WIF at the Edge: Fade the Pivot, Target the Liquidity Sweep to 0.325

Executive snapshot

• Instrument: WIF (dogwifhat)
• Current price: 0.33002
• Session context (12/22 intraday): High 0.34731, low 0.32758, last 0.33002, price trading below intraday VWAP and prior-day pivot; momentum weak with modest intraday bid at 20:00–21:00 unable to reclaim 0.334–0.336.
• Broader context: Persistent multi-week downtrend from ~0.80 (late Sep) to ~0.33 now, punctuated by sharp drawdowns (10/10, 11/03) and lower-highs sequence through December. Structure remains bearish below 0.35–0.36.

Multi-timeframe trend read

• Daily trend: Clear lower-highs/lower-lows since early October. December rally attempts stalled around 0.40–0.45 (12/02–12/11), then rolled over with successive lower highs: 0.4015 (12/13), 0.3730 (12/15), 0.3630–0.3572 (12/19–12/20), 0.3498 (12/21). Current price near the lower end of the recent range.
• 5D/10D moving averages (approximations from closes):
  • 5D SMA ≈ 0.3405; price ~3.1% below.
  • 10D SMA ≈ 0.3645; price ~9.4% below.
  • 20D SMA estimated ≈ 0.38; price well below. Slope negative across all three MAs → trend confirmation bearish.
• Hourly structure (12/22): Descending intraday channel; a.m. high 0.347 → steady lower highs; afternoon sweep to 0.3276; minor bounce failing below pivot/ VWAP.

Support/resistance map and pivots

• Key historic levels from the dataset:
  • Major supply: 0.40–0.45 (Dec top zone); 0.36–0.38 (mid-Dec congestion); 0.347–0.350 (hourly supply from 12/20–12/22); 0.340–0.342 (intraday pivot cluster today).
  • Immediate support: 0.328–0.329 (today’s and 12/18 closing area), then 0.325 (12/18–12/22 demand shelf), and deeper 0.312 (11/21 swing low) if 0.325 breaks.
• Floor Trader Pivots using 12/21 (H 0.34976, L 0.33164, C 0.34051):
  • Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.34064
  • R1 ≈ 0.34964, R2 ≈ 0.35876
  • S1 ≈ 0.33152, S2 ≈ 0.32252 Price traded below S1 intraday and is struggling to reclaim P; S2 at ~0.3225 aligns with the next high-probability downside magnet on a breakdown.

Momentum suite

• RSI (daily, 14-period approximate): Low-to-mid 30s to ~40 given proximity to lower bands and persistent closes below short MAs; this is weak but not deeply oversold—room for further downside before capitulation.
• RSI (hourly): Likely near/just below 30 after the 0.347 → 0.328 slide with slight bullish divergence potential (marginally lower price low at 20:00 vs. earlier with flatter momentum), which can fuel a countertrend bounce toward 0.338–0.342—still within a bearish regime.
• MACD (daily): Negative and below signal, histogram broadly negative—consistent with continuation. No convincing bullish cross evident from price behavior.
• MACD (hourly): Histogram loss-of-downside-momentum into the U.S. afternoon suggests a modest mean-reversion attempt, but signal remains below zero; rallies should be faded into resistance.

Volatility and bands

• ATR (daily, visual estimate of recent ranges): ~0.015–0.02 (4–6% of price). Expect typical 24h amplitude of 4–7% barring news.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2, estimates): Mid ≈ 0.38, lower ≈ 0.31–0.33. Price hovers near the lower band zone—not an outright band break, implying a tendency toward mean reversion toward 0.338–0.345 is possible, but within a bearish volatility envelope.
• Bollinger Bands (hourly): Price repeatedly tagging/hovering near the lower band around 0.328–0.331; a drift back to mid-band/VWAP ~0.338–0.340 is plausible before sellers reassert.

Volume and order flow

• Daily volume trend: Elevated during selloffs (10/10, 11/03), diminishing on bounces in December—distributional tone. Recent days show waning volume on upticks, suggesting sellers reload on strength.
• Intraday 12/22: Noticeable volume on the 20:00 hour slide to new session lows. Rebounds on lighter volume, consistent with weak hands covering rather than strong accumulation.
• OBV (qualitative): Rolling over since mid-December; no clear accumulation footprint near 0.33 yet.
• VWAP (today): Price action mostly below VWAP; failed reclaim attempts → intraday sellers in control.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• From 12/19 swing high (~0.363) to today’s low (~0.3276):
  • 38.2% retrace ≈ 0.3400
  • 50% ≈ 0.3453
  • 61.8% ≈ 0.3506 This neatly aligns with intraday supply at 0.340–0.342 and overhead band 0.347–0.351. Rally attempts into 0.340–0.345 should attract sellers.
• From the December pullback structure (0.4498 high on 12/09 down to 0.329–0.331 trough zone): failure to sustain above 0.40 marked a bearish 61.8% retracement rejection of the larger downswing; the current leg looks like a continuation wave toward prior extremes near 0.322–0.312 if 0.328/0.325 gives way.

Ichimoku (qualitative, daily and hourly)

• Price below cloud; conversion line < base line; lagging span below price/cloud → full bearish stack. On hourly, the cloud above 0.34–0.35 likely acts as dynamic resistance.

Market structure and patterns

• Descending channel since mid-December remains intact. Today’s test of the channel’s lower bound (0.327–0.329) produced only a labored bounce—typical bearish continuation behavior.
• Double-bottom check: The 12/18 close 0.32936 vs today’s low 0.3276 produces a minor lower low, not a clean double bottom. Without a strong reclaim of 0.342–0.345 with volume, pattern lacks confirmation.
• Bear flags: Multiple intraday bear-flag continuations resolved lower today. Any short-term flag toward 0.338–0.341 likely offers a low-risk fade.

Statistical bias next 24 hours (subjective probabilities)

• Range-limited chop 0.326–0.342: 40%
• Bearish continuation with a S2 probe 0.322–0.325: 35%
• Squeeze above 0.345 toward 0.349–0.351 (failed breakdown): 25% Given the skew and confluence of resistances around 0.340–0.345, the path of least resistance remains lower unless price can reclaim and hold above the daily pivot (~0.3406) and intraday VWAP with expanding volume.

Trade plan rationale

• Bias: Short-term bearish continuation within a broader downtrend; prefer selling strength into confluence zones.
• Optimal entry zone (short): 0.340–0.3415
  • Confluences: Daily pivot P≈0.3406, 38.2% retrace of the latest leg, hourly mid-band/VWAP region, repeated intraday seller defense.
• Profit objective (24h feasible): 0.324–0.326
  • Confluences: Below S1 (~0.3315), ahead of S2 (~0.3225), near the 0.325 demand shelf where counter-bids appeared on prior sessions; captures a typical ATR-sized move.
• Risk frame (for context): A prudent protective stop for the short sits above 0.346–0.348 (above 50% retrace and local supply). From an entry ~0.3406, risk ~1.6–2.2% vs. reward ~4.5–5.0% to 0.324–0.325 → R:R ≈ 2.2–3.0.

Alternate tactical path (if not filled or if market fails to bounce)

• If price fails to reach entry and breaks 0.327 cleanly with rising volume, expect momentum extension to 0.322–0.323 quickly; late chases are riskier—prefer waiting for a minor retest bounce toward 0.333–0.336 to re-engage short with tighter risk.
• If price forcefully reclaims and holds above 0.345 with volume expansion, bearish thesis invalidates tactically; that opens a squeeze path toward 0.349–0.351 (R1/61.8% area) where the next decision point emerges.

Summary call

• The multi-timeframe setup favors fading rallies into 0.340–0.345, targeting a downside liquidity sweep toward 0.325 (and possibly 0.322). Expect a modest bounce attempt early in the next session toward the daily pivot, then renewed selling pressure.

Actionable levels

• Short entry (limit): 0.3406 (around daily pivot)
• Take profit: 0.3252 (just above the 0.325 shelf; capture before deeper bids)
• Contextual stop (not an output field, for risk planning): 0.3465–0.3480

Forecast next 24h

• Baseline path: Intraday bounce to 0.338–0.342 fails → trend-resume leg toward 0.326–0.325; extension risk to 0.322 if liquidity thin.
• Invalidations: Sustained acceptance >0.345 with volume.