WIF at the 50% Fib Pivot: Momentum Builds for a 0.52 Re‑test

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish. Expect a buy-the-dip continuation with a retest of 0.50–0.52 if 0.486–0.490 holds intraday.
• Optimal tactic: Limit buy on pullback into 0.486–0.490 with take-profit into 0.520–0.525. Invalidation on sustained loss of 0.471–0.475.

1. Market structure and multi-timeframe trend

• Daily structure (Aug–Nov):
  • Distribution and downtrend from ~1.00 in mid-Aug → a sequence of lower highs into early Oct (~0.76), followed by a capitulation day on Oct 10 (H 0.742, L 0.205, C 0.461; record volume ~567M). That capitulation often marks a major swing low or the start of a basing process.
  • Post-cap bounce to ~0.605 on Oct 13 (large participation ~449M), then a rolling mean-reversion lower into late Oct (~0.49–0.55 range), a secondary washout Nov 3–4 (C 0.440, then 0.403 with 0.370 low), and now a V-shaped intraday recovery to 0.493.
  • Net: A potential double accumulation (capitulation Oct 10 and a secondary flush Nov 4). This often precedes a multi-session relief rally, provided supports hold.
• 4H/1H structure (Nov 6–7):
  • Clear intraday trend shift: higher lows and higher highs from ~0.424 → ~0.496, with rising volume during the US session. Price has transitioned from balance to trend, riding the upper volatility envelope.
  • Micro structure shows an ascending channel; pullbacks are shallow, indicating strong dip demand.

2. Key levels (derived from price memory, volume, and fibs)

• Support: 0.486–0.490 (intraday demand, prior breakout shelf), 0.478–0.482 (VWAP/MA confluence), 0.471–0.475 (prior swing base), 0.453, 0.440, 0.423, 0.402–0.370 (capitulation zone).
• Resistance: 0.495–0.500 (psych + intraday highs), 0.517–0.525 (fib/overhead supply cluster), 0.545–0.552 (61.8% of Oct 10 collapse), 0.582, 0.605–0.618, 0.644, 0.706–0.73 (pre-crash floor).

3. Fibonacci mapping and confluence

• Oct 1 swing high ~0.764 to Oct 10 capitulation low 0.205:
  • 50% = ~0.485 (price now 0.493 just reclaimed; pivotal). 61.8% = ~0.551. 78.6% ≈ 0.644.
  • Current price consolidating above the 50% line is constructive; next magnet is 0.551 if momentum persists beyond 0.52–0.53.
• Sep 19 local high ~0.991 to Nov 4 low 0.370:
  • 23.6% = ~0.517, 38.2% = ~0.607. Expect first serious supply at ~0.517–0.525 (confluence with historical shelf). This aligns as a prudent 24h target.

4. Moving averages (qualitative estimation)

• Daily MAs: 20D MA likely ~0.52–0.54 and falling; 50D MA likely ~0.70–0.75 and falling. Price below falling 20/50D means broader trend still down, but reclaiming the 20D (around 0.52+) would signal a tactical trend change.
• 1H MAs: 20/50 period MAs sloping up; price riding above both—bullish in the short term.

5. Momentum indicators

• RSI
  • Daily RSI likely mid-40s to low-50s after the bounce; turning up from oversold, not yet overbought—room to run.
  • 1H RSI likely 60–70, consistent with a trend day. Look for pullback toward 50–55 on dips to 0.486–0.490.
• MACD
  • Daily MACD histogram stabilizing with potential bullish turn if price holds above ~0.49 and pushes 0.52+.
  • 1H MACD positive with expanding histogram; any shallow reset is a buy-the-dip cue if signal line holds above zero.
• Stoch/ Stoch RSI
  • 1H in upper band—supports momentum continuation but favors waiting for a small reset to optimize entry.

6. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (1H): Bands expanding; price walking the upper band for multiple hours—a classic trend behavior. A mean reversion to the 20-SMA (estimated mid/high 0.48s) would present the best risk/reward long.
• Keltner Channels (1H): Price hugging/just outside upper KC, confirming trend strength. Expect brief tags of the upper band on pushes toward 0.50–0.51.
• ATR
  • Daily ATR(14) increased meaningfully post-crash; a 24h range of 8–12% is plausible. From 0.493, reaching 0.520–0.525 fits within typical ATR.

7. Volume analytics

• Capitulation day (Oct 10) and large bounce (Oct 13) confirm a major transfer of risk; later the Nov 3–4 flush and today’s recovery show renewed participation.
• Intraday (Nov 7): Volume increasing into the up-move (notably 16:00–18:00 UTC), with OBV rising—supportive of upside continuation.
• Volume profile (recent days): High-volume node in 0.48–0.55 region; acceptance above 0.50 could open a quick move to the next supply at 0.517–0.525, then 0.545–0.552.

8. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price likely below the cloud; Tenkan likely below Kijun but curling; reclaiming 0.52+ could pull Tenkan above Kijun and set up a later cloud test.
• 1H: Price above cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; future cloud turning green; Chikou above price—bullish alignment for the next session.

9. Anchored VWAP and VWAP behavior

• AVWAP from Nov 4 low (0.370) estimated around mid 0.45s; price now above—bullish control from that anchor.
• Session VWAP (today) likely ~0.475–0.482; price above VWAP into the close signals dip buyers are in control. A retest of VWAP/AVWAP confluence (0.478–0.485) is the sweet-spot entry.

10. Candlestick signals

• Daily sequence after Nov 4: hammer-like basing followed by a strong green day in progress—candidate for a bullish follow-through if it closes above ~0.49 and next session opens firm.
• 1H prints show multiple wide-bodied bullish candles, minimal upper wicks near 17–18 UTC, and constructive consolidation near highs—hallmark of trend continuation.

11. Elliott Wave framing (tactical)

• From 0.424 base on Nov 7, intraday shows a 5-wave impulse toward ~0.495:
  • Wave 1: 0.424 → ~0.453; Wave 2: pullback to ~0.437; Wave 3: to ~0.482; Wave 4: to ~0.471; Wave 5: to ~0.495.
• Expect an ABC pullback toward 0.486–0.490 (A/B oscillation) before a new impulse that can probe 0.505–0.515. If momentum is strong, an extension can tag 0.520–0.525.

12. Wyckoff perspective

• Phase C–D behavior post secondary test (Nov 3–4) with a spring below 0.44/0.40 and swift reclaim to 0.49 suggests accumulation under way. A sign of strength (SOS) would be acceptance above 0.50, followed by a backup (BUEC) into 0.49 that holds.

13. Parabolic SAR / trend stops

• 1H PSAR likely flipped long during the New York push and is trailing near 0.472–0.480. A pullback that keeps price above the PSAR continues the long bias.

14. Risk assessment and scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Buy-the-dip holds 0.486–0.490, breakout through 0.500 to 0.515–0.525. Rationale: momentum + OBV trend + fib 50% reclaim + hourly uptrend.
• Pullback/consolidation (30%): Range 0.475–0.500 with choppy mean reversion; breakout postponed to next session. Rationale: overhead supply at 0.50/0.517.
• Bearish surprise (15%): Sharp rejection 0.495–0.500, loss of 0.471–0.475 sends price back to 0.453–0.460. Would likely require broader market risk-off or news catalyst.

15. Trade plan construction

• Entry: Prefer limit buy near 0.489 (in the 0.486–0.490 demand box), aligned with 1H mean and prior breakout shelf.
• Target: 0.522 (first overhead confluence: 23.6% retrace from the Sep high to Nov low and a well-observed supply shelf). Stretch target 0.545–0.552 if momentum accelerates; however, 0.522 is the more probable 24h print.
• Invalidation (not executed here, but for risk framing): A sustained break below 0.471–0.475 would invalidate the immediate long momentum structure; a daily close back below ~0.460 would negate the bullish reversal setup.

16. Why not short here?

• Shorting into rising OBV, upper-band walk, and a reclaimed 50% fib (0.485) is a low-probability bet unless 0.500 rejects and 0.475 fails. The path of least resistance is up into nearby supply.

17. Time/flow considerations

• US session just printed the expansion leg; Asia often continues initial momentum or re-tests VWAP. Expect early-Asia dip buys to defend 0.486–0.490; watch the first 2–3 hours for the entry fill, then a grind toward 0.505–0.515 with a late-session attempt at 0.52.

Bottom line

• Setup quality: Medium-high for a tactical long.
• Edge source: Multi-signal confluence—50% fib reclaim, intraday trend, VWAP/OBV confirmation, and clean upside air into 0.52.
• Plan: Buy on a modest pullback; take profit into first major supply; re-evaluate momentum for any runner toward 0.545–0.552.

Note: This is a trading opinion based solely on the provided data; manage risk appropriately in a volatile asset.