Worldcoin (WLD) Technical Analysis — 2025-05-30

1. Trend Analysis

Higher Timeframe Trend (Daily)

Examining the daily candles from March to late May, we observe:

• March to Mid-April: Prolonged downtrend from $1.21 down to $0.63, marked by lower lows and lower highs. Big volume spikes on breakdown days confirm bearish momentum.
• Late April: Reversal at $0.61–0.65 with a sharp rally. A strong impulse move up through $1.05–$1.25, culminating in a peak at $1.64 (May 22).
• Post-Rally Phase: Following the $1.64 top, a multi-day retracement occurs. Price falls through $1.36, $1.30, $1.21 (key support-turned-resistance zones).

Mid-Term (Past 7 Days)

• After the $1.64 high, lower highs are evident ($1.51, $1.42, $1.36, $1.32). The close today ($1.2065) represents a near 50% retracement from the local top. Volume on down days is higher than up days, suggesting distribution.

2. Support & Resistance Levels

• Major Resistance: $1.32, $1.36, $1.42
• Minor Resistance: $1.22, $1.21 (former support)
• Immediate Support: $1.18 (May 30 low), $1.14 (local shelf), $1.09
• Structural Support: $1.02–$1.09 (congestion, previous breakout), psychological round number at $1.00

3. Candlestick & Volume Analysis

Looking at the last 24h (hourly data):

• Today: Each rally is met by supply near $1.22; multiple hourly candles have long upper wicks pressing against that level before rejecting.
• The $1.18–1.20 zone sees demand, but each bounce weakens.
• Volume: There are volume surges as prices trade down to $1.18, but follow-through is lacking. No confirmation of absorption by strong buyers yet.

4. Moving Averages

• 20-Period MA (Daily): ~ $1.23, price is below
• 50-Period MA: Flat to declining, near $1.20–$1.22.
• Short-Term MAs (1h): Rolling over sharply, with the 20MA acting as dynamic resistance near $1.21.
• Conclusion: Short and medium-term momentum is bearish; price under key moving averages.

5. Momentum Oscillators

• RSI (Daily, approximation): Near 40–45. Mildly oversold but not extreme; more room to decline before reversal levels.
• MACD: Bearish cross, still diverging, no crossover or flattening yet.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Hourly and 4h reading <40, indicating building bearish pressure.

6. Chart Patterns and Structure

• Descending Channel: The post-peak consolidation carves out a descending channel; $1.21–$1.22 is the upper boundary. Lower boundary projects towards $1.13–$1.16.
• No classical bullish reversal (double bottom, inverted head/shoulders) visible.
• Failed Retest: Recent attempts to reclaim $1.22–$1.23 have failed, confirming it as resistance.

7. Volatility Insights

• ATR (Daily): Still high—post-surge contraction, but day-range is $0.14–0.22, suggesting risk persists.
• Previous micro structure: Rejection wicks at resistance, no resting bids stepping up above $1.18.

8. Orderflow & Sentiment Analysis

• Recent Price Action: Quick drive down from $1.32, persistent selling.
• Volume Profile: High volume node around $1.13–$1.22; price is threatening to fall below this zone. If it breaks, thin liquidity to $1.09 then $1.01.

9. Fibonacci Retracement

• Bearish retracement from $1.64 to $1.18: 0.618 fib is $1.25, 0.5 is $1.41—price is below both, confirming weak bullish retracement.
• Lower fib targets: 0.786 ($1.08) is next mathematical area for absorption.

10. Risk/Reward & Probabilistic Forecast

• Short term: Bears have control. No sign of reversal. Immediate trend is down.
• 24h Price Target: If $1.18 breaks decisively, we likely test $1.14, possibly wick to $1.10–$1.13.
• Upside Risk: Moves back to $1.21–$1.23 likely to be sold, especially with macro structure and oscillators aligned bearishly.

11. Confluence

• All major indicators—price action, moving averages, oscillators, and volume—suggest a continuation of the downtrend.
• Only if strong volume reclaims $1.22+ does the bias flip cautiously bullish.

Bearish trading edge is clear.

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Recommendation

Position: "Sell" (Short Position)

• Rationale: No visible reversal, breakdowns at support, momentum favors shorts. All technical criteria converge for a controlled short.

Open Price:

• Optimal entry: $1.20–$1.21 (Current price is $1.2065; enter as close to $1.21 as possible to minimize risk from late fills.)

Close Price (Take Profit Target):

• Target: $1.13 (Next high-volume node and fib confluence. Also ahead of $1.10, to front-run liquidity and lock in profit before strong bids appear.)

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Final Notes

• Stop Loss for prudent risk management: $1.228 (above local resistance and hourly 20MA)
• Position Sizing: Moderate, as volatility remains high.
• Outlook reassessment: If $1.22 is reclaimed on volume, exit short and reassess. For now, all major technicals support continuation lower.

Summary: Downtrend remains dominant for Worldcoin (WLD). Short structure and momentum favor moves to $1.13. Stay vigilant, as sharp reversals are always possible after aggressive selloffs, but no reversal is yet confirmed by current charts.