WLFI poised for an upside push: Buying the 0.1500 pullback for a run at 0.160–0.161

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Bias: Bullish-with-caution over the next 24 hours. Baseline path looks like a grind higher toward 0.158–0.161 with pullbacks into 0.149–0.150 getting bought.
• Rationale: Price reclaimed and holds above key short-term averages (5/10/20 SMA), momentum is positive (RSI mid-60s, MACD improving), recent breakout above a neckline area (~0.145–0.147) is being respected on retests, and intraday compression around 0.15 suggests an imminent range expansion with upside skew.
• Predicted 24h range: Base 0.148–0.161; stretch 0.146–0.163.

Step-by-step technical analysis

1. Trend structure (multi-timeframe)

• Higher time frame (daily, last ~2.5 months): From a September downtrend and an October capitulation (10/10 intraday low ~0.0915), price built a base and is now in a recovery uptrend of lower degree. Successive higher lows since 11/20 (0.1299), 11/21 (long lower wick low 0.1156, reclaimed), 11/22 (0.13798), 11/23 (~0.1472 intraday) indicate buyers are stepping in earlier.
• Medium-term trend filter: Current price 0.1512 is below the older 50D context (implied in the 0.16–0.17 area from October’s prints) but above 20D SMA, signaling a transition from bear to neutral-bull. Expect resistance at 0.158–0.162 (prior swing supply, near upper band and pivot R1).
• Intraday (hourly, last 24h): A clean series of higher lows and marginally higher highs; price oscillates 0.147–0.152 with a gentle upward channel, suggesting accumulation/mark-up into resistance.

2. Moving averages (SMA/EMA confluence)

• 5D SMA ≈ 0.1436; 10D SMA ≈ 0.1424; 20D SMA ≈ 0.1374. Spot (0.1512) > all three, with the 5D and 10D curling up and 20D flattening and starting to turn. This alignment is consistent with early-stage uptrend continuation.
• Short EMAs (implied, not computed explicitly) would be above long EMAs given the last 4 closes > 20D SMA; MACD section below supports a bullish cross and positive histogram.
• Takeaway: Momentum regime has flipped positive on the short-term; pullbacks toward the 10D/20D cluster (0.142–0.137) are likely demand zones in a multi-day lens, with a nearer-term pivot around 0.149–0.150 (see pivot points).

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) approximation ≈ 64–65: bullish but not overbought. Plenty of room to push toward upper 60s/low 70s before mean reversion pressure intensifies. Interprets as trend-follow continuation favored on dips.
• Stochastic (14) approximation: ~80–83% as spot sits near the upper of the 14-day range (LL ≈ 0.1156, HH ≈ 0.1588). This argues for “buy dips” rather than “chase strength”, consistent with a pullback entry near 0.150.
• MACD (12-26-9 qualitative): Short EMA has likely crossed above long EMA around 11/21–11/22 with histogram turning positive. A rising, but still modest, histogram supports a grind-up scenario vs. explosive rally unless resistance gives way decisively.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) anchored to 20D SMA ≈ 0.1374. Est. σ ≈ 0.012–0.013 given recent dispersion; hence upper band ≈ 0.162–0.164, lower band ≈ 0.111–0.113. Current 0.1512 sits below the upper band, allowing upside travel toward 0.160–0.163 before band pressure intensifies.
• ATR(14) daily (qualitative): ~0.013–0.016 based on recent high–low ranges (with one outlier 11/10). This projects a reasonable 1-day path width of ~±0.015, aligning with a 0.146–0.166 probabilistic envelope. Our target sits inside this envelope.

5. Market structure, patterns, and levels

• Inverse head-and-shoulders (daily) outline: Left shoulder ~0.129–0.132 (mid/late Oct), head ~0.1069 (11/04), right shoulder ~0.129–0.132 (11/20). Neckline 0.145–0.147. Breakout above the neckline occurred on 11/22 with a soft intraday retest 11/23 around 0.147–0.148 that held. Measured move: Neckline (0.146) – Head (0.107) ≈ 0.039. Target ≈ 0.185 in a multi-session horizon. For 24h, expecting progression toward intermediate resistances: 0.158–0.161 (first cap), then 0.168 (swing high 11/10) on extension days.
• Candlesticks: 11/21 printed a long lower-tail reversal (hammer-like) closing strong, followed by 11/22 continuation and 11/23 inside/neutral consolidation near highs, a constructive pause.
• Support/resistance map:
  • Supports: 0.150 pivot zone; 0.1486 intraday shelf; 0.1470 neckline retest; deeper 0.1450/0.1423 daily closes; 0.138/0.137; 0.131–0.133 fib cluster.
  • Resistances: 0.1526 (local intraday high), 0.1561 (11/22 hourly), 0.1588 (11/22 daily high), 0.1617–0.162 (upper band/R1 vicinity), 0.1681 (11/10 swing high).

6. Pivot points (Floor method using 11/22 H/L/C)

• H=0.158777, L=0.137978, C=0.152105
• P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.14962
• R1 = 2P − L ≈ 0.16126; S1 = 2P − H ≈ 0.14046
• R2 = P + (H − L) ≈ 0.17042; S2 = P − (H − L) ≈ 0.12882 Interpretation: Spot trades above P (bullish). R1 at ~0.1613 aligns with our 24h target zone and the Bollinger upper vicinity—likely first supply wall.

7. Volume and participation

• Daily volume expansion on up days (11/21–11/22) vs. prior days suggests accumulation. The sharp 11/21 intraday rejection of sub-0.13 levels (low 0.1156) with a strong close 0.1450 is a classic demand-surge tell. 11/22 maintained elevated volume with a higher close. This improves confidence in the neckline breakout’s validity.
• Hourly tapes on 11/23 show controlled, low-volatility buying—typical pre-breakout compression. Even modest volume upticks near 0.151–0.152 are nudging price higher.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price likely above Tenkan (~9-period mean around mid-0.145s) and above Kijun (~26-period mean around upper-0.13s to ~0.14). A bullish TK alignment plus price above both indicates trend support below. Cloud resistance likely sits near 0.155–0.162; a clean close above ~0.156–0.161 should open a path to test 0.168.

9. Fibonacci context

• Upswing: 11/04 low 0.1069 to 11/10 high 0.168 -> 61.8% retrace ≈ 0.133. Price respected 0.131–0.133 on 11/20 and reversed, reinforcing that zone as structural support. Current push is a typical Wave-3/5 or C continuation toward prior swing highs.

10. Elliott-wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 11/04→11/10 thrust. Wave 2: 11/10→11/20 correction to 0.131. Wave 3: 11/20→ongoing. In this framing, 0.158–0.161 is a reasonable subwave target over 24h with 0.168 on follow-through days.

11. Regression and channel

• A linear regression fit from 11/20 close upward shows positive slope; price rides the upper half of the channel after 11/22. The current consolidation near the channel mean suggests energy for another leg up if 0.1526 breaks.

12. Risk, scenarios, and probabilities (qualitative)

• Base case (≈60%): Gradual drift up; test 0.156–0.161; day closes near 0.158. Dips to 0.149–0.150 bought.
• Bear case (≈25%): Failure at 0.152–0.154 triggers a pullback toward 0.148–0.147 (neckline retest). As long as 0.145 holds on a closing basis, bullish structure intact.
• Tail (≈15%): Sharp spike through 0.161 with momentum into 0.163–0.166; or a stop-run to 0.146 before reversal higher.

Synthesis and trade plan

• Confluence: Above rising short MAs, bullish RSI/MACD, neckline breakout with successful retest, VB/ATR supportive of a push toward R1/upper band. Resistance nearby argues against chasing; best practice is to buy a controlled pullback to the intraday pivot band.
• Execution: Enter on a dip near 0.1500 (just above daily pivot P=0.1496 and intraday support). Target the confluence resistance band 0.160–0.162 (pivot R1 and upper band). If you use a stop (not required here), logical risk sits below 0.147 (neckline), e.g., 0.1460, yielding a favorable reward-to-risk (~3:1) for a 0.0108–0.0120 upside vs. ~0.004–0.005 downside.

24-hour outlook

• Expect a continuation grind higher. Key triggers: A 1h/4h close above 0.1526 opens 0.1561, then 0.1588–0.1613. Failure to hold 0.1495 on pullbacks would postpone the move and increase odds of a deeper neckline test at 0.147.

Decision

• Buy (Long) on a pullback toward 0.1500; take profit into 0.1608 where initial supply is expected.