped near 1.31 (Jul 21–22) and has made a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The July upthrust above 1.20–1.25 failed; subsequent distribution led to markdown. Current price 0.834 is ~36% below the late-July peak.
• Intermediate (daily last 4–6 weeks): Range 0.87–1.02 through early Aug broke lower on Aug 14 and again Aug 18–19. The decisive loss of 0.868–0.871 (prior demand shelf from Aug 5, 12, 18 closes) flips that zone to supply.
• Intraday (hourly, last 24h): Stair-step lower with supply cap moving down from 0.868 to 0.862, then 0.855–0.846. Multiple failed bounces; price is closing below hourly VWAP and the 20/50 EMAs on the session, confirming downside control.

2. Key levels (confluence map)

• Immediate resistance: 0.842–0.846 (hourly supply and session VWAP zone), 0.855–0.862 (hourly/previous breakdown shelf), 0.868–0.871 (key daily flip level), 0.889–0.900 (range top supply/volume node), 0.919–0.925 (20D SMA region, prior swing congestion).
• Support: 0.832–0.835 (current intraday floor), 0.821–0.823 (approx. lower Bollinger band daily), 0.815 (today’s hourly low), 0.800 (psychological), 0.788 (May 31 daily low), 0.773, 0.755 (older daily pivots).

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 10D SMA ≈ 0.924; 20D SMA ≈ 0.921 (computed from last 20 closes). Price at 0.834 trades ~9–10% below both: bearish trend state.
• 50D SMA (est.) ≳ 0.95. Price well below, reinforcing the dominant downtrend.
• Intraday EMAs (hourly): Price persistently below 20/50 EMA stacks; bearish alignment with dynamic resistance near 0.845–0.855.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 44 (computed). Sub-50 momentum with room to fall; not oversold, so further downside is technically permissible before a reflexive bounce.
• Hourly RSI: oscillating in the 30–45 band on downswings; rallies fade near 50–55, confirming trend continuation characteristics.
• Stochastic (intraday): frequently pinned sub-30 on sell waves, consistent with “bearish momentum with shallow bounces.”

5. MACD/Trend energy

• Daily MACD is below signal and zero line (qualitatively consistent with price under MAs); histogram recently re-expanded negative post Aug 14. No bullish crossover in sight.
• Hourly MACD: minor attempts to curl are failing beneath zero; rallies are losing momentum beneath prior breakdowns.

6. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily est. 0.065–0.075. That implies typical 24h swings of ~7–9% from the open; room for a move from 0.848 entry down toward 0.80 within a day if momentum persists.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Midline ≈ 0.921; lower band estimated 0.82–0.84. Price is hugging the lower band—classic “band walk” behavior in a downtrend. Expect weak mean-reversion attempts to be sold until there’s a decisive momentum shift.

7. Ichimoku (contextual)

• On 1–4h lenses (qualitative): Price below cloud; Tenkan < Kijun and price < both; future cloud likely flat/descending around 0.86–0.88. Thick overhead resistance suggests rallies into 0.85–0.87 have high fade probability.

8. Volume, VWAP, and flow

• Daily volume since Aug 14 has been elevated on down days (Aug 14, 15, 18) and lighter on up days—a classic distribution pattern.
• Intraday Aug 19: Hourly VWAP sits around 0.842–0.846; price closes below. Rejections at VWAP on multiple hours indicate sellers defending control.
• OBV (qualitative): Stepping down since Aug 14’s strong sell day; no bullish divergence visible.

9. Price action patterns

• Descending channel since early August, with clear lower highs (1.034 on Aug 13, 0.988 on Aug 12 previously, then 0.953–0.975 cluster) and lower lows (0.874 on Aug 15, 0.868 on Aug 18, now testing 0.834/0.815 intraday).
• Bear flag breakdown: Aug 16–18 formed a flag between ~0.885 and 0.913; Aug 19 broke the lower boundary and accelerated down to 0.815–0.834.
• Candles: A sequence of small-bodied bearish continuations intraday with lower shadows absorbed; lack of strong reversal candles near supports.

10. Fibonacci structure

• Intraday swing (Aug 17 high 0.9128 to Aug 19 low 0.8152 hourly): Key retracements lie at 0.846 (61.8%), 0.836 (50%), 0.825 (38.2%). The market already probed 0.846–0.848 and failed—prime short area on retests.
• Larger swing (Aug 13 high 1.034 to Aug 15 low 0.874, recovery to 0.913 failed): Price is below the 38.2–61.8% retrace band of that downswing, suggesting trend continuation.
• Extension: A 1.0–1.272 extension of the 0.885→0.868 break projects into 0.81–0.80, aligning with psychological support.

11. Wyckoff/Elliott-style read

• Wyckoff: Post-distribution markdown phase, with upthrusts failing at supply nodes (0.868–0.871). No evidence of accumulation (no spring or SOS); current action resembles a weak attempt at AR (automatic reaction) that stalls under resistance.
• Elliott (heuristic): A 5-wave intraday decline from ~0.868 may be in wave 4 chop toward 0.845–0.855; wave 5 could target 0.81–0.80 before a larger corrective bounce.

12. Probabilistic 24h outlook

• Base case (55%): Relief bounce into 0.845–0.855 meets supply; rejection drives price to 0.812–0.805, stabilizing near 0.81.
• Bear extension (25%): Shallow bounce caps under 0.842; accelerated sell-through toward 0.798–0.790 before snapping back to ~0.805–0.812.
• Bull surprise (20%): Stronger squeeze above 0.855 triggers stops, probing 0.868–0.871; sellers likely re-engage there given higher-timeframe downtrend.

13. Risk management notes (for context)

• Ideal short entries cluster at 0.846–0.855 (VWAP/Fibo/EMA confluence). A protective stop would sit above 0.871 (failed breakdown invalidation). Risk ~0.02–0.03 to target ~0.046–0.05 gives ~1.7–2.3R to 0.802.
• If price fails to bounce and trades below 0.828 with momentum, rallies back to 0.836–0.840 can be used as secondary entries.

Conclusion

• The confluence of sub-SMA trading, bearish momentum, VWAP rejections, breakdown of 0.868 support, and continuation patterns argue for selling into strength. Expect a retest of 0.845–0.855 that is likely to fail, with follow-through toward 0.81–0.80 in the next 24 hours.
• Actionable plan: Place a short (Sell) limit near 0.848. First target 0.802 to take profit ahead of the 0.800 psychological magnet.