WLFI33251: Ascending Triangle Coils Under 0.225 — Set for a Push Toward 0.232

Comprehensive multi‑method technical read on WLFI33251 (World Liberty Financial)

Timeframe and data used

• Daily candles: 2025-09-01 to 2025-09-16 (EOD for 9/15 and intraday close for 9/16)
• Intraday (hourly): 2025-09-15 21:00 to 2025-09-16 20:56
• Current price: 0.22176339

1. Market structure and trend diagnostics

• Macro swing (daily): A violent spike high on 2025-09-01 (H=0.4600) followed by a capitulation low on 2025-09-04 (L=0.1632). Since then, price has formed a basing structure with higher lows from 2025-09-09 onward (0.2007 → 0.2103 → 0.2169 → 0.2218). This confirms an emerging short-term uptrend within a broader post‑selloff consolidation.
• Micro structure (hourly): From 2025-09-16 01:00–20:00, a sequence of higher lows is visible (≈0.2164 → 0.2173 → 0.2178 → 0.2182 → 0.2190–0.2200), with a clear resistance shelf at 0.2248–0.2253 (multiple rejections around 05:00–08:00). This forms an ascending triangle bias (rising base, flat lid) which often resolves upward.
• Key levels observed:
  • Immediate resistance: 0.2248–0.2253 (hourly lid), then 0.2304 (pivot R2), then 0.2323 (Fib 23.6%), and 0.2389–0.2391 (daily swing high/Classic R3).
  • Near supports: 0.2210–0.2213 (intraday balance), 0.2192–0.2200 (intraday pullback zone), 0.2160–0.2170 (hourly demand), 0.2107–0.2110 (daily balance), 0.2007 (recent swing low).

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• SMA(5) ≈ 0.2161 (using last 5 closes through current); price is above → short‑term bullish.
• SMA(10) ≈ 0.2114; price is above → momentum improving vs the 2‑week baseline.
• SMA(14)/SMA(20): Estimates put the midline around 0.211–0.213 given recent closes; price trades above both, suggesting a constructive tilt.
• EMA(8)/EMA(21) qualitative: The faster EMA is above the slower since 2025-09-13–14, consistent with a nascent bull phase. The slope of both has turned positive. Conclusion: MA stack supports a mild bullish bias; no overextension relative to short MAs.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) (daily) estimate: mid‑50s (≈54–57). Interpretation: bullish but not overbought; room to advance towards 60–65 on a breakout.
• RSI(9) (hourly): oscillating around 50–60, consistent with range‑bound upward bias; momentum builds on each test of 0.225.
• MACD (daily) qualitative: Histogram has likely crossed to positive around 9/13; lines flattening but above zero → constructive, not euphoric.
• Stochastics (fast) on hourly: likely hovering near mid‑to‑upper band on each rally, with shallow pullbacks—typical of squeeze conditions under resistance. Conclusion: Momentum supports a modest bullish continuation; no immediate overbought signals.

4. Volatility and range analysis

• Daily ranges (ex‑9/1 outlier) cluster around 0.015–0.03; current ATR(10) estimate ≈ 0.020–0.023. Today’s effective range so far (H≈0.2252, L≈0.2151) is ≈0.010→ compression.
• Volatility contraction: Bollinger Bandwidth (proxy) is narrowing; price is above the 20‑period mean, hugging the upper half of the band—often a precursor to resolution in trend direction (here upward, given higher lows). Conclusion: Squeeze dynamics suggest a directional move in the next 24 hours; bias slightly favors an upside break given structure.

5. Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels

• With a 20‑period basis around ≈0.211–0.213 and estimated 20‑period SD ≈0.006–0.007, upper BB ≈ 0.223–0.227; price trades near/just under upper band, validating resistance proximity but also bullish posture.
• BB vs KC squeeze (qualitative): Bands likely inside or near Keltner envelope—supports imminent expansion. Conclusion: A push through 0.225 should open 0.230–0.233 quickly.

6. Fibonacci mapping (major swing 9/1 H=0.4600 to 9/4 L=0.1632)

• 23.6%: 0.2323 (low + 0.236*(0.2968)) → first meaningful retracement cap.
• 38.2%: ≈0.2772, 50%: ≈0.3116, 61.8%: ≈0.3450.
• Price has repeatedly stalled below 0.232–0.233 over the last two weeks; this aligns with our upside target region for the next 24 hours. Conclusion: 0.2323 is the first Fibonacci test above the current micro‑range. Expect supply here.

7. Pivot points (Classic) using 2025-09-15 H/L/C (0.221631/0.206178/0.216937)

• PP: 0.214915
• R1: 0.223652 (very close to current price area)
• R2: 0.230368
• R3: 0.239105
• S1: 0.208199 Conclusion: The market is currently pinging R1. A clean hourly close above ≈0.2240–0.2250 would shift focus to R2 (0.2304) and then the Fib 23.6% (0.2323). R3 aligns with the 9/14 daily high (≈0.2391).

8. Volume and OBV

• Daily volumes have tapered from early‑month extremes; recent green candles on moderate volume point to steady accumulation rather than blow‑off.
• OBV (qualitative) has nudged higher since 9/12; intraday upswings show slightly better participation than downswings, consistent with an ascending triangle. Conclusion: No distribution signal; accumulation mild.

9. VWAPs

• Intraday session VWAP sits close to 0.221–0.222 given today’s balance; price is toggling around VWAP with higher lows. Maintaining above intraday VWAP into the US evening/Asia open increases odds of an upside squeeze.

10. Ichimoku (qualitative, limited lookback)

• Tenkan (9‑period) near ≈0.214–0.215, Kijun (26‑period) around ≈0.212–0.213 (approx). Price above Tenkan and likely near/above Kijun. Cloud ahead likely thin/flat near 0.212–0.215. Conclusion: Tenkan>price distance small (healthy), bullish bias while holding above Kijun.

11. Pattern diagnostics

• Ascending triangle on hourly: rising lows into horizontal resistance ≈0.225. Pattern completion threshold: sustained trade >0.2253–0.2256.
• If broken, measured move target equals height of base (~0.2253–0.2160 ≈ 0.0093) added to breakout: ≈0.2346. First resistance at 0.230–0.233 may cap initial leg; the full measured move could realize on a momentum extension.

12. Regression and slope

• Linear regression slope over last 10 daily closes: modestly positive (~+0.001–0.002/day), consistent with a grind higher.

13. Risk framing and scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Ascending triangle resolves upward after one more shallow dip to 0.220–0.221; price pushes 0.225–0.226, tags 0.230–0.233 with sellers emerging at Fib 23.6% (0.2323).
• Bearish alt (25%): Another rejection at 0.225 leads to a drift back to 0.219–0.220 and possibly a test of 0.216–0.217 (triangle base) before reattempting higher.
• Bullish extension (15%): Clean breakout with momentum carries to 0.235–0.239 (R3/9/14 high) if liquidity thins and volatility expands.

14. Confluence map

• Confluent resistance: 0.225 (hourly lid) ≈ R1, then 0.230–0.233 (R2 + Fib 23.6%).
• Confluent support: 0.219–0.221 (intraday VWAP zone) and 0.216–0.217 (triangle base and prior pivot).
• Price location: Above SMA(5/10), near upper BB, under resistance → favorable for a buy‑the‑dip or breakout‑buy strategy.

15. Trade logic and optimization

• Entry preference: Buy the shallow pullback into 0.220–0.221 to align with VWAP/short MAs and improve reward/risk, while retaining proximity to the breakout. Alternate is a breakout entry >0.2256, but pullback entry provides better expectancy if the market continues to grind.
• Exit/target: The first high‑probability magnet is 0.2323 (Fib 23.6%/recent cap). Given ATR and the current squeeze, this should be reachable within 24 hours if the breakout triggers.
• Stop‑loss guidance (not requested but essential): Below 0.2160 (triangle base), to invalidate the higher‑low structure. This places risk ≈ 0.0049 vs target ≈ 0.0114 → R:R ~ 2.3:1.

Forecast for next 24 hours

• Probable path: Mild bullish drift, breakout trials above 0.225; if accepted, an advance into 0.230–0.233. Expect chop if initial breakout fails, but higher‑low structure likely holds unless 0.216 breaks.

Decision rationale

• The confluence of higher lows, price > short MAs, RSI mid‑50s, BB squeeze near upper band, hourly ascending triangle, and pivot alignment all favor a long. Overhead resistance is close, but the risk can be controlled with a tight stop and a realistic target at the 23.6% retracement.