WLD poised for a pivot-fail slide: Short the bounce toward 0.65, target 0.612 within 24h

Worldcoin (WLD) – Multi‑framework 24h Technical Playbook

Summary view

• Structure: Persistent daily downtrend from early October; recent bounce off 0.592 (11/21) failed below 0.670 and is rolling back over.
• Location: Trading at 0.6347, sitting right on a classic pivot S1 from yesterday and under the 20‑day SMA. Lower highs and lower lows intact.
• Bias: Bearish continuation toward 0.621–0.612 over the next 24 hours unless price reclaims 0.653–0.656.

1. Trend, moving averages, and regression

• 20‑day SMA ≈ 0.676 (est.): Price below the 20‑SMA and pointing down → short‑term trend bearish.
• 50‑day SMA ≈ 0.90–0.95 (est.): Well above current price → intermediate trend bearish; rallies are supply events.
• 9/21‑EMA slope (est.): Both below the 20‑SMA and sloping down → momentum negative.
• Linear regression (last ~30 sessions): Negative slope; price traveling the lower half of the channel since mid‑Nov → trend pressure remains down.

2. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) ≈ 38 (derived from the last 14 closes): Bearish bias, not yet oversold (<30). Room to fall before exhaustion.
• Stochastic %K (14) ≈ mid‑30s (range ref: 0.592–0.711): Momentum weak; no bullish crossover signal.
• MACD (12/26/9): Below zero; histogram recently narrowed on the 11/21–11/26 bounce but has started rolling back down -> negative momentum re‑asserting.

3. Volatility and range

• ATR(14) ≈ 0.032–0.036: Typical daily swing supports a 24h move of ~0.03–0.04. From 0.6347 this implies a probable range: 0.605–0.665.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 0.676; lower band ≈ 0.616, upper ≈ 0.736 (est.). Price is in the lower half, not hugging the band, suggesting orderly drift lower rather than a panic flush—yet still downside room to the lower band (~0.616) within one ATR.

4. Market structure, S/R and Fibonacci

• Key supports: 0.634–0.635 (pivot S1), 0.630 (50% retrace of 0.592→0.6688), 0.621 (61.8%), 0.608–0.612 (78.6% / BB lower proximity), then 0.592 cycle low.
• Key resistances: 0.648–0.650 (classic pivot P ≈ 0.650), 0.653–0.656 (supply from 11/26–27 closes), 0.665–0.670 (R1 ≈ 0.665; failed swing high zone), 0.711.
• Fibonacci (recent swing): Rally 0.592→0.6688. Pullback levels from high:
  • 38.2%: 0.6394 – already broken.
  • 50%: 0.6304 – next nearby magnet.
  • 61.8%: 0.6213 – target zone.
  • 78.6%: 0.6085 – stretch target, near BB lower. Interpretation: Breakdown through 38.2% favors a visit to 50%/61.8% (0.630→0.621).

5. Price action and candles

• 11/27–11/29: Progressive lower highs/lows after a faded bounce, placing price at/just under broken supports (0.639–0.642) → classic bear‑flag resolution.
• Current session (hourly snippet): Minimal intraday liquidity; price printed 0.6347 at ~19:00 UTC and stalled. Weekends typically thin, which often aids trend continuations.

6. Volume and OBV

• Volume from 11/21 low upward bounce tapered quickly; subsequent pullback saw volume stabilize but not accumulate on up days.
• OBV trend (qualitative): Lower since October, slight uptick on 11/22–26, rolling over again → distribution bias.

7. Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Price below Cloud; Tenkan below Kijun; Cloud ahead is flat‑to‑down. Tenkan ≈ 0.64–0.65, Kijun ≈ 0.69–0.70. Rejection below Tenkan suggests follow‑through lower.

8. ADX/DI (qualitative)

• ADX around low‑20s rising (inference from persistent trend legs). −DI > +DI → directional control remains with sellers.

9. Anchored VWAP and VWAP context

• aVWAP from the 11/21 reversal low likely rides near the mid‑0.64s; price is under it. Rejections below aVWAP after a weak bounce align with continuation lower.
• aVWAP from the 10/10 shock day sits far overhead (~0.80+), confirming higher‑timeframe overhead supply.

10. Classical pivots for 11/29 session (built from 11/28 H/L/C)

• H=0.6657, L=0.6351, C=0.6497
• Pivot P = 0.6502
• S1 = 0.6347 (today’s trade parked exactly here)
• S2 = 0.6196
• R1 = 0.6653 Interpretation: Trading at S1 often leads to a reflex to P (0.650) that fails in downtrends, then a drive to S2 (0.6196). That maps well to fib 61.8% (~0.621) and BB lower zone.

11. Pattern synthesis

• Descending channel since early November; the 11/21 bounce to 0.669 printed a lower high vs 11/20 high 0.711. Subsequent breakdown through 0.639–0.642 invalidate a sustainable reversal attempt.
• No bullish divergence on RSI/MACD visible at present lows; momentum confirmation for bulls is absent.

12. Probabilistic 24h pathing

• Base Case (≈55%): Weak bounce to 0.646–0.650 (pivot retest / aVWAP), fail, then slide to 0.621–0.612. Close near session lows if weekend liquidity thins.
• Alternate Bear (≈20%): No bounce; grind from 0.635 directly through 0.630 to tag 0.619–0.612.
• Risk Bull (≈25%): Squeeze above 0.653–0.656 toward 0.665–0.670 (R1). Requires momentum pickup and volume; without that, likely a fade.

13. Risk management and execution

• Short entries are superior on bounces into broken support/pivot: 0.648–0.650 is ideal. If price only offers 0.642–0.646, still valid but slightly worse R:R.
• Invalidation/stop (not part of the requested fields): Above 0.670 (R1 and recent supply cap). A daily close above 0.670 would threaten the setup and target a re‑test of 0.711.
• Take‑profit logic: Scale or single TP slightly above 61.8% retrace/near S2 → 0.612–0.621 to anticipate front‑running.

14. Confluence snapshot

• Below 20/50‑day MAs; RSI ~38; MACD<0; price at pivot S1; 38.2% fib broken; ATR supports 0.03 downside; BB lower ~0.616 within reach; weekend liquidity supportive of trend continuation → Bearish confluence.

Decision rationale

• The balance of evidence (trend, momentum, structure, pivots, fibs, and volatility) favors a short into a failed bounce with a first objective near 0.62 and a stretch objective near 0.61.

Trade plan for next 24h

• Bias: Sell rallies (Short).
• Optimal entry: 0.648–0.650 (pivot retest). If not reached, 0.642–0.646 remains acceptable given the structure.
• Target: 0.612 (primary). This sits just above the 0.608–0.609 cluster (78.6% of the 0.592→0.6688 leg) and near the BB lower margin, offering high fill probability within 1 ATR.
• Invalidation (contextual): ≥0.670.

Note: This plan is designed for a 24‑hour horizon and assumes typical weekend liquidity dynamics. If price reclaims and holds above 0.656–0.670 with rising volume, the short thesis weakens substantially and standing aside becomes prudent.