Worldcoin (WLD): Looming Breakdown – Why $1.09 Could Be the Next Stop

Exhaustive Technical Analysis of Worldcoin (WLD)

1. Long-Term Daily Trend Analysis

• Trend Structure: From mid-March to early April 2025, WLD showed considerable volatility with sharp downtrends (peak $0.95 → low $0.63). However, from late April 2025, a clear shift occurs as price recovers from sub-$0.70 levels to a significant rally in late May ($1.13 → $1.64 in fewer than two weeks), followed by strong volatility and retracements.
• Support and Resistance:
  • Major support established near $1.12–$1.14 after multiple bounces mid-May and the recent close around $1.1459.
  • Recent resistance in the $1.35–$1.42 range, with a failed breakthrough in late May followed by a retrace.
  • Critical Overhead Resistance at ~$1.25–$1.35 (multiple failed retests).
• EMA/SMA Structure: 50-period moving average is likely around $1.19 (recent closing action), while the 200-period would lag closer to the $1.12–$1.13 area. The price is currently at/just below the shorter-term average, suggesting indecision.

2. Short-Term (Hourly) Structure and Momentum

• Recent Action: The past 24 hours saw highs at $1.21 and a quick drop towards $1.137. The close at $1.146 is slightly above the local lows. This creates a descending triangle pattern, often a bearish continuation signal.
• Intraday Volatility: High—intraday ranges are wide ($1.15–$1.20, then $1.14–$1.18, now $1.14), and large candle bodies reveal volatility spikes. This signals potential for further sharp moves.
• Volume Analysis: Volume was massive during the May rally ($1.52B on 5/22), then dropped as the uptrend exhausted. Present volumes, although lower, show relative intensification during sell-offs (late May, early June), suggesting distribution by large players.

3. Pattern Recognition & Candlestick Analysis

• Descending Triangle: From the last week, price has put in lower highs (around $1.21, $1.18, $1.16) while horizontal support held near $1.14. This is a common bearish pattern.
• Bearish Engulfing & Pin Bars: Recent candles show upper wicks and close near lows, reinforcing selling pressure in the $1.15–$1.17 zone.
• No Strong Bullish Reversals: There are no hammer candles, bullish engulfings, or strong reversal clusters at the local support.

4. Oscillator Analysis

• RSI: Based on price structure, RSI would be drifting towards 35–40 (mildly oversold), but has not hit panic levels (<30). No clear bullish divergence on recent lows; RSI most likely confirms momentum to the downside.
• MACD: MACD lines (extrapolated from the price) have rolled over, with histogram likely negative, signaling continuing bearish pressure.

5. Fibonacci Retracement Analysis

• Major rally from $0.62 (early April) to $1.64 (late May). Current level ($1.1459) is near the 61.8% retracement of that move (~$1.13), a classic level for temporary bounces.
• Price rejected at the 23.6% retracement ($1.41), then failed at the 38.2% ($1.29), and now is at risk of slicing through this Fibo support. If $1.13 breaks, next target is $1.05–$1.08 (78.6% retracement), then $0.95.

6. Volume Profile/Order Book Analysis

• High volume nodes at $1.11–$1.13 (prior accumulation and pivotal support).
• Lack of strong support below $1.13, with next major bid clusters only evident at $1.05 and below.

7. Volatility & Momentum Indicators

• ATR (extrapolated): High, consistent with sharp hourly/daily swings. Implies stops must be wide, and short-term traders can exploit the momentum moves.
• Momentum: Steadily declining since the May blow-off top, with no clear evidence of new large buyers stepping in.

8. Sentiment & Market Context

• Extreme volatility, failed rallies, and several failed attempts to break previous highs suggest a sentiment shift from euphoria to caution/fear.
• Recent price action is characterized by lower highs and lower lows—a classic downtrend behavior after an exhaustion move.
• Macro context (not in data): If Bitcoin/Ethereum also showing weakness, altcoins like WLD often underperform.

9. Conclusion: 24-hour Price Prediction and Action Plan

• The balance of evidence supports a near-term continuation of the downtrend. The pattern of distribution, breakdown from key support, and absence of reversal patterns indicate more downside risk.
• The most probable outcome: a breakdown below $1.14 support, move towards $1.11–$1.08 in the coming 24 hours. A temporary minor bounce is possible at fib support ($1.13), but the downside momentum outweighs the reversal risk.
• If new buyers emerge, the price may temporarily retest $1.16–$1.17, but this is likely to invite further selling.

Final Decision: SELL (Short Position)

• Optimal Entry: With close at $1.1459 and overhead resistance at $1.156–$1.162, a limit short order around $1.15 would ensure optimal risk-to-reward, considering a possible minor bounce.
• Profit Target: Major support and high volume at ~$1.08. To be prudent and capture most of the move while avoiding a hard reversal bounce, set take-profit at $1.09.

RISK MANAGEMENT

• Stop-loss: Ideally just above last lower high, i.e., $1.17–$1.18. This ensures negative sentiment isn't caught in a sharp reversal. Risk/reward on this setup is favorable.

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Summary Table

• Action: SELL (Short Position)
• Open Price: $1.15
• Take Profit: $1.09
• Stop-Loss: $1.17 (not asked to specify, but advised)

If the downtrend as indicated persists, this short trade setup optimizes entry at resistance with a reasonable target at next major support, catching the continuation with manageable risk.

NOTE: If a surprise bullish engulfing appears at $1.14, re-evaluate as a stop-run and exit short.