WIF’s Post-Capitulation Coil: Buy the Pivot for a Run at 0.61

Executive summary (24h view)

• Bias: Moderately bullish for the next 24 hours, favoring a buy-the-dip setup as long as 0.531–0.538 holds. Expect a grind higher toward 0.605–0.616 with occasional pullbacks.
• Optimal entry: Limit buy around the hourly pivot near 0.574 to harvest better risk/reward.
• Profit target (24h): First target 0.608–0.616 (prior intraday resistance and hourly R1 cluster). Extension if momentum expands: 0.635.
• Key invalidation: Hourly close below 0.537 (S1) would weaken the setup and risks a retest of 0.520–0.507.

Market context and structure

• Regime shift: 2025-10-10 printed an extreme capitulation candle (low ~0.205, close ~0.461, record volume). Subsequent days formed a V-shaped recovery sequence: 10/11 stabilization (~0.48), 10/12 continuation (~0.553), 10/13 push to ~0.618 high and ~0.605 close. 10/14 is a red digestion day but with a higher low versus the capitulation day—consistent with post-capitulation basing.
• Current price: 0.5796, sitting between intraday support (0.556–0.558) and resistance (0.586–0.611). Today’s range: 0.531–0.611.
• Structure: Higher lows since 10/10 (0.205 → 0.460 close → 0.480/0.553/0.605 closes), and today’s intraday low (0.531) is a shallow retracement of the 0.205→0.618 advance.

Multi-timeframe trend check

• Daily trend: Primary downtrend from late July until 10/10, but the post-crash rally has initiated a potential daily trend inflection. Price remains below the falling 20D SMA (est. ~0.75–0.80), so the higher timeframe is not fully bullish yet; however, momentum is improving from deeply oversold.
• 4H/1H trend: Short-term trend has turned up post 10/10. Price reclaimed and is oscillating around short EMAs; pullbacks are finding buyers near 0.54–0.56. The 1H structure shows rising swing lows and a developing bull channel.

Key support/resistance map (confluence)

• Immediate resistance: 0.586–0.588 (minor), 0.606–0.611 (yesterday’s high supply), 0.616–0.618 (hourly R1 / recent local high). Beyond: 0.635–0.636 (daily R1), 0.653–0.666 (R2 cluster / extension zone).
• Immediate support: 0.574 (hourly pivot P), 0.558 (Tenkan/MA confluence on 1H), 0.547–0.551 (intraday shelf), 0.537 (hourly S1). Deeper: 0.520–0.507 (S2 zone and 23.6–38.2% Fib region from the crash rally), 0.480 (post-capitulation close).

Momentum indicators

• RSI: Daily RSI has lifted from oversold and is rising toward the mid-40s to low-50s; constructive but not overbought. 1H RSI sits around neutral-to-slightly positive (mid-50s) after bouncing from sub-40 earlier—supports continuation on dips.
• Stoch RSI (1H): Recycled from oversold to mid-range; room to push higher toward resistance before risk of another reset.
• MACD: Daily MACD is crossing up from deeply negative—typical after capitulation. 1H MACD is slightly positive/flattening; a minor pullback to the signal line near the pivot could precede another push.

Trend/MA signals

• EMAs/SMA (1H): Price reclaimed the short EMAs after testing 0.533–0.547; dips toward the 20–50 EMA region (~0.558–0.572) have found buyers.
• Daily MAs: Price is still beneath the falling 50D/200D (well above), framing this as a countertrend rally on the daily that can extend before meeting heavier supply.

Volatility and bands

• ATR: Daily ATR exploded on 10/10 and remains elevated; 24h realized swings of 6–10 cents are plausible. 1H ATR suggests 1–2.5 cent micro-swings intra-hour.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Bands widened materially; price is mid-to-lower band with the mean far above, leaving room for mean reversion lifts. 1H bands narrowed after the morning drop and are beginning to expand upward—favorable for a measured push toward 0.606–0.616.
• Keltner Channels (1H): Price rotating back into the channel center; a break above the upper KC aligns with a momentum push to the next resistance band.

Volume and participation

• Volume signature: 10/10 capitulation volume was the peak. Subsequent green days saw constructive volume on advances and lighter volume on pullbacks—classic post-washout behavior. Today’s intraday bounce from 0.531 printed improving volume into 0.58s; positive for dip-buy setups.

Ichimoku (1H)

• Tenkan (9) estimated near 0.558; Kijun (26) near 0.57. Price currently above Tenkan and rotating near/above Kijun, suggesting short-term bullish bias. Cloud likely still overhead from the morning selloff, but a test/edge-to-edge attempt into 0.606–0.611 is feasible if price holds above Kijun on dips.

Fibonacci analysis

• Swing reference: 10/10 low ~0.205 to 10/13 high ~0.618.
• Retracement levels from that up-swing: 23.6% ≈ 0.520, 38.2% ≈ 0.460, 50% ≈ 0.411, 61.8% ≈ 0.364.
• Today’s low 0.531 is a shallow ~21% retracement, holding above 23.6%—bullish relative strength. As long as price stays above ~0.520, the shallow-retrace thesis supports another attempt toward the prior high zone.
• Extensions on a break of 0.618: 1.272 ≈ 0.672, 1.414 ≈ 0.694. Within 24h, 0.635–0.666 is the more realistic stretch zone.

Pivot points (classic) and intraday roadmap

• Using 10/14 intraday H/L/C (0.6108/0.5314/0.5796):
  • Pivot P ≈ 0.5739
  • R1 ≈ 0.6165; R2 ≈ 0.6533
  • S1 ≈ 0.5371; S2 ≈ 0.4945
• Price is hovering just above P. This favors a long from P toward R1 as the primary intraday plan.

VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Standard intraday VWAP (late session) sits near the mid/high 0.57s; price stabilizing around it is constructive.
• Anchored VWAP from the 10/10 capitulation low will sit substantially lower; price sustaining above intraday VWAPs while holding shallow retracements indicates buyers in control near the mean.

Candlestick/pattern read

• 10/10 hammer-like flush with extreme lower shadow and follow-through green days on 10/12–10/13—textbook capitulation and reversal behavior.
• Today’s candle shows a long lower tail (0.531→0.58 recovery), suggesting dip demand and absorption of supply.
• 1H shows a developing bull flag/channel after the recovery off 0.531; a break/hold above 0.586 opens the path to 0.606–0.616.

Wyckoff lens

• Phase B/C behavior post-spring: 10/10 looks like a Spring/Shakeout with a subsequent Sign of Strength into 10/12–10/13. Today’s pullback resembles a Last Point of Support (LPS) in the 0.556–0.574 zone. If LPS holds, a markup toward 0.606–0.616 is expected.

Elliott wave (lightweight)

• Interpreting 0.205→0.618 as wave 1/A, 0.618→0.531 as wave 2/B shallow retrace; current advance would be wave 3/C toward 0.616–0.635 in the short term. Failure below 0.520 invalidates the impulsive interpretation.

Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Hold above 0.558–0.574, grind up through 0.586 to tag 0.606–0.616. Consolidate under R1.
• Bull case (25%): Quick reclaim of 0.606–0.611, squeeze to 0.635; stretch target 0.653 on momentum.
• Bear case (15%): Lose 0.574 pivot and 0.558 support, break 0.537 (S1), slide toward 0.520. Deeper risk: 0.507 if momentum sours broadly.

Risk management and execution

• Entry: Prefer a patient limit buy around the hourly pivot (0.574) to avoid chasing. Secondary add zone 0.558–0.562 if a quick dip occurs.
• Invalidation/stop (for reference): Below 0.537 hourly close; conservative stops can sit 0.532–0.536.
• Take-profit: Scale 0.606–0.616; front-run sell orders by placing TP slightly below 0.616.

Why Buy here

• Multiple-tool confluence: shallow Fib retracement, pivot support at 0.574, rising 1H structure, improving momentum, and post-capitulation accumulation signals. Overhead resistance exists, but the path of least resistance appears upward into 0.606–0.616 as long as 0.558–0.574 holds.