WIF coiled for a VWAP-supported push toward the 61.8% retracement

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bullish continuation. Expected path: early pullback toward 0.541–0.543, then extension into 0.558–0.565. Stretch target 0.575–0.582; risk of fade back to 0.533 if 0.541 fails.
• Rationale: Strong intraday trend up with VWAP reclaim, improving daily momentum (RSI ~59), rising hourly structure of higher highs/higher lows, and a magnet at the 61.8% retracement (0.561–0.562) from the 10-13 swing high to the 10-22 swing low. However, daily is still below the 20D/50D SMAs, so upside likely meets supply near 0.56–0.58.

Market structure and trend

• Multi-timeframe trend
  • Daily: Medium-term downtrend from early September (series of lower highs from ~0.98/0.97 down to ~0.76 then capitulation 10-10). Post-crash basing phase since 10-11 with a broad range 0.49–0.61. Short-term upswing last 3 sessions (0.4916 → 0.5468, +11%). Price is still below key moving averages, indicating broader trend remains pressured, but momentum is recovering.
  • Hourly (10-24): Clear intraday uptrend. Sequence of higher lows (~0.529 → ~0.531 → ~0.534 → ~0.539) and higher highs (~0.536 → ~0.541 → ~0.5457 → ~0.5468). Steady grind higher with shallow dips, typical of trend days with buyers in control.
• Wyckoff lens (daily):
  • Selling Climax (SC): 10-10 printed extreme low 0.2053 intraday with huge volume, classic capitulation wick.
  • Automatic Rally (AR): 10-13 to 0.6049.
  • Secondary Test (ST): 10-22 to 0.4916 (higher than SC, lower volume), then rally. This favors the start of an accumulation “markup” attempt within the broader range, targeting prior AR-related resistances.

Key levels (confluent support/resistance)

• Immediate resistance: 0.558–0.565 (Fibo 61.8% of 0.6049→0.4916 leg sits ~0.5616; also local supply from 10-14 to 10-21). Above, 0.575–0.582 (cluster of 10-14/10-21 highs, and 38.2% retrace of 0.764→0.461 at ~0.5775). Major: 0.600–0.612 (10-13 high zone; 50% retrace of 0.764→0.461 at ~0.612).
• Immediate support: 0.541–0.543 (intraday pivot/VWAP region), 0.533–0.535 (hourly structure, 10-24 morning base), 0.525 (10-23 close), 0.506–0.513 (10-16/10-18 lows), and 0.491–0.492 (10-22 ST low).

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily, 14): Approx 59. Calculation on last 14 closes shows avg gain ~0.0153 vs avg loss ~0.0106 → RS ~1.45 → RSI ~59. This indicates positive momentum without being overbought; room to push into low 60s before notable resistance.
• RSI (hourly, 14): Not computed exactly, but price behavior (persistent upper-band taps, shallow pullbacks) suggests RSI hovering in the 60–65 zone—bullish but not extreme. Expect intraday dips to reset RSI toward mid-50s near 0.541–0.543 before another push.
• MACD (daily, 12/26/9): Likely rising from negative territory; histogram improving, signal cross developing/ongoing. This supports a continuation attempt toward the next resistance band (0.56–0.58) over the near term.
• Stochastics: Implicitly elevated on hourly; daily stochs curling up from mid-levels—consistent with a short-term bullish rotation within a broader range.

Moving averages and trend filters

• SMA20 (daily): ~0.584 (est. using 10-05 to 10-24 closes). Price (0.5468) sits below the 20D mean, indicating the immediate rally is still a mean-reversion attempt toward the mid-band/20D SMA.
• SMA50 (daily): Heavily influenced by the pre-crash regime; estimated around ~0.80–0.85. Price well below → medium-term trend remains bearish; rallies should be treated as counter-trend on the daily timeframe until 0.60–0.62 is reclaimed and held.
• Hourly EMAs (8/21): Slope positive; 8>21 and price above both—classic intraday uptrend. Expect dynamic support at the 21-EMA to align with the 0.541–0.543 area in early pullback scenarios.

Bollinger Bands

• Daily (20,2): Center ~0.584. Given high dispersion from 0.46–0.80 in the lookback, bands are wide (rough SD est. ~0.10–0.12). Current price below middle band but rising—typical of a squeeze-out from the lower half toward the mid-band; that mid-band at ~0.584 aligns with the 0.58 supply, adding confluence for a probable stall between 0.575–0.585 over 24–48h.
• Hourly (20,2): Price riding the upper band through multiple candles (momentum regime). Expect mean reversion pullback to the middle band/VWAP (~0.541–0.543) before next leg.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Tenkan above Kijun after the 10-22 low: weak bullish TK cross.
• Price remains below the cloud; projected Kumo overhead likely spans ~0.58–0.62, matching major resistance. Interpretation: Bullish rotation but still a “weak” signal below the cloud; first significant test likely near 0.58.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• From 10-13 H 0.6049 to 10-22 L 0.4916: 38.2% = ~0.5349 (already reclaimed), 50% = ~0.5483 (current zone), 61.8% = ~0.5616 (next magnet). Expect tag/test of 0.561–0.562 within 24h, followed by decision (pause or minor rejection).
• Larger retrace of 10-01 H 0.7642 to 10-10 L 0.4608: 38.2% at ~0.5775, 50% at ~0.6125, 61.8% at ~0.6499. This creates a layered supply shelf 0.577–0.613.

Volume, VWAP, and breadth

• 10-10 printed the cycle’s largest daily volume alongside a massive lower wick—strong capitulation signal.
• 10-12/10-13 high volumes aided AR to ~0.60. Recent sessions: 10-24 hourly volume spikes on breakouts (notably 12:00), followed by steady participation—healthy trend behavior.
• Intraday VWAP (10-24) sits roughly ~0.538–0.541 (from the hourly sequence with heavy prints near 0.5417 and sustained trade above). Current price > VWAP → buyers control; pullbacks to VWAP likely get defended.

Volatility and risk bands

• ATR(14) daily estimated ~0.040 (post-crash cooling). A one-ATR up-move from 0.547 targets ~0.587; a half-ATR mean target ~0.567. This brackets the 0.561–0.582 resistance stack nicely and supports a 24h upside case into that zone.

Candlestick/pattern read

• 10-10: Long lower shadow (capitulation). 10-12: Strong bullish candle (engulfing vs 10-11). 10-22: Swing low with stabilizing follow-through. 10-24 intraday: series of bullish-bodied hours with shallow wicks—trend day characteristics.

Elliott-style micro count (intraday concept)

• From 10-22 low (0.4916): Impulsive structure developing. A near-term wave 3 objective often aligns with 1.618 of wave 1 measured from wave 2, which roughly projects into the 0.56 zone; then a minor wave 4 dip to ~0.537–0.541, and a wave 5 probe toward 0.57–0.575 if momentum persists. This dovetails with the Fibo 61.8% target and the 0.575–0.582 supply cap.

Liquidity and stop clusters

• Resting liquidity likely above 0.548–0.550 (round and prior 50% retrace), then 0.560–0.565. Clearing these offers momentum bursts but also invites profit-taking. Below, stop pools around 0.541 (intraday pivot/VWAP) and 0.533 (morning base); a sweep of 0.541–0.543 that holds would be a high-odds continuation entry.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (≈60%): Early pullback to 0.541–0.543, then push to 0.558–0.565, peaking near 0.561–0.562. Consolidation likely under 0.565.
• Bull extension (≈15%): Clean break and acceptance above 0.565 opens 0.575–0.582; fade expected near 0.58; only a strong impulse and volume expansion would drive through to 0.60.
• Bear fade (≈25%): Failure to hold 0.541–0.543 leads to 0.533–0.535 test; momentum decays and price closes near 0.532–0.538. Break below 0.533 risks a deeper move toward 0.525.

Confluence for a long

• Momentum improving (RSI ~59, MACD rising), intraday trend and VWAP reclaim, higher lows structure, and a clear, nearby upside magnet at the 61.8% retrace (~0.5616). The main headwind is the daily context (below SMA20/SMA50) and the overhead 0.575–0.582 supply. Net: Favor a tactical long aiming at 0.561–0.562 with tight risk.

Trade plan (tactical, 24h)

• Entry: Buy pullback into 0.541 (limit), aligned with intraday VWAP/pivot and hourly MAs.
• Target (TP): 0.562 (aligns with 61.8% retrace and scenario apex). If strong momentum, optional runner could aim 0.575–0.582, but base TP is prudent in 24h window.
• Risk (context only): Invalidation on sustained trade below 0.533; suggested stop for planning would be ~0.529 (below structure and hourly 21EMA zone). R:R from 0.541 → 0.562 vs 0.529 ≈ 1.75:1. Not part of output fields, but critical to consider.

Bottom line

• Near-term momentum plus clear upside magnet favors a Buy-the-dip approach. Expect a test of 0.561–0.562 in the next 24 hours, with potential extension to 0.575–0.582 if volume expands; failure to hold 0.541 would weaken the setup and could drive a retest of 0.533/0.525.