WLFI Spring to Strength: Aiming for Pivot R2 at 0.165 on Bull-Flag Continuation

Step-by-step multi-timeframe technical diagnosis (daily ➜ hourly)

1. Market structure and context

• Big picture (Daily): After the October 10 capitulation (down to ~0.125), WLFI33251 carved out a broad base through late Oct–mid Nov, with a sequence of higher lows since the early-Nov bottom (~0.115–0.116). The close on 2025-11-21 at 0.144981 printed a strong bullish outside day versus 2025-11-20 (low 0.1299, close 0.1314), on elevated volume—classic signs of a “spring”/sign-of-strength in Wyckoff terms. Today’s action extends that thrust, placing price back toward the top of the recent range.
• Near-term (Hourly 11/22): Momentum leg from ~0.141–0.145 into 0.156–0.158, consolidating just under intraday highs (0.1587). Price is printing a shallow bull flag over the last few hours, with higher lows and modest cooling of momentum rather than outright distribution.

2. Support/Resistance mapping (confluence-driven)

• Immediate resistances: 0.1587 (today’s high); 0.159–0.162 (cluster from 11/11–11/12 highs, momentum pivot); 0.1652 (Pivot R2 from 11/21’s H/L/C); 0.1681 (11/10 spike high). These are the realistic 24h upside waypoints.
• Supports: 0.1551 (Pivot R1 from 11/21, now potential S/R flip), 0.153–0.154 (hourly structure shelf), 0.150–0.151 (23.6% Fib of 11/20→11/22 impulse and former range cap), 0.1483–0.1490 (38.2% Fib confluence across swing definitions), 0.1450 (50% Fib of the 11/20→11/22 leg), then 0.1418–0.1423 (61.8% Fib/AM low zone).

3. Momentum, trend, and volatility regime

• Moving averages (Daily, approximated): Short MAs (5–10 day) have curled up and likely crossed above the 20-day; price stands above both. The 50-day still lags but is flattening. This configuration favors long setups on pullbacks.
• RSI: Daily RSI has pushed out of mid-40s into mid-/upper-50s, consistent with early uptrend phase; Hourly RSI made new highs during the 0.1587 print and is now cooling in the 55–65 band—classic consolidation at elevated momentum. No material bearish divergence yet on the 1h; any micro divergence is shallow.
• MACD: Daily MACD positive cross and rising histogram since early/mid Nov; Hourly MACD positive but histogram has begun to compress (flag behavior rather than a reversal signal).
• ADX/DMI (qualitative): Trend strength ticking higher, but not in runaway mode. Room remains to extend toward next resistance before trend exhaustion.
• ATR/volatility: Daily ATR expanded on 11/21’s outside day and remains elevated; intraday ATR suggests 0.006–0.012 daily reach is feasible. That puts 0.165–0.168 within realistic 24h range if momentum resumes.

4. Bands, channels, and mean reversion gauges

• Bollinger Bands (Daily): Price is near/just outside the upper band after 11/21’s thrust, which often leads to consolidation then continuation if pullbacks hold the 20-day mid-band area (currently ~0.139–0.141 by estimate). Intraday bands on 1h are compressing—bull flag behavior.
• Keltner Channels (Hourly qualitative): Price riding the upper Keltner earlier; now tagging the midline on dips—buy-the-dip conditions within a trend day that has paused.
• Linear regression channel (Hourly qualitative): Slope positive; price consolidates near upper half of channel.

5. Volume analytics

• Daily profile: 11/21 exhibited a wide-range bullish outside day on high volume, resetting the short-term trend. 11/22 hours with the biggest pushes (14:00–20:00 UTC) coincided with stronger volumes—healthy demand on upticks.
• OBV (qualitative): Turning higher since early/mid Nov and accelerating post-11/21—accumulation bias.
• VWAP (11/22 session): Current price sits above intraday VWAP, and pullbacks have been defended near/above it—bull control intraday.

6. Fibonacci mapping (two relevant swings)

• Swing A (macro micro low to high): 11/21 low 0.11564 to 11/22 high 0.15871. Retrace levels: 23.6% ~0.1485, 38.2% ~0.1423, 50% ~0.1372, 61.8% ~0.1321. AM dip probed the 38.2% area and was bought—constructive.
• Swing B (latest impulse): 11/20 close 0.13141 to 11/22 high 0.15871. Retrace levels: 23.6% ~0.1523, 38.2% ~0.1483, 50% ~0.1451, 61.8% ~0.1419. Current consolidation above 23.6% is typical of strong trends; ideal dip buys cluster near 0.152–0.151 (front-running by strong hands) and into 0.149–0.150 (deeper but healthy).

7. Ichimoku (Daily qualitative)

• Price above Tenkan and Kijun; Tenkan > Kijun or close to flipping; span A could soon cross above span B (kumo twist risk-on). Lagging span likely interacting above price—early bull phase confirmation. Pullbacks toward the Tenkan (approx low 0.14s) are expected to find bids if regime holds.

8. Pivot points (Classic from 11/21 H/L/C)

• PP ≈ 0.13538; R1 ≈ 0.15511; R2 ≈ 0.16525; S1 ≈ 0.12524. Price has cleared R1 and is consolidating barely above it; the next magnet is R2 ~0.1653 if momentum resumes.

9. Candlestick and pattern read

• Daily: 11/21 bullish outside day/engulfing on high volume—a textbook reversal + follow-through setup.
• Hourly: Tight bull flag near highs; shallow dips with immediate buy responses. No topping pattern (no evening star / bearish engulfing at the 1h level yet). Micro upper-wick prints into 0.158–0.159 indicate supply, but absorption has held so far.

10. Wyckoff/Elliott/Market profile heuristics

• Wyckoff: Spring (11/21 liquidity sweep to 0.1156) → Sign of Strength → Backing up action (today’s flag). Next expected phase: continuation toward the top of the prior value area (0.162–0.168).
• Elliott (lightweight): Completing wave 3 of a minor impulse since 11/20, with the current flag as wave 4; a terminal thrust toward 0.165–0.168 would fit as wave 5 before a fuller retrace.
• Market profile/value: Value re-established above 0.145. If price holds above 0.153–0.155 (R1 flip), the value area likely shifts upward, inviting responsive buying on dips.

11. Risk diagnostics and invalidation

• Invalidation for bulls intraday: sustained break back below 0.150–0.151 zone (Fib 23.6%/structure shelf) turns the setup from trend-continuation to deeper mean reversion. A decisive loss of 0.145 (50% Fib of latest impulse and prior breakout shelf) would negate the near-term long thesis and risk a revisit of 0.142/0.141.
• Liquidity watch: 0.158–0.159 is the local liquidity pool; a quick sweep and reclaim is bullish. A hard rejection with rising volume and lower highs would warn of a short-term top.

12. Strategy synthesis (24h outlook)

• Base case (60%): Hold above 0.153–0.155, resolve the flag upward, test 0.1587; on a clean breakout, extend into 0.162 then 0.165 (R2). Session close in the 0.160–0.165 zone likely if momentum holds.
• Alt case (30%): Deeper pullback first to 0.151–0.150 (Fib confluence/previous cap), find buyers, then rally later to retest 0.158–0.162 by end of window.
• Bear tail (10%): Fail R1 flip, lose 0.150 and 0.145 in sequence on expanding sell volume; retrace toward 0.142. This requires a sharp sentiment shift; current data does not favor it but it’s the invalidation path.

13. Trade plan logic

• Bias: Bullish continuation. The strongest confluence targets 0.1652–0.1655 (Pivot R2 cluster with prior supply zone) within 24h.
• Entry optimization: Given current 0.15568 (just above R1), the optimal risk/reward favors a buy-limit on a shallow dip into 0.153–0.154 (R1 retest + Fib 23.6% from the latest impulse). If no dip materializes, breakout continuation toward 0.1589–0.1592 is an alternate trigger, but the limit-dip entry offers superior R multiple.
• Profit target: 0.1652–0.1655 (R2 and local supply). That’s ~6.5–7.5% from the preferred dip entry, within 1x daily ATR given volatility expansion.
• Risk note (not part of order fields): A protective stop for risk control would typically sit below 0.1495 (beneath Fib 38.2% and structure), or more conservative below 0.145. This keeps reward:risk attractive (≈2–3:1) depending on stop selection.

Bottom line

• The combination of a daily bullish outside day, clearing of R1, constructive intraday flag, positive OBV/VWAP behavior, and clear upside magnets at 0.162 and 0.165 argues to Buy dips. Expect a test of 0.1587 and, if broken, a drive toward 0.165 (R2) within the next 24 hours.