dogwifhat Price Analysis Powered by AI

WIF at the Edge: Failed Bounce After Capitulation Signals Another Low Test

Current price: $0.2462
Context: Strong multi-month downtrend from the November highs (~$0.50) into late January/early February.
Latest daily candle (2026-02-01): O $0.2541 / H $0.2624 / L $0.2445 / C $0.2462 → bearish close near the lows.
Notable prior daily candle (2026-01-31): O $0.2878 / H $0.2880 / L $0.2372 / C $0.2541 → large sell-off day (capitulation-like range), followed by weak follow-through.

From 2026-01-06 (spike high near $0.50) the sequence is broadly lower highs / lower lows.
Key breakdown legs:
- 01-13 close ~0.4187 → 01-20 close ~0.3296 (major impulse down)
- 01-24–01-27 consolidation ~0.334 → breakdown to 01-31 low ~0.237
Current price ($0.246) is only slightly above the fresh swing low zone (0.237–0.244), meaning the market is still trading in the “danger zone” where dead-cat bounces often fail.

After an early push toward $0.2625 (10:00), price rolled over and printed a sequence of lower intraday highs into the close, ending near $0.246.
This is consistent with distribution on rallies rather than accumulation.

Trend conclusion: Bias remains bearish until price reclaims and holds above nearby resistance (see levels).

S1: $0.244–0.246 (today’s low region and current price area; also intraday pivot)
S2: $0.237–0.240 (01-31 capitulation low area)
S3: ~$0.230 (round-number / psychological + likely stop-magnet below capitulation low)

R1: $0.254–0.255 (today’s open + repeated hourly area; common retest zone)
R2: $0.259–0.262 (intraday swing high zone; also where sellers showed up)
R3: $0.270–0.277 (late-Dec / early-Jan breakdown memory; major overhead supply)

Level conclusion: Best risk/reward for bears is typically selling a retest into $0.254–0.258 with invalidation above ~$0.262.

01-31: Large bearish range (H→L) suggests forced liquidation / stop run.
02-01: Despite an attempt to bounce (to ~$0.262), the day closed weak near support → bounce rejected.
This two-day combination often behaves like:
- Capitulation day (big down)
- Relief rally attempt
- Failure / rollover

Pattern inference: bear flag / weak base behavior rather than a confirmed reversal.

Exact RSI can’t be computed here precisely without indicator smoothing, but price behavior implies:

Sustained decline from ~0.42 to ~0.25 in ~2–3 weeks suggests momentum has been negative for an extended period.
Post-capitulation bounces that fail quickly typically indicate RSI relief that doesn’t break trend (i.e., RSI rises but stays in bearish regime).

Momentum conclusion: bearish-to-neutral, not reversal-confirming.

Daily ranges expanded sharply on 01-31 (0.288 → 0.237; very large).
02-01 still relatively wide (0.262 → 0.244).
Elevated volatility increases the probability of support breaks and stop sweeps even if price later rebounds.

Volatility conclusion: Expect large intraday swings; price can wick below 0.244/0.237 before any sustained bounce.

01-31 volume: ~196.8M (high)
02-01 volume: ~127.8M (still heavy)
Heavy volume into a down move + failure to reclaim key levels suggests:
- Sellers remain active
- Dip-buying exists but lacks dominance

Volume conclusion: distribution / supply overhead remains a problem; rallies likely sold.

Given structure + rejection + volatility:

Bounce toward $0.254–0.258 (retest zone) possible.
But unless price accepts above $0.262 and holds, that bounce is likely a sellable rally.

24h directional bias: Down / range-to-down, with a likely lower low test.

Trend is down; today’s rally attempt failed.
Optimal short entries are typically on retests of broken support turned resistance.
The cleanest nearby retest zone is $0.254–0.258, with invalidation above $0.262–0.263.

Bias: Bearish
Expectation (next 24h): Retest $0.244 then $0.237–0.240; a bounce is possible but likely capped below $0.262.