WLFI33251 Breakout Retest: Bulls Eye a Re-Challenge of $0.255 and a Push Toward $0.26

TL;DR (snapshot)

• Instrument: World Liberty Financial (WLFI33251)
• Current price: $0.24428558
• Structure: Fresh upside breakout above a multi-week ceiling (~0.237–0.243) with a pullback toward breakout zone (classic breakout–retest behavior)
• Bias next 24h: Bullish continuation favored; base case re-test/hold of $0.242–0.244 then re-challenge $0.255–0.260
• Action: Buy the retest; target just above prior high

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: From the Sept 5 swing low ($0.1758 intraday low on 9/5; daily close $0.1813) the market has printed a sequence of higher lows and higher highs. Daily closes climbed from $0.1998 (9/11) to $0.2247 (9/20) and now to $0.2443 today. Structure = uptrend.
• Weekly context (inferred from given month): After the Sept 1 spike high ($0.4600), the market sold off and based in the $0.20–0.23 range. The last 10 sessions showed compression, then expansion up through prior resistance.
• Intraday (9/21): A clear push to $0.2546–0.2553 followed by a controlled pullback to the mid-$0.24s, holding above the prior resistance band ($0.237–0.243). That’s constructive for bulls.

2. Support/Resistance mapping (confluence)

• Immediate resistance: $0.2553 (today’s intraday high), then psychological $0.2600; extension resistance near $0.262–0.265 (measured move/extension cluster).
• Immediate support (breakout retest zone): $0.242–0.244 (hourly pivots, prior intraday balance, VWAP vicinity), $0.237–0.238 (23.6% Fib & former daily highs ~0.2371 on 9/19).
• Deeper supports: $0.227 (38.2% Fib; also near recent value area), $0.223–0.225 (dense daily close cluster and classic daily pivot), $0.218 (50% Fib / prior range mid), $0.210–0.212 (61.8% Fib / prior shelf).

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily SMA stack: SMA5 ≈ 0.2225, SMA10 ≈ 0.2171, SMA20 ≈ 0.2138 (approx). Price ($0.2443) > SMA5 > SMA10 > SMA20. Bullish alignment (positive slope and order).
• EMA bias (inferred): 12/26 EMA cross turned positive mid-month; slope rising. Expect MACD line > signal (see momentum section) consistent with trend continuation.
• Implication: Trend-followers will favor dips above the MA ribbon; pullbacks to $0.238–0.244 should attract buyers.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (14, daily, est.): Upper mid-range, roughly ~60–65 after today’s breakout; not overbought on daily even after printing the new local high. Room to run.
• Stochastic (daily, inferred): Cycled into overbought on the spike; pullback cooled it toward neutral; potential bullish re-cross if price holds $0.242–0.244 and turns up.
• MACD (daily, inferred): Positive and widening since 9/13–9/16; histogram expansion likely paused with the intraday pullback but still positive. Trend-confirming, not fading yet.
• Intraday RSI (hourly): Spiked with the move to $0.255, cooled back to mid-50s near the retest area; supports a second push attempt if buyers defend the zone.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR (14, daily, est.): ~0.011–0.014. One ATR up from current implies a reachable band up to ~0.255–0.258 within 24h if momentum resumes.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2, daily): Basis near ~0.214; upper band approximates current region. Today’s earlier pierce above the upper band followed by a controlled re-entry is typical of trend continuation after a brief mean reversion. A hold above $0.242 keeps price riding the upper band.
• Keltner Channels (inferred): Price near/above upper Keltner earlier; pullback toward the mid/upper channel is healthy; suggests trend rather than blow-off.

6. Volume/flow diagnostics

• Daily volume: Significant early-month distribution, then contraction during base, with today’s breakout hours showing clear relative volume spikes (03:00–06:00, 17:00–18:00 UTC). That is classic expansion of participation on break.
• OBV (inferred): Rising alongside price since mid-month, confirming uptrend; no negative divergence evident in supplied data.
• Relative volume intraday: Highest on breakout candles; subsequent pullback on lighter volume indicates profit-taking vs. aggressive selling.

7. Pattern recognition

• Ascending triangle/flat-top breakout: Ceiling ~0.237–0.243 breached today to ~0.255. The pullback into $0.242–0.244 is textbook retest of the breakout neckline.
• Bull flag (micro): After the thrust to $0.255, the gentle drift down toward $0.244 forms a micro flag; a break above $0.252 would likely complete the flag and target $0.258–0.262.
• Market structure: Higher highs/higher lows since 9/11; no change of character. Weakness would require acceptance below ~$0.238.

8. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Swing used: 9/5 low $0.1813 (close) / intraday low $0.1758 to today’s high $0.2553.
• Fib retracements from high: 23.6% ≈ $0.2377, 38.2% ≈ $0.2270, 50% ≈ $0.2183, 61.8% ≈ $0.2096. Current pullback is contained above the 23.6% line, which is bullish for continuation.
• Simple measured move: Height of base (~$0.238 ceiling vs. ~$0.210 shelf ≈ $0.028). Projection from breakout ($0.238 + $0.028) ≈ $0.266. Near-term attainable extension if momentum persists beyond $0.255.

9. Pivots and channels

• Classic daily pivots (based on 9/20): P ≈ 0.2234; R1 ≈ 0.2286; R2 ≈ 0.2325; R3 ≈ 0.2376. Price traded above R3 for much of 9/21, signaling trend day characteristics. Pullback toward $0.244 remains above R3 and yesterday’s entire pivot stack—bullish.
• Donchian: 20-day high just set around $0.255; 20-day low in early month. A 20-day breakout is a classic long signal (Turtle rules). Only invalidated on acceptance back into the prior range below ~$0.237.
• Regression channel (visual inference): Price hugging upper channel post-breakout; modest mean reversion to channel midline would be ~$0.242–0.244.

10. Ichimoku (qualitative, given data limits)

• Price above likely Tenkan and Kijun; cloud ahead expected thin and rising after range break. Bullish regime while above ~$0.238–0.241.

11. Intraday microstructure and VWAP

• Today’s action shows a VWAP/gravity zone in the $0.243–0.247 region (given volume distribution and time at price). Current price $0.2443 is near this zone, not extended. A rebound from here is statistically favored versus immediate breakdown, provided volume remains supportive.

12. Risk management and scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55–60%): Hold $0.242–0.244, rotate up through $0.252; retest/clear $0.255; tag $0.258–0.260 into the close of the 24h window.
• Pullback case (25–30%): Probe $0.238–0.240 (23.6% Fib/old highs). If defended, stronger spring toward $0.258+ follows. A clean hourly close below $0.237 would negate the immediate bull setup and likely send price to $0.227.
• Bear surprise (10–15%): Heavy supply forces acceptance below $0.237; momentum shifts to mean reversion toward $0.227/0.223.

13. Synthesis across tools

• Trend tools (MA/EMA stack, Donchian): Bullish.
• Momentum (RSI/MACD/Stoch): Bullish to neutral-bullish; room to extend.
• Volatility (ATR/Bollinger/Keltner): Expansion day with controlled reversion; upper-band behavior typical of trends.
• Volume (OBV/relative volume): Breakout confirmed by higher participation; pullback on lighter volume.
• Pattern (ascending triangle, breakout–retest): Textbook. Confluence with Fib 23.6% and prior highs.

14. Trading plan

• Setup: Buy-the-retest of the breakout zone. Optimal entry near $0.242–0.244; confirmation trigger if price reclaims >$0.252 intra-24h.
• Target (24h): $0.258–0.260, with stretch to $0.262–0.266 if momentum accelerates.
• Suggested stop (not required but prudent): Below $0.237 (beneath 23.6% Fib and hourly support). Risk ≈ $0.005–0.007 from optimal entry, for R:R ~2.5–3.0 to the base target.

Decision logic

• The majority of independent signals align bullishly (trend, momentum, breakout confirmation, volume). The pullback is shallow and controlled, landing precisely in a confluence support zone. Therefore, I favor a long (Buy) with a limit near $0.242–0.244, aiming to realize gains near $0.259.