WIF at Support After Repeated 0.39 Rejections: Favor a Sell-the-Bounce Setup Into 0.375–0.377

Market context (Daily + Intraday)

Current price: $0.3676

1) Higher-timeframe trend (Daily candles)

• Primary trend (since mid-Oct): bearish / distribution. Price fell from the $0.58–0.60 area (Oct) to the $0.26–0.28 lows (Dec 30–Jan 1), establishing a clear sequence of lower highs/lower lows.
• Recent counter-trend rally: Jan 1–Jan 6 produced a sharp rebound (0.2697 → intraday highs near 0.50 on Jan 6), but it failed to hold and rolled over quickly (Jan 7 close ~0.3895).
• Now: price is back near the mid-range of the post-rally retrace, suggesting the Jan 4–6 impulse was more of a squeeze/rally than a sustainable trend reversal.

2) Key support/resistance map (structure)

Using recent daily swing points:

• Immediate support: $0.3670–0.3680 (today’s intraday lows area; also close-to-close “pivot” zone).
• Deeper support: $0.360–0.362 (multiple daily interactions in Dec; also near the breakdown/acceptance zone).
• Major support (swing): $0.345–0.350 (Dec 20–22 region).
• Immediate resistance: $0.375–0.377 (multiple hourly closes; intraday reclaim attempts).
• Higher resistance: $0.386–0.390 (intraday highs earlier today; also aligns with recent daily consolidation).
• Major resistance: $0.404–0.410 (daily supply from Jan 4–5 area).

Conclusion: Price is sitting on support, but overhead resistance is layered tightly from $0.375 up to $0.390, making upside progress difficult without fresh demand.

3) Momentum & moving-average logic (inference from closes)

Even without exact MA calculations, the daily sequence since Jan 6 shows:

• Lower highs: 0.4215 (Jan 6 close) → 0.3895 → 0.3800 → 0.3871 (minor) → 0.3789 → 0.3757 → 0.3676.
• This typically implies price is trading below short-term averages (e.g., 5–10 day) and likely below/near the 20-day given the prior decline.

Momentum bias: bearish-to-neutral; bounces are being sold.

4) Candlestick / price-action read (Hourly)

From the hourly series (Jan 11 22:00 → Jan 12 21:57):

• Early session push: price advanced to ~0.3901 (03:00) after rising from ~0.374–0.376.
• Then a clear sell-off impulse occurred 06:00–08:00: 0.3839 → 0.3741 → 0.3700 → 0.3702.
• Midday rebound attempt: 14:00–16:00 reclaimed 0.377–0.381, but it failed again, followed by a renewed drop into 0.3676 by 21:00.

Interpretation: repeated attempts to reclaim 0.38+ are being absorbed by sellers; late-day weakness and closing near session lows suggests bearish control into the next session.

5) Volume & participation

• Daily volume today (partial day shown): ~128.6M, not tiny—selling into the close happened with meaningful activity.
• Intraday: highest burst is around the sharp drop window (07:00 had very large hourly volume vs surrounding hours), consistent with distribution / liquidation rather than organic accumulation.

6) Volatility / range behavior

• Today’s intraday high/low (daily): High ~0.3897 / Low ~0.3671 → ~6.1% range.
• That’s enough volatility for mean-reversion bounces, but the pattern is “spike up → fade → lower close,” which favors selling rallies unless support shows strong reversal signals.

7) Fibonacci / retracement logic (swing-based)

Using the recent impulse low-to-high (approx Jan 1 low ~0.2697 to Jan 6 high ~0.5005):

• 50% retrace ≈ 0.385
• 61.8% retrace ≈ 0.357

Price at 0.3676 is between 50% and 61.8%, leaning closer to the deeper retracement zone. Typically:

• Losing the 50% area (≈0.385) and accepting below it often shifts bias toward testing 0.357.

8) 24-hour outlook (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability):

• Continuation drift lower / support test: price likely revisits 0.360–0.362, with risk of a wick toward 0.357–0.358 if the market stays risk-off.

Alternative case (lower probability):

• Dead-cat bounce / mean reversion: if 0.367 holds firmly, a bounce back toward 0.375–0.380 can occur; however, given repeated rejections, that zone is likely to act as sellable resistance.

9) Trade thesis

Given (a) repeated intraday failures above 0.38–0.39, (b) bearish close near lows, (c) retracement structure pointing toward 0.357–0.362, the edge is:

• Sell (short) on a bounce into resistance, not at the absolute lows.

If price doesn’t bounce and breaks down directly, shorting after breakdown confirmation is possible, but the cleaner R/R from the provided data is to sell a retest of 0.375–0.377.

Final call

Bias for next 24h: mildly bearish (range-to-down).