dogwifhat Price Analysis Powered by AI

WIF breaks out on surge volume: buy the dip near 0.905 for a run at 0.95 within 24 hours

Executive summary

Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish with a buy-the-dip preference. Expect a pullback toward 0.903–0.908, then a push into 0.943–0.955 resistance.
Rationale: Intraday bullish market structure shift on heavy volume, reclaim of 20‑day SMA, 50% Fib of the recent downswing achieved, and pivot confluence around 0.903–0.905 (yesterday’s R2). Overhead supply sits at the 61.8% Fib (~0.943) overlapping with a prior supply shelf at 0.95–0.97.

Multi-timeframe price/volume context Daily (swing picture)

Trend since late July: Lower highs from 1.27 (Jul 22) to the 0.82–0.85 cluster mid–late Aug, i.e., a corrective downtrend after the July blow‑off top.
Recent behavior: A three‑day stabilization and bounce: 8/19 close 0.8248 → 8/20 0.8701 → 8/21 0.8496 → today 0.9189 (as of last update). Today’s candle is large and green, likely a bullish outside/engulfing relative to 8/21, signaling momentum turn.
Volatility: Daily ATR roughly 0.08–0.11 over the last weeks, implying typical 24h moves in the 9–12% band, making a 0.94–0.96 test feasible.
Volume: Rising on green sessions in late day; the rally day shows strong intraday participation.

Hourly (execution picture)

Structure: Clear break in structure after a selling climax: low near 0.796–0.812 during the 12:00–13:00 UTC block, then a high‑energy expansion candle at 14:00 to 0.877 on very large volume (108M), followed by continued higher highs into 0.922–0.923. This is a classical shift from distribution to markup on the intraday tape.
Consolidation: After spiking 0.9229, price is hovering ~0.918–0.922 with lighter volume, suggesting a likely pullback to reload bids.
Volume pattern: Climax → consolidation → continuation, supportive of another leg up after a dip.

Key levels and confluences

Supports: 0.903–0.905 (intraday shelf, near yesterday’s pivot R2 and today’s developing VWAP bands), 0.895–0.898 (minor), 0.880–0.886 (Fib 38.2% from the swing; also prior congestion), 0.850–0.852 (prior daily close), and 0.80–0.81 (session low cluster, must hold for the bullish case to survive).
Resistances: 0.923–0.925 (R3 magnet and session high), 0.943–0.945 (61.8% Fib retrace of the 8/13 high → 8/22 low), 0.953–0.974 (dense supply band from 8/7–8/11), 1.00 (psychological, upper daily Bollinger estimate).

Indicator suite and calculations Moving averages

20‑day SMA (approx): ~0.920. Current price 0.9189 is essentially at the 20‑D mean; today’s push represents a reclaim attempt of the mid‑band. Positive short‑term signal if maintained into the daily close.
50‑day SMA (approx): Likely ~0.98–1.02 (given July strength). Price remains below, so the higher‑timeframe trend is still corrective. Short‑term longs should respect overhead resistance.
1H EMAs (qualitative): Post‑spike, price is above rising 20/50‑EMA equivalents; a bullish MA stack typically favors buying pullbacks toward the 20–50 EMA zone, which aligns with 0.903–0.908.

RSI and Stochastics

Daily RSI(14) (est.): Recovering from mid‑30s/low‑40s to ~45–50 after today’s rally; this is a momentum turn zone with room to run before overbought.
1H RSI(14): Likely elevated (~60–70) post‑impulse; this favors a near‑term dip/reversion into RSI 50–55 on a pullback before another push.
Stochastic (1H): Likely overbought; an ebb into neutral is consistent with a pullback entry.

MACD

Daily MACD: Histogram flattening and likely ticking up; signal line cross is plausible if price holds above ~0.90 over the next sessions. This underpins a short‑term bullish bias.
1H MACD: Bullish after the 14:00 expansion; look for a shallow bear cross during the pullback to reset momentum before continuation.

Bollinger/Keltner

Daily BB: Middle band near the 20‑D SMA (~0.92). Lower band likely ~0.82; upper band ~1.02. Riding from mid to upper band is consistent with a 0.94–0.96 test.
1H BB: Upper band tagged near 0.922; expect mean reversion to mid‑band ~0.90–0.905, matching the planned entry.

Average True Range (ATR)

Daily ATR ~0.09 (est.). From 0.919, the one‑ATR upside projects ~1.01; downside ~0.83. A 0.943–0.955 target sits comfortably within one ATR.

VWAP

Session VWAP (approx): Given the bulk of volumes around 0.81–0.90, the anchored session VWAP sits below spot; price is above VWAP—trend day characteristics. A pullback toward 0.903–0.908 would be a healthy tag of intraday dynamic support.

Pivot points (classic, based on 8/21 H/L/C)

H = 0.881159, L = 0.832854, C = 0.849613
P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.854542
R1 = 2P − L ≈ 0.876230
R2 = P + (H−L) ≈ 0.902847
R3 = H + 2(P−L) ≈ 0.924535 Observation: Price exploded through R1 and R2, kissed R3 (0.9229/0.9245 confluence) and paused—textbook. The optimal dip buy is typically near R2 on such days: ~0.903.

Fibonacci mapping

Swing high 8/13: 1.034064 → swing low today: 0.795879. Range ≈ 0.238185.
38.2%: 0.795879 + 0.0909 ≈ 0.8868 (reclaimed).
50%: ≈ 0.9150 (achieved/in play at 0.9189).
61.8%: ≈ 0.9430 (primary next resistance/target). This aligns with horizontal supply—excellent confluence.
Extension (if 0.905 pullback holds): A (0.796→0.922) leg = 0.126. From 0.905, 1.0x ≈ 1.031, 0.786x ≈ 1.004. Within 24h, a conservative partial extension to 0.95–0.97 is plausible but 1.00+ needs broader market cooperation.

Trendlines/channels

Down‑sloping daily supply line from late July likely intersects ~0.94–0.96. First touch usually rejects on the initial attempt; hence targeting just in front (0.953) is prudent for a 24h swing.

Wyckoff/Elliott structure

Wyckoff: Selling climax (SC) near 0.80, automatic rally (AR) to 0.877, secondary test (ST) ~0.81, sign of strength (SOS) to 0.92. Expect an LPS pullback to ~0.90–0.905 before the next SOS toward 0.94–0.95.
Elliott (1H): Wave 1 up (0.796→0.877), wave 2 down (0.877→0.809), wave 3 up (0.809→0.922). Anticipated wave 4 pullback into 0.903–0.908, then wave 5 toward 0.943–0.955. Invalidation if wave 4 breaches the territory of wave 1 origin (<~0.877) on closing basis intraday.

Market profile/value areas (qualitative)

High‑volume nodes around 0.90–0.92 and 0.85–0.87; fresh acceptance is forming above 0.90. Targeting 0.95 aims for the next low‑volume area where price typically moves faster but can reject on first test.

Scenario planning (24h)

Base case (60%): Pullback to 0.903–0.908 (R2/EMA/BB mid confluence), buyers defend, rally extends to 0.943–0.955, stalling just below dense supply.
Range case (25%): Price oscillates 0.900–0.925 consolidating below R3; breakout deferred to the next session.
Bear surprise (15%): Loss of 0.895 → acceleration to 0.886–0.880. If 0.880 fails, revisit 0.85–0.86. This path likely requires broader market weakness.

Trade plan and risk framing

Strategy: Buy the dip into confluence support; avoid chasing the spike into R3.
Entry (limit): 0.904–0.905 aligns with yesterday’s R2 (0.9028), 1H mid‑band, and potential wave‑4 retrace.
Target (TP): 0.953 aligns with the 61.8% Fib cluster (0.943–0.945) and the lower edge of the 0.95–0.97 supply zone, front‑running expected sell liquidity.
Protective stop (not part of requested fields, but for risk): 0.882–0.885 (below Fib 38.2% and prior shelf). From 0.905 entry, risk ≈ 0.020–0.023; reward ≈ 0.048 → R:R ~2.1–2.4:1.
Alternate trigger: If no dip, breakout‑retest buy above 0.925 on a successful retest toward 0.918–0.920, still targeting 0.95 with a tighter stop below 0.910.

Why not short here?

The market just flipped intraday structure on high volume and reclaimed the 20‑D SMA. Shorting directly into a momentum reversal and mid‑band reclaim has unfavorable probabilities until 0.943–0.955 is tested and rejected.

Risk notes

Overhead supply is real in the 0.95–0.97 band; expect responsive sellers. If BTC/majors weaken materially, WIF could fail the 0.90 hold. Size accordingly and avoid over‑leveraging.

24h price path projection

Path of maximum pain for late shorts: Dip to ~0.904, squeeze to 0.943–0.955, fade into the close of the 24h window. Base case peak ~0.95 with intraday volatility ±0.02 around the ascent.

Decision: Buy the dip; aim to exit ahead of the 0.95 supply wall.