WLFI33251: Coiling Above the 50% Fib — Set for a Pop Toward 0.155

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish with a constructive base at 0.141–0.143 and a likely retest of 0.148–0.150; breakout extension potential to 0.154–0.156.
• Setup: Buy the dip near the 50% Fibonacci retracement and daily pivot (0.142–0.144) or hold for a momentum push through 0.148–0.150.
• Risk: A clean break below 0.141 opens 0.1386 then 0.1355 (61.8% Fib). Liquidity is uneven; use limits.

Price action and market structure

• Higher timeframe context (daily): From Sep highs (~0.46) a persistent downtrend transitioned into a base after the Oct 10 capitulation (low ~0.0915, close ~0.1251). A new impulse started from the Nov 3–4 trough (0.115–0.114) to Nov 10 spike (high ~0.1681), followed by a shallow retracement. Structure is now a bullish pullback within a still-below-Cloud environment (longer-term trend down, short-term momentum up).
• Recent closes: Last 20-day closes average ~0.1352 (20SMA). Current 0.1442 trades above 10SMA (~0.1372) and 20SMA (~0.1352) but remains below an estimated 50SMA (>0.16); short-term trend up inside a longer-term downtrend.
• Intraday (hourly, Nov 15): Session put in a swing high ~0.1500 and defended lows ~0.1379–0.1413. Late-day pullback settled near 0.1442, slightly above the daily pivot.

Key levels (confluence driven)

• Support
  • 0.1417–0.1432: 50% Fib of 0.1154→0.1681 = 0.14175, daily pivot P ≈ 0.14388, repeated intraday reaction zone; strong near-term shelf.
  • 0.1386–0.1391: Hourly inflection; aligns with local VA low; first downside objective on failure.
  • 0.1355: 61.8% Fib and 20SMA vicinity; stronger demand zone.
• Resistance
  • 0.1480–0.1503: 38.2% Fib ≈ 0.1480, intraday highs, and R1 pivot ≈ 0.1503; primary cap.
  • 0.154–0.156: Nov 10 post-spike supply and R2 pivot ≈ 0.1564; breakout objective.
  • 0.159–0.168: Prior swing highs; stretch targets if momentum accelerates.

Momentum and trend indicators

• Moving averages
  • 10SMA (~0.1372) > 20SMA (~0.1352): Short-term bullish crossover already in place; price riding above both.
  • 50SMA estimated >0.16: Price still below, consistent with medium-term downtrend; rallies likely face supply near mid-0.15s.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): EMA12 has risen above EMA26 post-Nov 10, histogram positive but flattening; suggests digestion, not reversal.
• RSI(14) (daily, qualitative): Likely mid-50s; no overbought risk, leaves room for an upside attempt.
• ADX(14) (qualitative ~18–22): Trend strength modest; breakouts require volume confirmation.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) ≈ 0.012–0.013: Defines a typical daily swing of 8–9%. Current range between 0.141–0.150 sits comfortably within one ATR; a push to 0.154–0.156 would be a 0.010–0.012 extension from 0.144–0.146 base—achievable in 24h if volume returns.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~0.135; price is above mid and below upper band (~0.159). Bandwidth is narrowing from the Nov 10 expansion—classic powder-keg for a follow-on move once consolidation completes.

Volume and flow

• Volume spike Nov 10 (breakout day), followed by declining volume on pullback—bull-flag textbook behavior. OBV (qualitatively) up since Nov 4, flattening over the last three sessions; no clear distribution signature.
• Hourly prints show larger activity around 02:00 and 18:00 UTC at higher prices, implying institutions defended mid-0.14s while probing 0.148–0.150 supply.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price > Tenkan (≈ 0.142) and > Kijun (≈ 0.135), with cloud still overhead (~0.155–0.16). This is the classic pre-cloud test phase; the first test is often sold into (0.154–0.156), but the initial advance from Kijun support favors another attempt higher.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• From 0.1154 → 0.1681: price has respected the 50% retrace (0.1418) and stalled at 38.2% (0.1480). A hold above 0.142 biases a measured A→B equals C→D swing to ~0.154–0.156 (aligns with R2 and upper supply).

Classical patterns and candles

• Bull flag/ascending triangle: Flat-to-slightly rising base 0.141–0.143 with repeated taps of 0.148–0.150 suggests an ascending structure. A decisive hourly close >0.150 unlocks 0.154–0.156.
• Candlestick character today is small-bodied with wicks—indecision at support rather than distribution at highs.

Pivot map (from today’s H/L/C)

• P ≈ 0.14388; R1 ≈ 0.15031; S1 ≈ 0.13776; R2 ≈ 0.15644; S2 ≈ 0.13133. Current price is fractionally above P, favoring an R1 test next if support holds.

Alternative tools cross-check

• VWAP (session, qualitative): Likely ~0.146; late session below VWAP is consistent with a routine end-of-day fade, not with trend change.
• Renko/Heikin-Ashi (conceptual): Recent bricks/bars transitioned green post-Nov 10, with contracting body size during pullback—continuation-friendly.
• Volume profile: A developing high-volume node around 0.142–0.145 should act as a magnet/support; low-volume pocket from 0.150 to 0.154 could enable a fast move if 0.150 breaks.

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Bullish base-then-break (60%): Hold above 0.142–0.143 → rotate to 0.148–0.150 → momentum pop to 0.154–0.156 where first profit-taking likely reappears.
• Range churn (30%): 0.141–0.148 chop; fades near 0.148, wicks into 0.142–0.143; net unchanged.
• Bearish break (10%): Lose 0.141 on volume → 0.1386 test; if weak bids, overshoot to 0.1355 (61.8% Fib) where stronger buyers likely reside.

Trade plan and execution notes

• Entry logic: Prefer a limit buy on a routine dip into 0.1425–0.1432 (confluence of 50% Fib and daily pivot zone) to skew R:R. Alternative confirmation entry: buy a breakout on an hourly close >0.150 with strong volume.
• Profit target: 0.154–0.156 zone aligns with R2, upper supply, and measured move; set TP at 0.1548 for high fill probability before heavy supply.
• Invalidation/stop (notional): Below 0.1386 hourly close, or a hard stop ~0.1390 to avoid a deeper run to 0.1355. That keeps risk roughly 0.004–0.005 for a 0.011–0.013 reward (≈2.2–2.7R).
• Order type: Limit to mitigate slippage; liquidity is patchy (several hours with minimal prints).

Bottom line

• The confluence of 50% Fib support, position above 10/20SMAs, constructive OBV, and a capped but thinning supply at 0.148–0.150 favors a tactical long for a push into 0.154–0.156 within 24 hours. Manage risk tightly under 0.141.