WIF at the Pivot Edge: Fade the Pop into 0.362–0.364, Target the 0.346 Magnet

Scope and context

• Instrument: dogwifhat (WIF), USD-quoted
• Current price: 0.3593 (snapshot 2025-11-25 ~21:57 UTC)
• Data: Daily candles from 2025-08-28 to 2025-11-25; intraday (hourly) from 2025-11-24 22:00 to 2025-11-25 21:57
• Objective: Predict next 24h move, derive trade direction, and specify optimal open and close prices

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Daily trend: Strongly bearish. After peaking near 0.98 on 2025-09-13, the market rolled over. Major breakdown on 2025-10-10 (intraday low 0.205, close 0.461) initiated a regime change with persistent lower highs/lows. A second leg lower in mid-November culminated in a capitulation-type day on 2025-11-21 (H 0.388, L 0.312, C 0.328, very high volume).
• Post-capitulation bounce: 2025-11-22 to 2025-11-24 lifted price from 0.328 to a 0.376 local high, but this retrace stalled below obvious daily resistances (0.392–0.408 and 0.416–0.422), keeping the broader downtrend intact.
• Current daily structure: Lower high at 0.376 vs prior swing 0.416 (11-18), confirming continued bearish market structure. Price back below the 11-24 close (0.3762) and hovering under the calculated daily pivot for today.
• Hourly trend (last 24h): Price oscillated mostly 0.347–0.361. Attempted rebounds into 0.359–0.361 were repeatedly sold. The 15:00 UTC hour tagged 0.3446 intraday before a modest bounce; subsequent highs capped ~0.360.

2. Key levels (confluence from S/R, pivots, Fibonacci, intraday prints)

• Immediate resistance: 0.359–0.361 (hourly supply/failed break zone), 0.362–0.364 (daily pivot area + micro VWAP zone), 0.368–0.372 (descending TL / hourly cloud), 0.376 (recent swing high), 0.392–0.408 (R1/R2 band from pivot calc and prior daily supply).
• Immediate support: 0.353–0.355 (hourly shelf), 0.3515 (Fib 38.2% of the 0.312→0.376 bounce), 0.3462 (daily S1 pivot), 0.3446 (today’s intraday low), 0.338–0.336 (Fib 61.8% of bounce, plus 11-22/23 area), 0.332 (multi-day shelf), 0.328 (11-21 close), 0.316–0.312 (S2 pivot / swing low).

3. Pivot points (based on 2025-11-24 H/L/C = 0.37821 / 0.33221 / 0.37623)

• Pivot P ≈ (0.37821 + 0.33221 + 0.37623)/3 ≈ 0.3622
• R1 = 2P − L ≈ 0.3922
• S1 = 2P − H ≈ 0.3462
• R2 = P + (H − L) ≈ 0.4082
• S2 = P − (H − L) ≈ 0.3162 Current price 0.3593 is below P (0.3622), biasing toward S1 (0.3462) unless reclaimed.

4. Fibonacci analysis

• Macro swing: High 0.9883 (09-13) → Low 0.3123 (11-21). Range ≈ 0.676. • 23.6% up from low ≈ 0.4718 (coincides with November stall under ~0.50) • 38.2% ≈ 0.570 (late-October/early-November consolidation area ~0.55–0.58) Price remains far below these macro retraces → larger trend still down.
• Micro swing: Low 0.3123 → High 0.3762 (11-24). Range ≈ 0.0639. • 23.6% retrace ≈ 0.3609 (just lost intraday) • 38.2% ≈ 0.3516 • 50% ≈ 0.3440 • 61.8% ≈ 0.3364 Loss of 23.6% suggests gravity toward 0.3516/0.3440 next; confluence with S1 (0.3462) strengthens the 0.344–0.351 zone as a likely magnet.

5. Moving averages (approximated from recent closes)

• Daily 20SMA: Likely ~0.48–0.50 given late-Oct/early-Nov prints; price well below → bearish regime.
• Daily 50SMA: Likely ~0.60–0.65 (dragged up by September’s 0.8–0.95) → far above, confirming a deep bear structure.
• Daily 9/12/21 EMAs: All likely stacked bearishly with price below the shortest EMA; rallies failing near the 9–12EMA ribbon consistent with trend following short setups.
• Hourly 20/50 EMA: Price oscillating around/under the 50EMA, with the 20EMA capping bounces ~0.360–0.361. Bearish micro-bias.

6. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): After capitulation, RSI recovered from oversold but likely sub-45, consistent with bear-market rallies. Failure to reclaim 50 = continued bearish pressure.
• Hourly RSI: Oscillated 35–48; bounces to ~0.36 did not push RSI above midline, suggesting weak momentum.
• Daily MACD: Below zero, histogram contracting modestly during the bounce and now flattening/rolling → risk of bear continuation.
• Hourly MACD: Minor bull attempts fade near zero-line; no sustained crossover impulse.
• Stochastics (hourly): Short resets near midline with swift failures, typical in grindy downtrends.

7. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily Bollinger: Mid-band (20SMA) far above current price; price oscillating around lower band during November; bounce reverted toward mid of the lower-lower range then faded → trend continuation risk.
• Hourly Bollinger: Upper band ~0.364–0.366, lower band ~0.353–0.355 (approx). Price near center to upper mid, leaving room for a push to lower band retests.
• ATR: Recent daily true ranges often 0.03–0.05. Expect next 24h realized range about 0.016–0.025 around the mean, adequate for tactical shorts.

8. Volume analysis

• Massive volume spikes on 10-10 (crash) and 11-21 (capitulation) mark regime changes. Post-11-21 bounce volume diminished into 11-24’s high (0.376) → classic dead-cat bounce signature.
• Intraday on 11-25 shows modest buying unable to expand volume up through 0.361–0.362, implying offers sitting overhead.
• OBV (qualitative): Downtrend with a minor uptick post 11-21, now flattening/fading.

9. Ichimoku (directional bias)

• Daily: Price below cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; Lagging Span under price and under cloud → full bearish stack.
• Hourly: Thin cloud overhead ~0.364–0.366 with Span A sloping down; any pop toward 0.364–0.366 likely meets resistance.

10. Market structure and pattern reading

• Descending channel: Lower highs (0.498 → 0.460 → 0.442 → 0.403 → 0.388 → 0.376) with lower lows culminate in 0.312. Current action sits mid-to-lower channel, heading to retest lower boundary zones.
• Bear flag: 11-22 to 11-24 bounce constitutes a flag against the 11-21 impulse; breakdown below 0.360–0.361 suggests flag resolution lower targeting 0.346 then 0.336–0.338.
• Liquidity pockets: Unfinished business 0.351–0.352 (hourly shelf) and 0.338–0.336 (fib + shelf); resting bids likely there, making them tactical downside magnets.

11. Mean reversion vs. trend following

• Mean reversion: A test of 0.346–0.351 is probable given current location vs. pivot and fibs.
• Trend following: The higher timeframe downtrend favors fading pops into 0.362–0.366 and 0.368–0.372 rather than buying dips.

12. Scenario mapping for next 24 hours

• Base case (≈55%): Drift lower toward 0.351–0.346, tag S1 (0.3462), potential wick into 0.344–0.345, then minor bounce. Range expectation: 0.344–0.362.
• Range alternative (≈30%): Contained 0.351–0.365 chop; repeated failures near 0.362–0.364 with higher lows holding 0.351–0.353.
• Squeeze risk (≈15%): Short-cover to 0.368–0.372 (trendline/cloud), with a stretch target 0.376 if momentum spikes; still likely capped below 0.392 unless a regime change occurs.

13. Trade plan and execution logic

• Direction: Short the bounce, aligned with the dominant daily downtrend, failed reclaim of daily pivot, and micro loss of the 23.6% fib of the 0.312→0.376 bounce.
• Optimal entry (limit sell): 0.3622–0.3640 zone offers confluence (daily pivot ≈0.3622, hourly resistance). I will specify 0.3622 as the optimal open.
• Profit target (take profit): First target at S1/Fib cluster 0.3462 (conservative, high-probability magnet in 24h window). A more ambitious extension sits 0.338–0.336, but 0.346 maximizes hit-rate within the next session.
• Invalidation (not required but prudent): A sustained push and hourly close above 0.372 (trendline/cloud break) weakens the short; a daily close above 0.376 negates the setup.
• Risk context: This captures roughly 4.4%–4.7% downside from entry with tight invalidation overhead; ATR supports feasibility.

14. Bottom line

• The path of least resistance remains down. The bounce has stalled below pivot and local supply; micro supports are being tested. Confluence across pivots, Fibonacci, intraday structure, Ichimoku, and moving average posture favors a Sell-the-rip approach into 0.362–0.364, targeting 0.346.

Prediction (next 24h)

• Bias: Bearish-to-neutral with a downside lean.
• Expected path: Pop toward 0.362–0.364 gets sold; price gravitates to 0.351–0.346 with a likely probe of 0.346 (S1). Chance of brief liquidity sweep to 0.344, then small bounce.
• Upside risk boundary: 0.368–0.372; breakout through 0.372 increases odds of 0.376 test, but that remains a lower-probability tail for the next 24 hours.