Step-by-Step Worldcoin (WLD) Price Analysis — 24H Forecast

1. Chart Structure & Historical Context

• Recent Trend: WLD has experienced a high-volatility, high-volume upward surge since late May, peaking at $1.64 on May 22, followed by a retracement correction and phase of consolidation in the $1.13-1.26 range. The latest candle was at $1.158782.
• Recent Lows and Highs: The short-term trend shows higher lows, with significant support found between $1.12 and $1.14. A swing high was set near $1.18 (June 10, hourly peak), and earlier, $1.19-1.25 acted as resistance.

2. Trend Analysis

• Moving Averages (MA):
  • EMA(9/21/50): The hourly and daily EMA clusters are converging at $1.14–$1.16, suggesting equilibrium and potential for a breakout move.
  • 200-period MA (estimating): Currently, price is oscillating near its 100-200 MA band, lacking clear upward momentum, indicating a neutral-to-bearish tilt in the ultra-short term.
• MACD Analysis:
  • On the daily, MACD lines are close to crossing over bearishly. Shorter timeframes show decreasing bullish momentum after a failed push above $1.18–$1.19.
• RSI (14):
  • Hourly RSI hovered in the upper-50s to mid-60s during recent attempts above $1.18, but has since dropped back towards a neutral 48-52 range — indicating indecision and no significant overbought/oversold pressure.
• ADX:
  • The Average Directional Index is weakening, below 20, indicating trend exhaustion and rising potential for a new directional breakout.

3. Volume & Order Flow

• Volume spiked significantly during rallies and retracements but is trending lower, signifying fading trader interest and a possible consolidation or prep for a breakout.
• No signs of aggressive accumulation at these levels; liquidity at $1.13 and $1.19 is pronounced.

4. Pattern Recognition

• Chart Patterns:
  • A broad ascending base from May’s lows ($1.03–$1.12), but with lower highs following the strong impulse rally, forming a potential bear flag/bear pennant on the 4H chart.
  • The last three major daily candles show long upper wicks, indicating selling pressure on rallies above $1.15–$1.16.
• Support & Resistance Analysis:
  • Major Resistance: $1.18, $1.19–$1.21, then $1.25.
  • Immediate Support: $1.14 (recent hourly/h4 base), then a strong confluence at $1.12 and psychological $1.10.
  • If $1.12 fails, next probable lower target zone: $1.09–$1.03 (June lows).

5. Volatility & Momentum Gauges

• ATR (Average True Range): Compressing gradually during the last 24h, highlighting a squeeze likely to resolve in a sharp move. If breakdown occurs, the $1.12–$1.14 support may not hold for long.
• Bollinger Bands: Price hugging mid to lower bands with bands tightening — setup for a volatility expansion, which, combined with trend exhaustion, adds likelihood of a near-term price drop.

6. Fibonacci Retracement & Extension

• The major rally high (1.64) to the latter May/June base near $1.03 offers a key 50% retracement at ~1.33. The rejection around $1.25 perfectly aligns with the 38.2%–50% fib band; recent action failed to maintain move at 23.6% ($1.18), which has now become resistance.
• Downside fib targets if support breaks: $1.09, $1.04.

7. Candlestick & Price Action

• Numerous shooting star, inverted hammer, and long upper-wick hourly/daily candles in the past 48h (especially June 10), solidifying strong seller presence above $1.16–$1.18.

8. Sentiment & Market Structure

• The major post-May uptrend was supply-driven; with volume and volatility compressing, risk-off positioning likely prevails unless there is a substantial push on high volume above $1.18 (currently unlikely as per orderbook/volume data).
• Lack of immediate catalyst, theme trending to fading momentum.

9. Derivatives & Liquidation Risk (if available)

• While there is limited derivatives data, spot market positioning suggests trapped late buyers above $1.18–$1.20, who may fuel further downside as stop-losses trigger.

10. Composite View & Synthesis

• Trend, momentum, and price action tools all lean bearish, with seller absorption above $1.16 and a liquidity gap below $1.14.
• Probability of a retest of $1.12–$1.13 support in the next 24h is high, with a significant chance for further downside toward $1.09 and possibly $1.03–$1.05, especially if a high-volume breakdown occurs.
• Upside risk is capped clearly by $1.18–$1.19 — a rally above this level would invalidate the short thesis, but the preponderance of evidence supports a move lower first.

Final Conclusion

All primary indicators, price structure, volatility, and order flow signal a high-probability SHORT trade setup. Expect a breakdown through $1.14 with next supports at $1.12 and $1.09.

Trade Plan:

• Entry: Open short on next bounce toward $1.155–$1.160 zone (offers best reward/risk as price approaches recent resistance and 21/50 EMA).
• Target: Take profit at $1.110–$1.115, possibly trail further if breakdown accelerates.
• Risk Management: Stop-loss for short thesis at $1.185 (above latest swing high and resistance cluster).

Action: SELL (Short Position) at $1.158, target $1.11

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Notes

• Setup remains valid while price remains below $1.18 (hourly closes). Invalidation if strong reversal above $1.19 on high volume.
• Given volatility contraction, expect a break in the next 6–20 hours.