Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for Worldcoin (WLD)

1. Trend Identification

Long-Term Context (3 months)

• The chart shows that from March to late April, WLD hovered in a $0.8 - $1.0 range, experiencing sharp sell-offs and rebounds.
• May marked a pronounced uptrend, peaking at $1.64 (May 22) after which a steep correction ensued, with price falling back toward $1.05 - $1.10.
• With the current price at $1.069, WLD is now at the lower bound of its 1-month range, and sitting at 1-month support.
• Volume in the past 10 days: noticeable spikes during major price moves (both rallies and dumps). Recent sessions show declining volume, suggesting reduced liquidation pressure.

Short-Term Context (Hourly Data for June 6th)

• On June 6th, volatility was relatively muted (range roughly $1.04 – $1.09). The price failed to break $1.09 and returned to consolidation around $1.07–$1.08.
• Intra-day lower highs and higher lows were observed, with no decisive move, indicating a possible accumulation phase.

2. Support and Resistance

Daily Levels:

• Immediate support: $1.03–$1.05 (tested on June 5 and 6);
• Major support: $1.00, psychological round level, also sighted on May 30th;
• Immediate resistance: $1.09–$1.10 (failed breakouts intra-day);
• Major resistance: $1.13 (June 4 high), then $1.18 (June 2 high).

3. Chart Patterns

• The daily chart from mid-May to early June displays a classic descending channel following the blow-off top towards $1.64.
• In the June 4-6 window, there's a mild double bottom around $1.03–$1.04, signaling decreasing selling momentum.

4. Moving Averages Analysis

• 20-period SMA (approx.): Estimated at $1.15 — Price is well below this, signaling a downtrend or correction phase.
• 50-period SMA: Estimated near $1.18 — Also above the price; long-term downtrend confirmed.

However, the distance between price and these averages suggests potential for mean reversion or a short squeeze.

5. RSI and Momentum (Estimated)

• Based on the multi-day down move and consolidation at support, RSI is likely below 40 on the daily, signaling an oversold or neutral condition. Momentum is flat.

6. Volume Profile

• Volume was extremely high during the May blow-off and subsequent crash.
• Since June, volumes have normalized: decreased volume on red candles and slightly increasing on green, hinting at buyers stepping in at support.

7. Volatility Analysis (ATR etc.)

• ATR (Average True Range) decreased from 0.08–0.10 in late May to around 0.03 in June's consolidation, highlighting a volatility contraction, which often precedes a breakout.

8. Fibonacci Retracement (from $1.64 to $1.03)

• 23.6% at $1.19
• 38.2% at $1.29
• 50% at $1.34
• 61.8% at $1.41
• Current price sits near the bottom (0%), indicating good risk/reward for mean reversion trades.

9. Market Sentiment and Price Action

• The violent sell-off from $1.64 to $1.03 is a standard post-blow-off correction, but the double bottom and stabilization hint exhaustion of sellers.
• No evidence yet of a strong reversal, but the formation of higher lows intra-day (on June 6) is a precursor to short covering or a relief bounce.
• No major bearish catalysts are evident in volume or price structure.

10. Probability Assessment and Plan

• Probability of continued further downside is limited in the short term due to clear support at $1.03, establishment of double bottom, and failed bear drives during the last sessions.
• ATR contraction and sideways price action suggest impending volatility — likely to the upside as shorts cover and patient buyers step in.
• Any break of $1.09 resistance could trigger a push toward $1.13, which aligns with the 20-SMA and prior support-turned-resistance.

Synthesis and Trade Idea

• With clear support, declining volume on sell moves, and technical mean reversion signals, the risk/reward heavily favors taking a long position at current prices, with stop loss below $1.03 and a first target between $1.13–$1.14.
• If momentum is strong, a rally to $1.18 (38.2% Fib) could materialize.

Conclusion:

• The technicals suggest short-term oversold conditions, failed breakdown, and setup for a bounce to the first resistance. The mean reversion and double bottom thesis outweigh marginal downside risk at this level. BUY recommendation.