WIF breaks the 0.78 floor: Bounce to sell, eyes on 0.72 next

Summary view

• Signal: Bearish continuation after a clean breakdown of intraday supports (0.792 → 0.780 → 0.770). Next 24h base case is a bounce-retest-fail pattern into 0.775–0.785 followed by continuation toward 0.73–0.72.
• Plan: Short on a reflexive bounce into the broken shelf. Optimal entry zone 0.772–0.780. Take profit ahead of the next demand pocket near 0.72.

Step-by-step, multi-tool analysis

1. Price action and market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily (D): Since late July’s spike (1.29 on 7/20–22), WIF transitioned into a series of lower highs (1.27 → 1.16 → 1.07 → 0.93) and lower lows, forming a clear downtrend channel. The last three daily sessions show heavy supply: 8/22 bear day from 0.933→0.932 close 0.932; 8/23 failed follow-through and 8/24 lower high 0.919; 8/25 now extends lower, printing a wide-range red day with fresh swing lows (0.763). This is classic trend continuation.
• 4H/H1 (intraday): The hourly tape displays a clean cascade of lower highs: 0.891 (02:00) → 0.885 (03:00) → 0.875 → 0.868 → 0.849 → 0.834 → 0.823 → 0.810 → 0.806 → 0.792 → 0.764. The slope steepened during US hours, culminating in a decisive breakdown candle at 20:00 (0.786→0.764 with elevated volume). Market structure is unambiguously bearish; any bounce is a candidate for selling into overhead supply.
• Micro structure: Prior supports at 0.806–0.810, 0.792, and 0.780 failed and should act as resistance on retests. The most immediate inflection is 0.775–0.780 (20:00 breakdown ledge).

2. Key levels (derived from the provided history)

• Immediate resistance: 0.775–0.780 (freshly broken shelf), 0.792 (19:00 low/close), 0.806–0.810, 0.822–0.826, 0.834–0.844, 0.864–0.871 (prior day’s value area).
• Immediate support: 0.760–0.764 (current print), 0.754–0.760 (June cluster: 6/26–6/27), 0.739–0.742 (June 20 vicinity), 0.721–0.726 (minor composite), 0.696 (6/21 swing low). Expect first responsive buyers around 0.75 and stronger bids closer to 0.72.

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily 20SMA/50SMA (approx): With the bulk of closes from late July through mid-Aug around ~0.95–1.07 and last week ~0.85–0.95, price at 0.763 is decisively below the 20D and 50D SMAs. Slope on both has rolled over. Classic bearish alignment.
• Intraday EMAs (H1): Price is below falling 20/50 EMAs, consistently rejecting the 20EMA on weak bounces—typical of momentum down legs.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (H1 estimate): Likely sub-30 after the 19:00–20:00 acceleration. Oversold can persist in downtrends; the common path is a relief bounce to reset RSI toward 40–45, then another leg lower.
• Daily RSI: Drifting into the 30–35 zone—no bullish divergence versus price (new price low, momentum also making new/confirming lows). That’s continuation, not reversal.
• MACD (H1/D): Line below signal with expanding negative histogram post-breakdown; on daily, the histogram has been below zero for weeks and is re-expanding—bearish momentum building.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) Daily (approx): ~0.07–0.10 given recent ranges (e.g., 0.919–0.850 = 0.069; 0.892–0.763 ≈ 0.129). Today shows volatility expansion, which usually persists for 1–3 sessions. Expect another 7–12% potential intraday swing capacity over the next 24h.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Price is riding the lower band (“band walk”), with band width expanding. This supports trend continuation more than immediate mean reversion.

6. Volume, OBV, VWAP context

• Volume: 8/25 hourly breakdown candles carried higher-than-average volume, especially the 19:00–20:00 sequence, signaling active supply rather than illiquid drift. Daily volume today is tracking higher than 8/24—breakdown confirmed by participation.
• OBV (qualitative): Lower highs/lows since 8/07 onward, confirming distribution. No positive divergence.
• Intraday VWAP: With the bulk of trade above current price earlier in the session (mid 0.82–0.86), VWAP should sit well above 0.80. Price below VWAP = sellers in control; rallies toward VWAP likely sold.

7. Ichimoku (trend-state lens)

• H1/H4/D: Price below cloud, baseline > price, conversion < baseline with a bearish stack; future cloud tilted down. No edge for longs until price reclaims/enters the cloud (>0.82–0.84 on H1). Resistance from cloud aligns with our noted supply zones—confluence.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Intraday swing: From the local lower high ~0.891 (02:00) to pre-breakdown low ~0.806, the 0.786 retrace caps near 0.878 (already rejected earlier). Post-breakdown, 0.775–0.780 aligns near a 0.382–0.5 retrace of the 20:00 impulse (0.786→0.764), a classic short-the-bounce pocket.
• Higher-timeframe move: From 7/22 top 1.273 to 8/1 low 0.880, the 0.618–0.786 retrace window (1.06–1.14) capped in mid-Aug before rolling over; current push looks like C-wave/extension lower. 1.272–1.618 extensions of the last A→B→C sequence project into 0.72–0.70, matching our support map.

9. Pattern recognition

• Candles: 8/25 shaping as a large-bodied bearish candle (near Marubozu). Prior day printed a lower-high doji/spinning top at 0.919/0.864—indecision resolved down. Intraday: breakdown bar with close at lows—follow-through likely after a minor pause.
• Structure: Classic “bearish break-and-base” setup. Expect a snapback to the broken ledge then continuation.

10. Pivot points (Classic, using 8/24 H/L/C ≈ 0.919/0.851/0.864)

• P ≈ 0.878; S1 ≈ 0.837; S2 ≈ 0.810; S3 ≈ 0.771. Current 0.763 is trading below S3—an extreme trend day print. Under such conditions, the first bounce often reverts toward S2/S3 but struggles to reclaim S2. That aligns with a 0.775–0.785 sell zone.

11. Elliott/Wyckoff read (qualitative)

• Elliott: The drop from ~0.932 (8/22) subdivides into impulsive waves with shallow bounces—impulsive character, likely wave 3 of a lower-degree sequence, suggesting at least one more push after a small wave-4 bounce.
• Wyckoff: Distribution at 0.90s in mid-Aug, upthrust fails near 8/22–8/23, then markdown. Current action is a markdown acceleration with no sign of absorption yet.

12. Liquidity, stop zones, and likely path

• Liquidation/stop pools likely rest under 0.760 and 0.740. The 20:00 break probably cleaned the 0.78–0.77 stops; next magnet sits at the round 0.750 and then 0.730–0.725 where prior buyers may cluster. A bounce fill back toward 0.775–0.785 would attract fresh shorts (and trapped late longs exiting), setting stage for the next leg.

13. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Bounce from 0.76s toward 0.775–0.785, stall, then trend resumes to 0.735–0.725. Close day near 0.73–0.74.
• Bearish acceleration (25%): Minimal bounce; slice through 0.754 to tag 0.721–0.715 on a volatility flush if volume stays elevated. Partial mean-revert late.
• Bullish squeeze (15%): Strong reclaim of 0.792 and 0.806; push into 0.822–0.826. This would be the first structure improvement, but still below major resistance (0.834–0.844) and likely fades unless follow-through emerges.

14. Risk management framework (for the proposed short)

• Entry: Prefer a limit sell on the bounce at 0.776 (within the 0.772–0.780 ledge). If momentum stalls sooner, consider executing at 0.772–0.775; avoid chasing fresh lows.
• Invalidation (stop, for planning only): Above 0.806–0.810 (reclaim of broken support and H1 20–50EMA confluence). That would signal short-term momentum failure. A tighter traders’ stop could sit just above 0.792 if seeking higher R:R but with higher whipsaw risk.
• Profit target: First objective 0.740–0.735; stretch target 0.725 (near high-probability demand). Take profit a touch above obvious levels to increase fill odds—proposed TP 0.725.
• Indicative R:R: Entry 0.776, stop 0.806 (−0.030), TP 0.725 (+0.051) → ~1:1.7. With a tighter stop at 0.792, R:R ~3.4 but lower win rate.

15. Confluence checklist

• Below daily and intraday trend MAs: Yes
• Momentum negative and expanding: Yes (MACD, RSI, band walk)
• Volume confirms move: Yes (breakdown on increased volume)
• Structure: Lower highs/lows; fresh breakdown of supports: Yes
• Nearby magnet supports for profit-taking: 0.754, then 0.739–0.725: Yes
• Mean-reversion risk: Present, but plan accounts for bounce entry rather than chasing.

16. 24-hour price path forecast

• Asia open/early UTC: Attempted stabilization 0.76s → reflex bounce to 0.775–0.785.
• Mid-session: Sellers reassert below 0.792; drift lower toward 0.750.
• Late session: Extension leg tests 0.735–0.725; profit-taking bounce into the close.

Conclusion

• Trend, momentum, volume, and structure all align bearish. The highest-probability trade in the next 24 hours is to sell a bounce into the 0.775–0.785 supply shelf and target the 0.725 demand pocket. A reclaim of 0.806–0.810 would negate the immediate bearish setup.

Note: Crypto is volatile; use position sizing and hard stops. The analysis is based solely on the provided WIF data and technicals.