Fade the Bounce: Short WLD Into 0.604–0.612 Resistance, Target 0.590 in 24 Hours

Executive summary and 24h outlook

• Bias next 24h: mildly bullish early (mean-reversion bounce) into 0.604–0.614, then likely fade back toward 0.590–0.596 as the dominant daily downtrend and overhead supply reassert.
• Expected 24h range: 0.588–0.616 (base case). Tail scenarios: 0.582 on downside, 0.622–0.628 on upside if momentum expands.
• Trade idea: Fade the bounce into the 0.604–0.612 resistance cluster (Fib 38.2–50%, daily pivot R2 ≈0.6077, descending trendline ~0.61, Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun resistance band). Short into strength with take-profit near 0.590.

Step-by-step technical analysis

1. Trend and market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Clear downtrend since Sep highs (~1.9) with persistent lower highs/lows. Post-October flush, price stair-stepped from ~0.95 to ~0.57–0.66 channel. Current 0.6007 remains below the 50D trend proxy, confirming bearish higher timeframe structure.
• Swing structure: Lower highs: 0.686 (11/19) → 0.656 (11/26) → 0.650 (11/28) → 0.635 (12/03) → 0.620 (12/04). Lower lows: 0.592 (11/21) → 0.575 (12/01, 12/05) → 0.565 (12/07). Today’s bounce is a rally within a downtrend.
• Hourly trend (past 24h): Constructive. Series of higher lows from ~0.563 (12/07 22–23h) to ~0.586–0.588 and higher highs to 0.6008. Short-term momentum up, but price is approaching confluence resistance.

2. Moving averages and momentum baselines

• 20D SMA (approx): ~0.621 (avg of last 19 closes ≈0.6208). Price at 0.6007 is below the 20SMA by ~3.3% → still under mean; mean-reversion target sits above current.
• 50D SMA (rough): ~0.73 (skewed by October levels). Price materially below → bearish regime confirmation.
• Short-term EMAs (hourly): Price trading above 20/50-hour EMAs with positive slope, indicating intraday tailwind; however, these EMAs are curling into the 0.595–0.600 region and could be retested after initial push.

3. RSI and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) estimate ≈ 43–46: recovering from low-40s after a string of declines; neutral-bearish but improving. Suggests room for a small bounce, not a trend reversal signal yet.
• Hourly RSI: Rising and approaching upper neutral band; warns of near-term overextension as price tags resistance zones.

4. MACD (qualitative)

• Daily MACD: Negative, histogram likely contracting as price stabilizes from 0.565 → 0.600. That signals a loss of bearish momentum but not yet a bullish crossover. Aligns with a bounce-to-sell setup.
• Hourly MACD: Positive with rising histogram; momentum push can extend into the first resistance pocket (0.604–0.612) before stalling.

5. Bollinger Bands (daily)

• 20D mid-band ≈ 0.621; lower band estimated ≈ 0.567; upper ≈ 0.675. 12/07 close (0.565) essentially tagged lower band; today’s bounce toward mid-band is classic mean-reversion. Likely stalls before mid-band (~0.621), reinforcing fade zone ~0.604–0.616.

6. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below cloud; Tenkan (~9-period mid of H/L) around ~0.61; Kijun (~26-period) ~0.63–0.64. Chikou likely below price. Setup remains bearish; Tenkan/Kijun act as overhead resistance layers. First test typically fades in a downtrend unless volume expands meaningfully.

7. Fibonacci retracements

• Swing: 11/19 high 0.6667 to 12/07 low 0.5654 (range ≈ 0.1013).
• 38.2%: 0.6041; 50%: 0.6160; 61.8%: 0.6279.
• Current price is pressing the 38.2% region; 50% aligns near the descending trendline and Tenkan resistance. Expect supply between 0.604–0.616.

8. Classical S/R and pivots

• Support: 0.592 (11/21 close), 0.577 (12/06), 0.5747 (12/01 & 12/05 closes), 0.565 (12/07 low/close).
• Resistance: 0.604–0.607 (38.2% + daily pivot R2), 0.612–0.616 (50% + trendline + Tenkan), 0.628–0.635 (61.8%/prior swing closes), 0.649–0.656 (late Nov supply). Strong confluence in 0.604–0.616.
• Daily floor pivots (from 12/07 H/L/C = 0.5938/0.5587/0.5654):
  • P ≈ 0.5726; R1 ≈ 0.5866; R2 ≈ 0.6077; R3 ≈ 0.6428. Price broke above R1 and is gravitating toward R2 ≈ 0.6077 — a high-probability fade level in a downtrend.

9. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Daily volume has moderated vs. prior weeks; bounce from 0.565 to 0.600 occurred on average-to-moderate volume — not a breakout signature. OBV appears flatlining rather than trending up; no decisive accumulation.
• Intraday volumes around the rise to 0.600 are modest; last hour’s pop to 0.6008 did not exhibit outsized prints. This reduces the probability of an immediate sustained breakout through layered resistance.

10. Volatility and ATR

• Hourly ATR(14) rough ≈ 0.005–0.006; daily realized range has been compressing. A 24h ±0.012–0.014 move from 0.600 implies 0.588–0.614 as the most likely envelope, matching our levels.

11. Regression channel and trendline confluence

• 20-session linear regression downward; current price near upper channel boundary. The descending supply line from 11/19 → 11/26 → 11/28 → 12/03 → 12/04 intersects ~0.61–0.612 today, reinforcing a sell-the-rip zone.

12. Candlestick context

• 12/07 daily candle: lower-tail bar near band lows; bounce follow-through on 12/08 intraday. On hourly, a series of small-bodied bullish candles toward resistance — often stalls into an evening pullback without fresh catalysts.

13. VWAP (intraday)

• Intraday VWAP today is estimated around the high-0.58s to ~0.59. Price at 0.600 is ~1.5–2% above VWAP, signaling mild extension; reversion drives likely on failed break above 0.607–0.612.

14. Strategy synthesis

• Mean reversion supports a push toward 0.604–0.616; trend and resistance confluence favor fading that strength. The asymmetric setup: short near 0.606–0.612 with downside magnet 0.592–0.596, potentially 0.588 if momentum turns.
• Breakout contingency: A firm hourly close above 0.616 with rising volume could extend to 0.628–0.635; until then, base case is rejection.

Scenario map (next 24h)

• Base (60%): Price tests 0.604–0.612, stalls, retreats to 0.592–0.596, settles ~0.595–0.600.
• Bull extension (25%): Clean break and hold above 0.616 targets 0.628–0.635; fade fails.
• Bear surprise (15%): Early failure under 0.600 with momentum shift retraces to 0.588–0.582 without tagging 0.604.

Risk management notes (for completeness)

• If shorting 0.606–0.612, a prudent invalidation lies above 0.616–0.618 (conservative) or 0.628 (aggressive, beyond 61.8%). Without a stop in the order template, monitor closely.

Conclusion

• The path of least resistance in the next 24h is a marginally higher test into a dense confluence at 0.604–0.612, followed by reversion toward 0.590–0.596. The higher-timeframe downtrend remains intact; intraday momentum is a rally to sell rather than a breakout to chase.