WIF coils under resistance: setting up a push to the 20‑day at $0.406

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish. Expect a range of roughly 0.381–0.407 with path-of-least-resistance to the upside. Base case: tag the 20-day SMA/middle Bollinger band area near 0.406–0.407 after clearing 0.393 breakout, with intraday dips likely supported around 0.385–0.388.
• Trade idea: Buy a minor pullback into 0.388–0.389 (VWAP/Kijun/1h demand) for a push toward 0.406–0.407 (SMA20 + pivot confluence). Invalidation on a clean 1h close below 0.381.

Market structure and trend

• Primary trend (daily): Still bearish from October’s breakdown; price remains well below longer MAs (50D/100D) and prior distribution zones. However, since Nov 21 low (0.3123), price has put in higher lows and higher highs: 0.3283 → 0.3348 → 0.3662 → 0.3866 → 0.3909. Short-term trend has flipped up.
• Intraday (1h): Steady grind higher today from 0.3757 to 0.3920 with shallow pullbacks. The latest hourly high is 0.3932; consolidation just under that level signals coiling below resistance.
• Pattern context: A small inverse head-and-shoulders formed on the daily around Nov 21–24 (left ~0.333, head ~0.312, right ~0.335) with a neckline ~0.366 broken on Nov 26. Measured move projects to ~0.420. For the next 24h, the first waypoint is the middle band/SMA20 at ~0.406–0.407.

Support and resistance map

• Immediate resistance: 0.3932 (today’s intraday high/mini shelf). Above, 0.401–0.402 (classic R1 pivot) then 0.406–0.407 (SMA20/middle Bollinger). Further: 0.416 (R2), 0.420 (measured move target).
• Immediate support: 0.388–0.389 (intraday VWAP/1h demand), 0.385 (1h swing), 0.381 (intraday shelf). Deeper: 0.377 (yesterday’s pivot P), 0.366 (neckline retest), 0.352–0.356 (prior balance).

Pivot points (classic, derived from Nov 26 H/L/C ≈ 0.3919/0.3525/0.3866)

• P ≈ 0.3770, R1 ≈ 0.4015, R2 ≈ 0.4164, S1 ≈ 0.3621, S2 ≈ 0.3376. Current price sits between P and R1 and is advancing toward R1, consistent with a bullish session framework.

Moving averages

• SMA5 ≈ 0.371 (price > SMA5): near-term momentum positive.
• SMA10 ≈ 0.371 (price > SMA10): short-term breadth improving.
• SMA20 ≈ 0.4068 (price < SMA20): approaching a logical mean-reversion target/resistance for the next leg.
• 50D/100D (not computed precisely) remain well above price, preserving the broader downtrend overhead supply. This caps the 24–72h upside to the 0.41–0.43 area without fresh catalysts.

Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI: Rising out of prior oversold; estimated mid-40s, leaving room to reach the neutral band (~50) on a push into 0.406–0.407.
• 1h RSI: Around 58–62 on the latest push; modestly over the midline, which favors shallow dips getting bought. No strong bearish divergence yet; momentum is constructive into 0.401–0.407.
• MACD (daily): Histogram contracting toward zero with lines curling up; early-cycle buy momentum consistent with the inverse H&S break. A zero-line cross likely if price tags the SMA20.
• Stochastics (1h): Near upper band but not embedded; allows brief dip buys into 0.388–0.389 without breaking structure.

Volatility/mean reversion

• ATR14 (daily) estimated around 0.038–0.040. A move from 0.389 to 0.406 is ~0.017–0.018 (≈0.45 ATR) and well within a normal 24h range. R2 at 0.416 is ~0.027 from 0.389 (~0.7 ATR), possible but would require a stronger impulse.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Mid = SMA20 ≈ 0.4068; lower ≈ 0.337; upper ≈ 0.477 (est.). Price is traveling from lower band up toward the mid-band. Expect supply to show at the mid-band on first touch.
• Keltner (est.): Price now testing upper Keltner on 1h; expansion favors continuation after minor consolidation.

Volume/flow

• OBV (qualitative): Stabilized and ticking higher since the 0.312 low; confirms accumulation during the short-term uptrend.
• Today’s intraday volumes are moderate while price climbs—no distribution spike at 0.392–0.393 yet, supporting the case for a breakout attempt.

Ichimoku (1h and daily context)

• 1h: Price above Tenkan and Kijun; Kijun roughly near 0.385–0.386. Cloud thin overhead around 0.397–0.402; a decisive break through 0.393 often leads to a swift test of the cloud top near ~0.401–0.402.
• Daily: Price below cloud; Tenkan rising toward Kijun; a mean reversion toward Kijun/middle band (~0.406–0.41) fits the 24h thesis.

Fibonacci levels

• Swing low (0.312) to today’s high (~0.393): Extensions point to 1.272/1.414 near 0.404/0.410 as near-term magnets if 0.393 breaks.
• Larger swing Oct high (~0.80) to Nov low (~0.312): 23.6% ≈ 0.433—likely too ambitious for 24h but relevant as a medium-term upside cap.

Elliott wave micro framing (exploratory)

• Wave 1 up: 0.312 → 0.366; Wave 2: 0.366 → 0.345; Wave 3: 0.345 → 0.392; Wave 4: intraday drift 0.392 → 0.386; Wave 5: projected 0.404–0.410 zone. This aligns with pivot R1 and SMA20 confluence.

Stat/microstructure cues

• VWAP (today): ~0.386–0.388; price holding above VWAP most of the session, indicating buyers in control. A retest of VWAP is a logical entry with defined risk.
• Liquidity pockets: Minor liquidity gap between 0.393 and 0.401; clearing 0.393 can accelerate to R1 swiftly.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Bullish base case (≈60–65%): Break 0.393 → fast test of 0.401–0.402 (R1) → tag 0.406–0.407 (SMA20/middle band). Close near 0.404–0.407.
• Neutral/dip case (≈20–25%): Fade to 0.388–0.385 (VWAP/Kijun), base and reattempt breakout late; closes 0.395–0.401.
• Bearish risk case (≈10–15%): Lose 0.381 intraday, revisit 0.377 pivot; only then stronger bullish thesis pauses. Probability lower given current structure.

Risk management and invalidation

• Invalidation for long: 1h close below 0.381 undermines the rising channel and opens 0.377/0.366.
• Asymmetric entry: Buying 0.388–0.389 offers proximity to 0.381/0.385 supports for tight risk while targeting the SMA20.

Bottom line

• The short-term uptrend off 0.312 remains intact; momentum and mean reversion favor a continuation toward the daily middle band at ~0.406–0.407. With price coiling under 0.393 and supported by VWAP/Kijun near 0.388–0.389, a pullback buy is attractive. Expect the move to stall near the SMA20 on first test, making 0.406–0.407 an efficient 24h target.