WIF: Dip-Buy Into the 0.41 Magnet (Pivot R3 + Fib Confluence)

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (buy dips). Expect test of 0.402–0.412 with possible extension to 0.418–0.431 if momentum accelerates. Pullbacks likely to 0.382–0.386 and 0.372–0.375 if risk-off.
• Rationale: Short-term structure has shifted to higher highs/higher lows from the 0.309–0.332 base; intraday momentum reclaimed key pivots (R1) with volume, and price is above short-term averages while still below medium-term means (room for mean reversion up toward 0.41).

Step-by-step analysis

1. Price structure and trend

• Higher timeframe (daily): From the September peak (~0.99), WIF has been in a persistent downtrend, accelerating after the Oct 10 capitulation (low ~0.205 intra) and a mid-Oct rebound into the 0.60s, then a steady slide through early November. A local capitulation/accumulation zone formed Nov 21–23 (lows 0.312–0.336). Since then: a stair-step up — Nov 24 close 0.3762, Nov 25 close 0.3662 (inside day), and today’s intraday push to 0.3918. This establishes a nascent sequence of higher lows (0.309 → 0.328 → 0.333 → 0.345 → 0.353 intraday) and higher highs (0.376 → 0.392 intraday).
• Intraday (hourly Nov 25–26): Price based around 0.354–0.365 through early UTC hours, broke above the prior pivot band (0.365–0.368) at 16:00–18:00 with expanding volume, printed a local high ~0.3913–0.3918, pulled back to ~0.384, then re-bid to ~0.390. Structure is bullish with shallow pullbacks, suggesting buyers in control into the close of the session.

2. Key levels (confluence of methods)

• Supports: 0.353–0.356 (today’s early base); 0.365–0.368 (prior resistance turned support); 0.372–0.375 (mid-channel pullback); 0.332–0.345 (daily demand); 0.309–0.312 (cycle low, must-hold).
• Resistances: 0.391–0.394 (R2 pivot/round-trip supply); 0.402–0.406 (early Nov breakdown shelf/neckline candidate); 0.411–0.412 (R3 pivot, daily Kijun/20SMA confluence); 0.418–0.420 (Nov 18 swing high); 0.431 (1.618 short-term fib ext.).
• Pivots (Classic, using Nov 25 OHLC H=0.3764, L=0.3446, C=0.3662): P=0.3624, R1=0.3802, R2=0.3942, R3=0.4119; S1=0.3484, S2=0.3306, S3=0.3166. Today reclaimed R1 and is pressing R2; typical behavior is either consolidate under R2 or overshoot to test R3.

3. Moving averages and mean reversion

• 10-period EMA (daily, est.): ~0.372 (price above) — bullish short-term.
• 20-day SMA (est.): ~0.411 (price below) — room to revert up into 0.41 area, which aligns with R3 and Ichimoku Kijun.
• 50-day SMA (est.): ~0.50–0.52 (well above) — the primary trend remains down; this is still a countertrend bounce within a larger bear channel.
• Interpretation: Short-term upside toward 0.41 is statistically favored; 0.41–0.42 should act as the first strong supply zone.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) (daily, est.): ~40–41 and rising. RSI exited near-oversold basing conditions and is curling up, consistent with a relief rally. Plenty of headroom before overbought thresholds.
• Stochastic (qualitative): Crossing up from low/mid zone, supportive of short-term upside.
• MACD (12/26/9, qualitative): Histogram likely turning less negative; signal-line convergence/early cross plausible within a session or two if price holds >0.38–0.39. That tends to support tests into the 0.40s.

5. Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR(14) (est.): ~0.030–0.040. From a 0.39 handle, a 1x ATR move targets 0.36–0.43. This brackets our scenario: pullbacks can revisit high 0.37s/low 0.38s; upside probes into low 0.41s are feasible within 24h.

6. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Mid-band (20SMA): ~0.411. Lower band likely ~0.31–0.33 given recent dispersion; upper band ~0.51. Price is below mid-band but rising from the lower half. Probabilistically favors mean reversion toward the mid-band (~0.41) before encountering stronger resistance.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing low (Nov 22): 0.3283 to current swing high 0.3918 (Δ=0.0635).
• Retracements already reclaimed: 38.2%=0.3525, 50%=0.3599, 61.8%=0.3673 — bullish that price is holding above these.
• Extensions from 0.3283: 1.272=0.4090; 1.618=0.4312. Near-term take-profit magnet: 0.409–0.412 (aligns with R3 and 20SMA/Kijun).

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Tenkan (~9): ~0.373; Kijun (~26): ~0.411. Price above Tenkan, below Kijun — classic mean-reversion long setup toward Kijun. Cloud likely overhead and declining, so expect first test rejection risk near Kijun.

9. Volume/flow

• Daily volumes elevated on selloffs; recent bounce volumes are steady-to-improving. Intraday, the expansion during the breakout hour (17:00–18:00 UTC) confirms initiative buying. Subsequent pullback volume contraction and re-bid into 21:00 is constructive for continuation.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Micro inverse H&S/higher-low base: Left shoulder ~0.332–0.345, head ~0.309–0.312, right shoulder ~0.344–0.353; neckline ~0.402–0.406. A clear hourly close >0.406–0.408 projects a measured move into ~0.43 (matching 1.618 fib ext.). For the next 24h, first objective is the neckline test and mid-band at ~0.41.

11. Regression/channel context

• Short-term rising channel from 0.328–0.332 lows projects a channel top in the 0.405–0.412 zone over the next session; channel support in the 0.372–0.376 zone. This frames long entries on dips with targets near 0.41.

12. Probabilistic path for next 24h

• Base case (≈60%): Grind higher into 0.402–0.412, initial hesitation at 0.394 then a push to tag 0.409–0.412 (R3/20SMA/Kijun/fib 1.272 cluster). Close near 0.402–0.408.
• Bull extension (≈25%): Clean break/acceptance above 0.412, squeeze into 0.418–0.431 (fib 1.618/Nov 18 swing). Would require continued volume expansion and broader risk-on tape.
• Bear alternative (≈15%): Failure under 0.394–0.402 leads to a retrace to 0.382–0.386; deeper flush could probe 0.372–0.375. Breakdown below 0.365 negates the immediate long bias and reopens 0.348–0.352.

13. Trade plan logic (24h horizon)

• Edge: Longs have positive expectancy on pullbacks while price holds above 0.365–0.368 (R1 flip). Targeting the 0.409–0.412 magnet offers favorable reward relative to the likely pullback depth.
• Entry: Prefer a buy-the-dip limit in 0.385–0.387 where intraday bids have appeared (near 20:00 pullback base/VWAP area), balancing fill probability and R:R.
• Exit: Scale/TP into 0.409–0.412 (fib 1.272/R3/20SMA cluster). If momentum is strong, runners can aim for 0.418–0.420, but the defined 24h TP sits just below confluence to improve fill odds.

Conclusion

• Short-term momentum has turned up from a multi-week base, with multiple tools (pivots, fibs, Ichimoku, mean reversion) converging around 0.409–0.412 as a high-probability magnet. Given the constructive intraday structure and supportive, rising momentum, the preferred stance for the next 24 hours is Buy on dip, targeting that confluence zone.