Step 1: Trend Context & Price Structure

Examining the daily chart data for WLD from March to June 2025, we observe several distinct phases:

• Early March to mid-April: Choppy, sideways movement between ~$0.75 and $0.95 with occasional spikes, indicating no clear primary trend but with flashes of volatility.
• Mid-April to late May: A massive surge peaking above $1.60 on May 22 (bullish liquidity event), followed by rapid mean reversion and pronounced selloffs in the following days.
• Late May to current (June): Steep downtrend is evident—lower highs and lower lows, volume spikes increasing as price falls past previous support zones ($1.30, then $1.10), suggesting panic selling and capitulation.
• Current Spot ($0.96): Price is testing levels last seen in March/early April, resting near multi-month lows, with volatility remaining elevated but showing short-term range contraction.

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Step 2: Technical Indicator Analysis

A. Moving Averages

• Short-term EMA (10, 20 period): Both falling sharply, with price consistently below both, confirming ongoing bearish momentum.
• 50 & 100 period EMA/SMA: Also sloping down, with no recent bullish crossovers; all show strong trending bearish structure.

B. Oscillators: RSI, Stochastic, MACD

• RSI (14D): Likely at or below 35, showing oversold regime for the last several sessions. However, note that relief bounces out of oversold are weak.
• MACD: Bearish crossover persists since late May; histogram remains negative—downward momentum has slowed very slightly, but no divergence or reversal confirmed.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Remains under 20 (deep oversold), but with little sign of stochastic crossover. No bullish signal yet.

C. Volume

• Volume Profile: May's surge and subsequent crash saw elevated volume; recent days' volumes have picked up again as price collapsed through $1 support, a classic sign of capitulation.
• Today: Current session shows lighter but still above-average volume as price builds a narrow range.

D. Price Action (Candlestick & Microstructure)

• Intraday (every hour): Since June 13, price failed repeated attempts above $0.99 - $1.00 and quickly rejected. Today's hourly bars show lower highs, small-bodied candles with long wicks—consistent with consolidation after a sharp selloff, not with strong renewed buying.
• Support/Resistance:
  • Immediate resistance: $0.99 – $1.00 (multiple failed retests intra-day)
  • Psychological round number: $1.00
  • Nearest historical support: $0.94 (March support band), then $0.85 and $0.80

E. Fibonacci Retracement

• From the $1.60+ May peak to the June lows: Price failed to hold the 61.8% retrace ($1.13), broke through 78.6% ($1.00) and now rests at the very bottom of the retracement, indicating risk of further capitulation if $0.96 fails.

F. ATR (Average True Range, Volatility)

• Volatility remains very high (doubling from typical ATR in April to now), making risk extremely elevated. Current contraction could precede another expansion move—likely downward given context.

Step 3: Pattern & Sentiment Analysis

• Head & Shoulders pattern in late May/early June (left shoulder: May 11-13, head: May 22, right shoulder: May 30–June 2) broke down decisively.
• Descending Triangle forms since early June—with base at $0.96, lower highs throughout past 10 sessions. Statistically, breaks of such triangles at cycle lows often resolve lower.
• Market Sentiment: Participants appear exhausted as price keeps failing rebounds. The number of failed recoveries around $1.00 increases the chance of forced liquidations or further stop sweeps below $0.96–$0.94.

Step 4: Liquidity & Order Book Dynamics

• Liquidity clusters (based on order flow): Massive stop liquidity likely beneath $0.96, with very little visible support until $0.91–$0.90, then $0.85.
• Order book thin above $0.97–$0.98, as evidenced by quick rejections. Bears remain in control, looking to drive price to new lows.

Step 5: Final Synthesis & 24-Hour Outlook

• Momentum is still negative; any relief rally faces strong sell pressure at $1.00.
• Break of $0.96 would trigger more forced selling, likely accelerating the drop toward $0.91 or $0.90 before lower liquidity at $0.85 comes into play.
• Bullish case (contrarian): Only a strong engulfing candle reclaiming $1.01 on volume would hint at a bear trap reversal, which is objectively absent right now.

Step 6: Trade Plan, Entry & Target

• Best trade with the current information: Initiate a short position on a retest and failure of $0.97 (small bounce into resistance), with a target at the next historical support: $0.91 (conservative), or $0.90 (aggressive). Alternatively, if risk manages to break $0.96 on volume, joining momentum to the downside is also valid.
• Stop loss should be above $1.01 to manage risk (just above failed intraday highs of last 36 hours).

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Conclusion

Given the broken market structure, high volatility following a massive distribution phase, exhaustion of buyers, failed retests at $1.00, and the pattern structure (descending triangle/failed recoveries), the 24-hour probability heavily favors further downside.

Decision: SELL (Short position)

Optimal Open Price: Enter on a retest of $0.97–$0.98 (intraday resistance, high risk-reward entry). Close Price (target): $0.91 (first strong support; partial profits can be taken here). Aggressive traders may target $0.90.

Risk Note

Extra caution is advised given the thin order book and high volatility; consider quick adjustments if price action flips decisively.

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Summary:

• WLD is in a strong short-term downtrend with breakdown from key support, oversold but no significant reversal signals.
• Intraday bias points to another leg down before any sustainable recovery.
• Sell on small bounces near $0.97 for optimal risk/reward.
• Cover at $0.91 for first major support retest.

No evidence yet for a bottom; avoid long trades until price action retakes $1.01+ with volume confirmation.