WIF Breaks Down From 0.33 Range: Sell-the-Retest Setup Targets 0.306

Multi-timeframe technical read (WIF)

Current price: $0.3177 (as of 2026-01-25 21:57 UTC)

1) Market structure & trend (Daily)

• Primary swing: From the early-January spike high zone ($0.50 area on 2026-01-06 high $0.5005) price has been making lower highs and lower lows into late January.
• Recent daily path:
  • 2026-01-13: rally to $0.4187 close (local rebound)
  • 2026-01-18 to 2026-01-20: dump into $0.352 → $0.3296
  • 2026-01-21 to 2026-01-24: weak bounce and stall around $0.334
  • 2026-01-25: decisive sell candle (intraday low ~$0.3109; close $0.3177)
• Conclusion: Daily structure remains bearish / distribution-to-downtrend. The bounce attempts into ~0.33–0.34 are being sold.

2) Key support/resistance (Price action levels)

Immediate support zones

• S1: $0.311–0.314 (today’s hourly breakdown base + intraday low 0.3109; also psychological ~0.31)
• S2: $0.305–0.308 (late Dec swing area; 2025-12-25 close 0.3075)
• S3: $0.276–0.289 (late Dec capitulation zone; 2025-12-30 close 0.2771)

Overhead resistance zones

• R1: $0.328–0.334 (broken intraday support + last few days’ balance area)
• R2: $0.339–0.345 (multiple daily opens/closes and prior reaction highs)
• R3: $0.352–0.356 (Jan 18/19 region; stronger supply if retested)

Implication: Price is currently below the 0.328–0.334 “value” area. That level is now first resistance on any rebound.

3) Intraday (Hourly) momentum & breakdown anatomy

• Hours 16:00–19:00 show impulsive selling:
  • ~16:00: sharp drop from ~0.3287 to ~0.3227 with very high volume (6.67M)
  • ~18:00: continuation to ~0.3180 with high volume (6.30M)
  • ~19:00: flush to 0.31096 with high volume (6.83M)
• After the flush, price dead-cat bounced to ~0.3144 then ~0.3177, but did not reclaim 0.328+.

Reading: This is typical of a breakdown + weak rebound (sellers active on rebounds; buyers only absorbing at lower support).

4) Volatility & range (Practical ATR-like assessment)

• Today’s daily range: High ~0.3344 / Low ~0.3109 ≈ 7.5% range.
• In a meme coin, that’s enough to expect continued whipsaw, but directionally the impulse is down unless price reclaims 0.328–0.334.

5) Moving average logic (inference from price history)

• Over the last ~3–4 weeks price has transitioned from the 0.38–0.42 region down into 0.33–0.31.
• This strongly suggests common trend MAs (20D/50D) are above price and likely sloping down → trend filter bearish.

6) Volume/participation (Daily + Hourly)

• Daily volume has been substantial during down legs historically (notably early Jan). Today’s move also shows heavy hourly participation during the selloff.
• Interpretation: Sellers were motivated (distribution) and the rebound volume is not obviously stronger than sell volume → no clear accumulation signal.

7) Pattern recognition

• Bear flag / breakdown from balance: The multi-day sideways action around ~0.333 (Jan 21–24) resolved down on Jan 25.
• Break-and-retest risk: Commonly, after a breakdown, price retests the broken range underside (0.328–0.334) then resumes down.

8) Scenario map for next 24 hours (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability): bearish continuation / sell-the-rip

• Price attempts to mean-revert toward 0.323–0.332, gets rejected, then drifts back to 0.311–0.305.

Alternative (lower probability): relief rally

• If price reclaims and holds above 0.334, shorts cover and price can squeeze to 0.345–0.352.
• Given today’s breakdown structure, this requires strong follow-through buying that is not yet visible.

9) 24-hour directional call

• With price below the prior balance area and breakdown volumes elevated, the path of least resistance remains down/sideways, with 0.311–0.314 likely to be retested.

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Trade plan (direction + optimal entry)

Decision: Sell (Short)

Rationale: Trend is bearish (lower highs), breakdown below 0.328–0.334 support, rebound looks corrective.

Optimal open (entry)

• Preferred short entry (sell the retest): $0.3310
  • This targets the underside of the broken range (0.328–0.334) where sellers are likely to defend.
  • If price never bounces that high, the trade is skipped (avoid chasing into support).

Take-profit (close)

• Close / TP: $0.3060
  • Just above the next stronger support band (0.305–0.308) to improve fill probability.

(Risk management note, not requested but implicit: invalidation is a sustained reclaim above ~0.334–0.339; this is where the breakdown thesis weakens.)