XAUT’s 4.1k Breakout Retest: Setting Up a Dip-Buy for a Push to 4.16k

Executive summary

• Instrument: Tether Gold (XAUT)
• Current price: 4097.66
• Regime: Post-breakout consolidation above key resistance; bullish bias while 4060–4100 holds
• 24h outlook: Buy pullback toward 4087–4093 for continuation into 4148–4165; invalidation on daily close back below ~4060

1. Market structure and price action

• Higher timeframe trend: Since mid-August, XAUT advanced from ~3340 to a peak ~4390 (Oct 16), then corrected to ~3929 (Oct 29), and carved a multi-week range (~3920–4045). The Nov 10 breakout close at 4106.6 pushed price back above the former range top, shifting bias bullish.
• Current state: After tagging 4130–4133 intraday on Nov 11, price faded to ~4091 and is stabilizing ~4098. This is a classic breakout-retest behavior: prior resistance (4085–4105) acting as support.
• Intraday microstructure (hourly): Lower highs from 4133 → 4130 → 4130 → 4111, but buyers defended 4091–4097 repeatedly and reclaimed the 4095–4098 pivot into the current hour. Looks like a bull flag/ascending consolidation perched on new support.

2. Key levels (confluence map)

• Supports: 4091–4098 (intraday pivot), 4060–4065 (Oct 26 close area; intraday floor), 4036–4043 (range top cluster: Oct 30 close 4036, Oct 12 high 4057), 3990–4005 (round/cluster), 3929 (Oct 29 swing low)
• Resistances: 4128–4135 (intraday supply), 4146 (Oct 23 swing high), 4159–4162 (50% retrace of 4390→3929), 4214–4220 (61.8% retrace / prior daily supply), 4360–4390 (major supply)
• Fibonacci (from 4390 high to 3929 low): 38.2% ≈ 4105 (current pivot), 50% ≈ 4159.5 (near-term target), 61.8% ≈ 4214 (secondary target)

3. Moving averages (daily; approximations from recent closes)

• 20D SMA ≈ 4045–4055: Price above, confirming near-term bullish momentum.
• 50D SMA ≈ 3930–3950: Price clearly above; trend positive.
• 200D SMA ≈ 3700–3750: Long-term uptrend intact.
• Alignment: Bullish stack (price > 20SMA > 50SMA > 200SMA). Pullbacks to 4050–4060 likely get dip-bought while this stack holds.

4. Momentum

• RSI(14) daily: Estimated 56–60. Neutral-to-bullish, with room to push higher before overbought. No negative divergence versus last week’s lift.
• Stochastics daily: Mid-high zone; not pinned, consistent with a consolidating up leg rather than a blow-off.
• Hourly RSI: Cooled into mid-40s–50s on today’s pullback; supports a new impulse if resistance at 4128–4135 yields.

5. MACD (daily)

• MACD line crossed above signal line around Nov 6–8; histogram positive and stabilizing. Bullish momentum regime with a mild pause over the past two sessions; favors continuation while price holds above ~4060–4080.

6. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~110–140. A 1.5–3.0% daily swing is typical in this phase. A 24h move from 4098 toward 4150–4160 is well within ATR.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (est.): Mid-band ~4050; upper ~4180–4200; lower ~3900–3920. Price is between mid and upper band, not overbought; continuation room to the upper band near-term.
• Keltner Channels: Price near upper channel on up days; no squeeze—trend-following conditions persist.

7. Volume and participation

• Breakout session (Nov 10) printed strong volume versus prior week, confirming the move above 4.05k. The pullback today is on lighter relative volume vs the breakout, typical of a healthy retest.
• OBV (conceptual): Rising since Nov 1; accumulation footprints visible with stronger volume on up-days than on down-days.

8. Ichimoku (daily; approximations)

• Price above cloud (Kumo): Bullish regime.
• Tenkan-sen ≈ 4070–4080; Kijun-sen ≈ 4035–4045. Tenkan > Kijun and price above both—bullish. Flat Kijun near 4040 can attract price on deeper dips, but as long as Tenkan holds/recaptures, trend continuation favored.
• Lagging Span likely above price and cloud: Confirms bullish backdrop.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Range breakout (4k–4.05k) on Nov 10 followed by a shallow bull flag/handle over 4090–4130. Measured move from flag pole (~3977→4107 ≈ 130) projects ~4235 from the breakout base; near-term we respect nearer resistances (4159/4214) within 24–72h.
• Cup-and-handle variant: Reclaim of the 4.05k lip with a modest handle under 4.15k. Pattern not fully confirmed until 4146–4160 clears on a closing basis.

10. Mean reversion and probability framing

• With price modestly above the 20D SMA and below upper Bollinger, the path of least resistance is up, provided 4085–4100 holds. Mean-reversion risk rises only if 4060 fails decisively intraday and especially on a daily close.
• Scenario weights (next 24h):
  • Bullish continuation after retest to 4160: 60%
  • Range-bound 4090–4135 chop: 25%
  • Bearish failure back to 4060/4040: 15%

11. Multi-method confluence

• Bullish: Price > 20/50/200 SMA; MACD positive; RSI mid-high with capacity; breakout-retest structure; Fibonacci 38.2% (4105) acting as pivot; OBV accumulation.
• Caution: Immediate overhead supply 4128–4146 and 50% retrace at 4159 may stall first attempt; expect a dip-buy setup rather than chasing into resistance.

12. Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Buy the dip into 4087–4093 (prior micro support and undercut of the 4105 fib pivot) with a target into the 4158–4165 band (50% retrace and local resistance). If momentum accelerates, extension to 4210–4215 is the secondary objective beyond 24h.
• Invalidation (risk management guidance, not an order): A decisive break and hourly acceptance below ~4060 would negate the immediate setup and risks a drift to 4040/4036; a prudent stop would be set slightly below 4058–4060 in practice.

13. Timing cues

• Entry trigger: Look for a shallow pullback to ~4091 with stabilizing order flow (slowing downside momentum on the hourly, RSI > 40 and curling; reclaim of 4095 afterward is ideal).
• Breakout trigger (alternative): Momentum add-on above 4146 with strong volume, targeting 4160 then 4210. Primary plan remains buy-the-dip for better R:R.

14. 24-hour price path projection

• Base case path: 4091 test → rebound to 4128–4135 → breakout probe 4146 → tag 4159–4162. If 4146 rejects on first try, brief consolidation 4115–4135 before a second attempt.

Conclusion

• The weight of evidence favors a Buy-the-dip setup. The 4105 Fibonacci pivot is pivotal; holding above it should unlock a push toward 4160 within the next session. Risk is controlled by the 4060–4040 shelf.