Sell the Bounce: WIF’s Breakdown Points to 0.35 After a Brief 0.40–0.41 Relief Pop

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for WIF (dogwifhat)

1. Market structure and trend

• Higher timeframe (Daily): The structure is decisively bearish. After the Oct 10 capitulation (intraday low near 0.2053, close 0.4608), price rebounded to the 0.60–0.62 area mid-October and then carved a series of lower highs and lower lows. The late-Oct value area (0.53–0.57) broke down on Nov 3 with an outsized bearish candle (close 0.4404), confirming distribution and the breakdown of the 0.49–0.53 floor. Today (Nov 4) extended the trend with a new local low near 0.3721; last trade 0.3875.
• Intermediate (4H/1H proxy from intraday feed): Today’s session shows a trend day down: lower highs, lower lows, sustained trade below intraday VWAP, and an inability to reclaim broken intraday supports. The 0.45 area was rejected early; successive support failures at 0.43, 0.41, and 0.40 followed.
• Conclusion: Downtrend intact on all observed timeframes. Any bounces are currently better categorized as mean-reversion rallies within a bearish regime.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily SMA(20): ≈0.525 (estimate from last 20 closes). Price at 0.3875 is far below the 20SMA; the slope is negative and expanding – bearish.
• Daily EMA(8)/EMA(21): Both are falling and stacked bearishly above price; price has been below the EMA8/21 ribbon since Nov 3’s breakdown – bearish.
• Daily SMA(50)/SMA(200): Both well above spot; slopes down. The 50 below the 200 would indicate a broader bear regime; in any case price is far beneath both – bearish.
• Signal: Strong trend confirmation to the downside, reducing the reliability of oversold oscillators for immediate reversals.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily: Likely in the mid-20s to low-30s after two large down days (Nov 3 and 4). This indicates oversold, but in trending markets RSI can remain oversold while price continues lower (“bearish momentum lock”).
• Stochastic: Oversold with potential for a short-duration mean-reversion pop; however, no confirmed bullish cross on daily as of last close.
• MACD Daily: MACD histogram expanding negative and lines below zero with widening separation – bearish momentum acceleration. No sign of a positive inflection yet.
• CCI(20): Deeply negative, consistent with short-term capitulation risk but also with trend continuation.
• ADX(14): Rising (inferred) with negative DI dominance – trend strength increasing in favor of bears.
• Takeaway: Momentum is bearish with only a tactical case for a brief bounce; no durable reversal signal.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) Daily: Midline ≈0.525; lower band likely around low-to-mid 0.46s before today’s expansion. Price is riding and extending below the lower band, suggesting trend-acceleration with volatility expansion rather than a clean mean-reversion regime. Band expansion today signals a continuation phase.
• ATR Daily: Expanded materially since Oct 10; today’s intraday range (~0.372–0.452 ≈ 0.08) is large relative to recent days, indicating rising realized volatility. Expect wider swings over the next 24 hours.
• Keltner Channels: Price below the lower KC, consistent with momentum-driven downside and possible orderly grind lower after a brief snapback.

5. Volume, OBV, and distribution

• Volume profile (daily): Highest recent sell-side pressure on Oct 10 (capitulation), renewed heavy sell volume Nov 3 and elevated today intraday – distribution characteristics.
• OBV: Lower lows since mid-October; no accumulation basing evident.
• Up/Down day analysis: Rallies in late Oct were on decaying volume; sell days (Nov 3–4) are heavier, implying sellers control tape.
• Takeaway: Flow confirms the bearish trend and breakdown; rallies are likely to be sold.

6. Intraday VWAP and microstructure

• Today’s session VWAP (estimated): ≈0.41–0.42 given the time-weighted trade above 0.44 early and heavy time/volume spent in the 0.39–0.41 area after the breakdown. Price is currently well below VWAP; attempts toward VWAP have been rejected. Expect VWAP/sessions highs (0.405–0.415) to act as supply on first retest.
• Hourly swings: Lower highs at ~0.451, ~0.425, ~0.407; lower lows stair-step to ~0.372. Persistent inability to close above prior swing high keeps short-term structure bearish.

7. Key levels (support/resistance)

• Resistance (nearest): 0.400–0.405 (intraday supply/VWAP zone), then 0.415–0.420 (hourly breakdown pivot), then 0.440–0.452 (Nov 3 close and today’s early high).
• Support (nearest): 0.380–0.372 (today’s low cluster), then 0.360–0.355 (measured move and round-number magnet), then 0.340–0.335 (projection from channel/ATR expansion). Below that, 0.320 and the Oct 10 capitulation zone 0.205 as tail risk.
• Volume nodes: A thin pocket appears between ~0.40 and ~0.37 from today’s fast move; price often revisits to fill some of that inefficiency before trend resumption.

8. Pattern and structure diagnostics

• Bear flag breakdown: Late Oct’s 0.53–0.57 consolidation looks like a flag after the Oct 10 drop; Nov 3 broke the base decisively. Today’s action is the continuation leg.
• Descending channel: Connecting mid-Oct swing highs to late-Oct/Nov highs and lows maps a downward channel; price trades near the lower rail, favoring a small relief bounce then another push down.
• Liquidity/stop run behavior: No evident sweeping of a major prior swing low today beyond the new low; suggests the sell program remains active with liquidity below 0.372.

9. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Using the post-capitulation rebound leg (approx low 0.205 to high 0.611): 61.8% of that range sits near 0.456 (already lost), 78.6% near 0.524 (lost in late Oct). The loss of 0.456 strengthens the case for deeper retracement into the 0.34–0.36 region (near 88.6% of the rebound and channel projections).
• Measured move from the breakdown of the 0.49–0.53 range (height ~0.04–0.05): Break under 0.49 projects to ~0.44–0.45 (first target, hit), and extension of the same magnitude below 0.45 points into ~0.40–0.40; the next equal-leg extension targets ~0.36–0.35.

10. Ichimoku, SAR, DeMark, Elliott

• Ichimoku (daily): Price below conversion/base and well below a red forward cloud – bearish. No edge-to-edge opportunity.
• Parabolic SAR: Above price and stepping down – confirms trend; likely to cap rallies.
• DeMark Sequential (inferred): Near exhaustion counts on short intraday horizons, which argues for a tactical bounce; daily likely mid-count in a downside sequence – suggests bounce is tactical, not durable.
• Elliott Wave (heuristic): Post-bounce decline from mid-Oct can be labeled as an impulsive C or a new primary impulse; today looks like subwave iii of a down leg, often followed by a shallow iv bounce into resistance (0.400–0.410) before a v drop toward 0.355–0.345.

11. Statistical/quant observations

• Regime: Strong negative drift with high volatility; positive skew on down-move magnitudes (bigger red candles). In such regimes, mean-reversion entries against trend underperform unless confluence exists.
• 24h distribution: With ATR expansion, a 0.04–0.07 absolute move (10–18%) is statistically reasonable. The path of least resistance remains down after a bounce toward supply.

12. 24-hour path forecast

• Base case (~60%): Relief rally toward 0.399–0.407 (VWAP/supply), failure, then trend resumption to 0.360–0.352. End-of-window around 0.365–0.375.
• Range case (~30%): Choppy 0.380–0.405 consolidation building energy below resistance; net flat to slightly lower.
• Squeeze risk (~10%): Reclaim of 0.415–0.420 triggers a sharper short-covering move into 0.440–0.452 where larger supply should cap the move.

13. Trade plan synthesis

• Bias: Sell rallies within 0.400–0.407 toward next supports.
• Optimal entry: 0.399 (front-run the 0.400 handle/VWAP retest) with tolerance to 0.407.
• Target: 0.352 (first extension / measured move / prior projection cluster), with partials at 0.368–0.360 if managing actively.
• Risk management (advisory): A logical protective stop sits above 0.415–0.420 (above VWAP+prior swing), offering ~2:1 to 3:1 R:R depending on execution.

Conclusion: The dominant downtrend, breakdown confirmation, expanding bearish momentum, and supply overhead favor shorting a bounce rather than bottom-fishing. Expect a brief mean-reversion pop into 0.40–0.41 followed by continuation lower into the mid-0.35s over the next 24 hours.