WLFI: Buy the Pivot — Position for a 0.152–0.153 Retest Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish within a developing short-term uptrend; expect a buy-the-dip setup toward 0.145–0.146 with upside retest of 0.150–0.153.
• Rationale: Price sits above the 20D mean, momentum positive (daily RSI ~55, MACD > 0), intraday structure shows higher lows and a constructive consolidation near the daily pivot. Overhead supply at 0.150–0.153 remains, but repeated tests increase breakout odds.

Multi-timeframe structure and trend

• Higher timeframe (Daily): After an Oct 10 capitulation (intraday low ~0.0915) WLFI formed a base (0.115–0.13) and launched a recovery leg to 0.154–0.161 (Nov 10–12). Pullback closed around 0.145–0.147, now riding the 20D mean higher. This is a short-term uptrend inside a longer-term downtrend (price still likely below 50–100D MAs from the prior 0.20s area).
• Intraday (Hourly, last 24h): Constructive sequence of higher lows from ~0.1408 → 0.1425 → 0.1459, with a push to 0.1534 (16:00 UTC) then orderly mean reversion to ~0.147 near the daily pivot. No breakdown, suggesting acceptance above 0.145.

Key levels (confluence of S/R, pivots, and recent swing points)

• Immediate support: 0.1450–0.1460 (daily pivot zone, repeated intraday bids), then 0.1434–0.1442 (hourly congestion), 0.1408–0.1412 (prior intraday base), and 0.1387 (hourly swing low) / 20D SMA area.
• Immediate resistance: 0.1496–0.1503 (psychological 0.150, intraday supply), 0.1520–0.1534 (R1 / session high), then 0.1562 (Oct 29 swing high) and 0.159–0.162 (Nov 11–12 highs/cloud top zone).
• Classical daily pivots (based on 11/13 H/L/C ≈ 0.15414/0.14060/0.14517):
  • P ≈ 0.14663 (current price hovering just above)
  • R1 ≈ 0.15267 (intra hit 0.15336, rejection on first attempt)
  • S1 ≈ 0.13913; R2 ≈ 0.16018; S2 ≈ 0.13309

Moving averages and mean-reversion context

• 20D SMA ≈ 0.1357; price ≈ 0.147 > 20D: bullish short-term.
• 8D EMA (approx) rising and below price (~0.144–0.145), showing momentum support on dips.
• 50D SMA (approx, given September 0.20s) likely above price: longer-term trend still neutral-to-down, so respect overhead supply.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14D) ≈ 55: positive but not overbought; room to test 0.150–0.153 without forced mean reversion.
• Stochastic (daily, 14): ~70% of its range from the Nov 3 low to Nov 12 high, trending up—supports continuation, but watch for short-term overbought on intraday spikes.
• MACD (daily): Above zero with a flattening histogram after the pop; suggests a consolidation phase with a slight bullish tilt.
• Intraday momentum: 1H showed a momentum burst to 0.153 then mild bearish momentum divergence on the fade, followed by stabilization at 0.147–0.148; typical of a healthy pullback within an uptrend.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14D) (approx): ~0.012. Implies a 24h expected range band roughly 0.135–0.159 from current 0.147.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (approx): Mid ≈ 0.136; Upper ≈ 0.160; Lower ≈ 0.112. Price is between mid and upper band—constructive, with headroom before upper band tagging.
• Keltner Channels (approx, EMA20 ± 1.5×ATR): Price within upper half; breakouts often occur when price rides the upper KC. Currently consolidating just below upper half, favoring a measured push higher if volume returns.

Volume, VWAP, and flow

• Daily volume: Expansion on Nov 10 up-day; subsequent sessions lighter on pullbacks = bullish volume asymmetry.
• Intraday 16:00 UTC volume surge coincided with the day’s high (0.1534) and was absorbed without follow-through, then price based above 0.146—evidence of dip demand.
• Session VWAP (approx) clustering near 0.146–0.147; current price is at/just above VWAP = neutral-to-positive positioning. A retake and hold above 0.149 on volume would likely attract momentum flows.

Pattern recognition and market structure

• Possible bull flag/pennant: Leg from ~0.126 to ~0.154 (≈0.028) followed by a tight consolidation 0.145–0.150. Measured move on breakout above 0.153 projects toward 0.181 in a multi-session scenario; for 24h, a realistic extension is 0.153–0.156 (R1→R2 zone) if participation improves.
• Higher-low staircase on hourly charts remains intact; invalidation on a clean break below ~0.144.
• Candles: Today’s intraday prints show doji-like balance near the pivot after a thrust to R1—often a pause before another probe higher if support holds.

Fibonacci mapping

• From the 10/29 swing high (0.15625) to 11/3 swing low (0.11543): current price ≈ 0.147 sits near the 78.6% retrace (~0.1475)—a typical decision zone. Repeated tests of 0.149–0.153 increase the probability of a push through to 0.156 if the 0.145 shelf persists.
• Intraday micro swing (0.1459 → 0.1534): 50–61.8% pullback clustered at 0.149–0.150; current price is slightly below, indicating a potential spring if bids lift through 0.149.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price likely beneath or near the lower edge of the cloud (estimated 0.155–0.16) with Tenkan > Kijun and price > Tenkan: constructive but facing cloud resistance overhead (coincides with R2 zone). First target remains the cloud’s base (0.153–0.156) on any push.

Additional systems cross-check

• Parabolic SAR (daily, est) flipped long after Nov 10; dots likely trailing around mid-0.14s—supports buy-the-dip risk placement.
• OBV/MFI skew: Strong up-day accumulation on Nov 10 and muted distribution thereafter suggests net accumulation on dips.
• Market profile/POC (intraday): Value building ~0.146–0.148; acceptance here precedes value migration higher if 0.149–0.150 breaks on volume.

Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Hold 0.145–0.146, rotate up through 0.149 with a retest of 0.152–0.153 (R1 area). Close in upper half of the day’s range near 0.151–0.153 if volume improves.
• Bull extension (25%): Strong bid through 0.153 → 0.155–0.156 (R2/Cloud base). Requires rising volume and a firm hold above 0.150/0.151 on pullbacks.
• Bear risk (20%): Failure of 0.145; slip to 0.143–0.141 (hourly demand). Deeper fade toward 0.138 only if broader risk-off returns or volume spikes on the sell side.

Trade plan and risk

• Edge: Buy-the-dip at/near pivot support with defined risk just below the 0.145 shelf; target the R1 band where supply first reappeared.
• Proposed execution: Buy limit ~0.1458–0.1460; TP ~0.1530; optional protective stop ~0.1438 (not required by prompt, included for risk context). Reward ≈ +0.0072 (+4.9%); risk ≈ −0.0020 (−1.4%); R:R ≈ 3.6:1 if filled at 0.1458 and stopped at 0.1438; even with slippage, >2:1.
• Invalidation: Hourly close < 0.144 or heavy-volume rejection at 0.149–0.150 without absorption.

Bottom line

• Price action, momentum, and positioning favor a tactical long from 0.145–0.146 aiming for a 0.152–0.153 retest over the next 24 hours, with scope to 0.155–0.156 on volume expansion. A break and hold below 0.145 would negate and open 0.143–0.141.