Worldcoin (WLD): Sell the 1.30 Rejection — Targeting 1.24 as Downtrend Resumes

Executive summary

• Bias: Short-term bearish continuation within a descending channel; sellers defending 1.30–1.35, buyers show up near 1.24–1.26. Next 24h base case is a fade of rallies into 1.29–1.31 with a retest of 1.25 ± 0.01.
• Trade idea: Sell a pop into 1.295–1.305 (limit), target 1.245; protective stop 1.316 (above hourly supply/failed breakout). R:R ≈ 1:2.9.
• Expected 24h range: 1.24–1.32 (skew to downside). Probabilities: 60% bearish/sideways to support, 30% range-bound chop, 10% impulsive upside through 1.33.

1. Market structure and price action (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Clear series of lower highs since 2.14 (Sep 9): 1.87 → 1.66 → 1.61 → 1.51 → 1.47 → 1.39 → 1.35. Lower lows progressed to the 1.30–1.26 region, with today’s intraday sweep to ~1.24 and a weak close around 1.27. Structure remains bearish until 1.35–1.40 is reclaimed on a daily closing basis.
• 1H intraday: Today formed a classic liquidity sweep and fade: selloff to 1.24–1.25, impulsive rebound to 1.31 (18:00–19:00 UTC), then failure back below 1.29 and closing near 1.27. That marks 1.30–1.31 as fresh intraday supply, consistent with the broader daily supply band 1.30–1.35.
• Channels: Price respects a descending channel from Sep 10; today’s intraday high (≈1.315) tagged the channel’s mid/upper area and rejected.

2. Key levels (confluence)

• Resistance/supply: 1.295–1.315 (intraday supply from today’s failed rally), 1.35 (daily supply and lower-high pivot), 1.39–1.40 (major daily pivot and 7/22 reference high).
• Support/demand: 1.24–1.26 (today’s defended zone), 1.20–1.22 (major structural level; also near 78.6% retracement confluence), 0.97 (pre-rally low; tail risk).
• Classical pivots (using 9/24 H=1.3613, L=1.2612, C=1.3543): PP ≈ 1.3256; S1 ≈ 1.2899; S2 ≈ 1.2255; R1 ≈ 1.3900. Today respected the map: rejection below PP and R1, hover around/below S1, with S2 as deeper risk.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• SMA20 (approx): ~1.50. Price at 1.27 is well below the 20SMA: short-term bearish/mean-reversion eligible but with trend pressure down.
• SMA50 (approx): ~1.15–1.20. Price remains above the 50SMA: medium-term trend still net up from summer base, but momentum since Sep 9 is decisively down.
• EMAs (9/21): EMA9 and EMA21 are declining and above spot; price trades below both on the daily and hourly—confirming active downtrend pressure. A bearish “EMA ribbon” alignment persists (9 < 21 < 50 crossing down since ~Sep 19–21).

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (14D approx): high 30s to low 40s; bearish but not yet deeply oversold. This supports rally-fade behavior rather than capitulation or V-bottom.
• RSI (1H): Rebounded to mid-50s on the post-sweep rally, rolled back to mid-40s—neutral/slightly bearish intraday.
• MACD (D): Bearish, below signal and drifting under zero; histogram negative with only brief deceleration on 9/24. Momentum still favors selling rallies.
• Stoch RSI (D, qualitative): cycled up on 9/24 bounce then turned down with today’s failure—momentum downswing resuming.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14D approx): ~0.18. Realized ranges the past two days were ~0.10–0.13, indicating compressed but still elevated volatility post-spike.
• Bollinger Bands (20D approx): Basis ~1.50 with a widened envelope post-rally; lower band estimated around 1.20–1.23. Price is in the lower third of the bands—weak trend zone where bounces are common but tend to fail beneath the mid-band.

6. Volume, OBV, and VWAP

• Volume profile: Enormous distribution above 1.50–1.90 from Sep 8–12 creates heavy overhead supply. More recent activity clusters around 1.30–1.35 (Sep 22–24) and today’s 1.27–1.31. Expect persistent selling into 1.30–1.35 until absorbed.
• OBV (qualitative): Lower highs since Sep 10; no accumulation signal. Pullbacks on higher volume, bounces on lighter volume—bearish.
• Daily VWAP (today, rough): ~1.28. Last trade ~1.27 sits slightly below; intraday sellers are in control into the close.

7. Fibonacci mapping (swing low to high: 0.967 → 2.140)

• 38.2%: ~1.692; 50%: ~1.553; 61.8%: ~1.416; 78.6%: ~1.220. Current price (1.27) is between 61.8% and 78.6% retraces—deep retracement zone. The 1.22–1.27 area often acts as last-stand support before full round-trips. A decisive daily break of 1.22 risks a slide toward 1.05–0.97.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below Kumo; Tenkan below Kijun; Lagging span faces thick price resistance—bearish stack. Kijun likely near 1.50–1.55, consistent with 20SMA resistance. Any bounce likely stalls below the cloud (≤1.40–1.50) near term.

9. Candlestick/pattern read

• Daily: 9/23 printed a low near 1.30, 9/24 bounce to 1.35, and today’s red day retraces most of that—classic lower-high to lower-low continuation setup.
• 1H today: Bullish engulfing from 1.24 to 1.31 was fully faded—a sign of supply dominance and a good reference for a sell-the-rip entry.

10. Statistical/mean-reversion context

• Z-score vs 20D mean: approximately −1.2σ. In downtrends, −1σ bounces often fail below the midline; tendency favors another test of lower tail (1.24–1.25) before any sustained reversion.

11. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Fade rallies into 1.295–1.315; re-test 1.25–1.26; intraday lows probing 1.245; daily close 1.26–1.28.
• Range case (30%): 1.26–1.31 chop around daily VWAP; unsuccessful breaks both ways, net-neutral close.
• Bull surprise (10%): Strong bid pushes through 1.315 and 1.33; stops cascade toward 1.35 where larger supply likely caps the move.

12. Risk management and invalidation

• Invalidation for the short: 1H close above 1.315 or a daily close above 1.35 (break of intraday and daily supply respectively). That would signal a shift toward a squeeze into 1.39–1.40 and potentially the 1.45–1.50 band (Bollinger mid / Kijun zone).
• Downside tail risk: If 1.24–1.25 fails decisively with volume, expect acceleration toward 1.22 (Fib 78.6%) and, if momentum persists, 1.20–1.21. Extreme case tests 1.05–0.97 over a multi-session horizon, not my base case within 24h.

13. Why short the bounce

• Confluence of supply at 1.30–1.35 (multi-touch, failed rallies, EMA/VWAP overhead), bearish momentum (MACD, RSI sub-50), and trend alignment (below 20EMA/21EMA and 20SMA). The most efficient trade is to sell strength into known supply with tight invalidation just above the intraday breakdown pivot.

Trade plan summary

• Entry (limit): 1.295 (acceptable band 1.295–1.305 to improve fill probability).
• Stop (discretionary, not part of order schema): 1.316 (above 1H supply and today’s rejection zone). Risk ≈ 0.021.
• Take profit: 1.245 (near intraday support/liquidity pocket). Reward ≈ 0.050. R:R ≈ 2.4–3.0 depending on fill.
• Contingency: If price never revisits 1.295 and heads straight to 1.25, avoid chasing into support; wait for either a break-and-retest below 1.245 to add momentum short, or another bounce back to 1.29–1.31 to re-attempt the limit sell.

Bottom line

• The path of least resistance remains lower while below 1.31 (intraday) and 1.35 (daily). Sell the 1.30s, aim for mid-1.24s, manage risk above 1.316. Expect a 1.24–1.32 range over the next 24 hours with a bearish skew.