Bear Flag Beneath Broken Support: Short the Bounce in WLFI33251 Toward a 0.200 Liquidity Sweep

Below is a step‑by‑step, multi‑method technical review of WLFI33251 using the provided daily and hourly data, followed by a 24‑hour path projection and a precise trade plan.

1. Market structure and price action context

• Regime: After a strong rebound from the 9/9 low (~0.2007) to the 9/21 high (~0.2554 intraday, close 0.2437), today (9/22) printed a decisive downside reversal, closing ~0.2096 near the session lows after an open around 0.2437. This is a clear break in short‑term market structure (loss of higher low sequence), turning the immediate bias from bullish to bearish.
• Candle anatomy: 9/22 is a long‑bodied bearish day with minimal lower shadow (a bearish marubozu‑like session), signaling trend conviction by sellers. It engulfs several prior days’ bodies and closes beneath multiple recent supports.
• Key levels identified from the daily tape: • Support: 0.203–0.205 (today’s LOD cluster near 0.2040), 0.2000 (psychological and prior swing pivot 9/9), 0.196–0.197 (cluster of 9/10–9/12 lows).
  • Resistance: 0.214–0.216 (intraday breakdown shelf), 0.221–0.224 (61.8% retrace level and prior range midpoint), 0.233–0.236 (major breakdown pivot), 0.243–0.246 (yesterday’s close/overnight supply).
• Intraday structure (hourly): A clean sequence of lower highs/lower lows from 00:00 to 16:00 (LOD ≈ 0.2040), followed by a weak bounce to ~0.2097 into 20:55. The last few hours formed a tight bear‑flag consolidation (≈0.207–0.210), typically a continuation pattern unless invalidated by a strong reclaim above 0.214–0.216.

2. Moving averages and trend confirmation

• Daily SMA20: Using the last 20 closes (9/2–9/21), SMA20 ≈ 0.2143. Price at 0.2096 is below SMA20, signaling a shift to the bearish side of the mean.
• Daily SMA10 ≈ 0.2215; SMA5 ≈ 0.2264 (pre‑today). Price is below both SMAs, confirming short‑term momentum deterioration.
• Interpretation: Price closing back below the 10/20‑day means a failed upper‑band breakout and a likely mean‑reversion overshoot to the downside (often toward the lower Bollinger band or prior demand).

3. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Basis (SMA20) ≈ 0.2143. Estimated 20‑day standard deviation ≈ 0.0142, so upper ≈ 0.2427, lower ≈ 0.1858.
• 9/21 close (0.2437) marginally breached the upper band (exhaustion signal). 9/22’s decisive drop re‑entered the bands and sliced through the basis, often a setup for extension toward the lower band area over the next 1–3 sessions.
• Current location: Price is in the lower third of the envelope but not yet stretched; there is room to test 0.196–0.203.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Before today, the run to 9/21 pushed RSI into high‑50s/low‑60s (estimated ~67 intraday). Today’s loss likely compresses RSI toward ~40–45, i.e., neutral‑bearish, not yet oversold. That leaves scope for further downside before a high‑probability mean‑reversion bounce.
• Hourly RSI: Likely printed oversold readings on the LOD flush, then weakly rebounded—consistent with a bear flag rather than a durable low.
• Stochastics (conceptual): Fast oscillators would be cycling out of overbought into a bearish regime, reinforcing continuation risk.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD likely crossed up during the 9/13–9/19 upswing; the 9/22 impulsive drop should flatten the MACD line and accelerate histogram toward zero, raising risk of a bearish cross if weakness persists another session.
• Hourly MACD is already negative with histogram showing shallow retracement during the last few hours—again consistent with a consolidation within a down move.

6. Ichimoku (daily, conceptual)

• Price is below Tenkan (≈ 9‑period midprice ~0.221), below Kijun (≈ 26‑period midprice ~0.218–0.220), and likely beneath or within a thin cloud projected near 0.22–0.23. The Tenkan < Kijun posture with price below both signals bearish conditions and resistance overhead at the 0.218–0.222 zone.

7. VWAP/anchored VWAP and intraday context

• Intraday action suggests day VWAP/anchored VWAP from the session open is well above last trade (~0.221 region), with repeated rejections on attempts to rally. Trading below session VWAP favors sells on bounces.
• The 0.214–0.216 shelf coincides with the intraday supply that formed after the breakdown, making it a high‑quality re‑test area for shorts.

8. Volume and volatility

• Today’s daily volume is heavy relative to the prior week (9/21 also high), indicating strong participation in the reversal. High‑volume down day after a 5‑day climb is classic distribution.
• ATR expansion: Today’s range (~0.2446 to ~0.2035 ≈ 0.041) exceeds the recent average daily range (~0.017–0.020), indicating a volatility regime shift. In expanded regimes, trend days often see follow‑through or at least a stop‑run in the direction of the impulse within the next session.

9. Fibonacci mapping (swing 9/9 low 0.2007 to 9/21 high 0.2554)

• 38.2%: ~0.2345; 50%: ~0.2281; 61.8%: ~0.2216; 78.6%: ~0.2124.
• Price sliced through 61.8% and 78.6% intraday, currently below 78.6%—a signal the move has largely retraced and momentum now leans to a full retest of the origin (0.2007).
• Expect liquidity magnets at 0.2000–0.2010 and secondary at 0.196–0.197 (below prior lows), where stop clusters likely reside.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Bear flag forming on the hourly between ~0.207–0.210 after an impulse leg down, with a measured move implication toward ~0.203/0.200 if it breaks lower.
• Failed upper‑band breakout (9/21) followed by an engulfing reversal (9/22) often triggers a 2–3 day corrective sequence.
• No confirmed bullish reversal pattern yet (no hammer, no bullish engulfing, no morning star) at the daily scale.

11. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• The 9/9–9/21 advance can be counted as a completed 5‑wave or A‑B‑C up structure. Today’s decline is likely wave A of a larger A‑B‑C down or the start of a new impulsive leg. In either case, a dead‑cat bounce (wave B) into 0.214–0.218 followed by another push to 0.200–0.197 (wave C) is a plausible 24–48h path.

12. Market profile/auction logic

• The 0.221–0.224 zone acted as value in prior sessions; today’s acceptance below that zone shifts value lower.
• Poorly auctioned area at 0.200–0.203 (gap‑like behavior intraday) is a likely destination to complete the auction and tag resting liquidity.

13. Probabilistic 24‑hour path forecast

• Base case (55–60%): Early session tests 0.207–0.210 flag support, breaks lower to sweep 0.203–0.200. Either a brief wick to 0.197–0.198 or a sticky hold near 0.200 follows, then a corrective bounce toward 0.212–0.216.
• Bearish extension (25–30%): Minimal bounce; direct drive lower through 0.200 to 0.196–0.197, consolidating 0.198–0.202.
• Bullish surprise (10–15%): Strong reclaim above 0.216 then 0.221 (61.8% retrace), opening room to 0.228–0.233 retest; this would neutralize the short setup. At present, order flow/structure does not favor this path without a catalyst.

14. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Confluence for short:
  • Price below SMA10/20 and below session VWAP;
  • Bear flag under 0.214–0.216 (broken support turned supply);
  • Momentum roll‑over (RSI/MACD), high‑volume distribution;
  • Fib confluence (61.8% and 78.6% failed), opening a magnet to the prior swing low around 0.200–0.201;
  • Bollinger behavior suggests mean‑reversion overshoot toward lower band in coming sessions.
• Optimal entry: Fade a bounce into the 0.214–0.216 supply shelf to improve risk‑reward rather than chase at 0.209.
• Targeting: Primary take‑profit into the stop/liq pocket at 0.200–0.201; optional runner for 0.197 if momentum persists.
• Invalidation (contextual): A decisive reclaim and hourly close above 0.221–0.222 (back over the 61.8% retrace and broken structure) would neutralize the short thesis and risk a squeeze toward 0.228–0.233.

Bottom line: Short the weak bounce. Expect a 24‑hour path that probes 0.203–0.200 with risk of a 0.197 liquidity sweep before any sustained recovery attempt.