XAUT: Buy the Dip at 4110–4120 for a Rebound Toward 4215 in the Next 24 Hours

Instrument: XAUT (Tether Gold) Timestamp context: 2025-11-13 22:00 UTC. Current price ~4151.61. Data windows used: Daily OHLCV from 2025-08-16; intraday (hourly) for 2025-11-12–11-13.

Executive summary

• Primary trend: Up since early November with higher highs and higher lows; price remains above short- and medium-term moving averages.
• Current state: Pullback from intraday high 4222 toward 4150–4130 support cluster; testing shallow Fibonacci retracement in an established upswing.
• Base case (next 24h): Range trade with bullish tilt: initial softness toward 4110–4120, then rebound to 4195–4215. Probability-weighted drift ends near 4185–4200 if supports hold.
• Key levels: Support 4153 (23.6% Fib), 4110 (38.2% Fib and daily S1), 4090–4108 pivot zone; Resistance 4188–4222 (recent intraday supply), 4232/4251 (R2), 4390 (major swing high).
• Tactical stance: Buy the dip into the 4110–4120 demand with a target into 4210–4220.

1. Trend and moving averages (multi-timeframe)

• Daily 20-SMA: ~4024 (approx). Price 4152 > 20-SMA by ~3.1%, signaling bullish short-term trend continuation.
• Daily 50-SMA (approximation): Likely around 4000–4050 given the October surge and early-Nov base; price above 50-SMA confirms medium-term uptrend.
• Daily 100/200-SMA (inferred): Both below price, given months-long rise from low-3300s to current >4100; multi-MA stack is bullish (price > 20 > 50 > 200 expected).
• EMA structure: 8/21-EMA crossover would be positive since the breakout on Nov 10–12; price is slightly stretched vs fast EMA, so shallow mean reversion is normal.
• Conclusion: Trend bias remains up; pullbacks are buyable while above 4090–4110.

2. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): Upper neutral to bullish (approx 58–62). Strong push 11/10–11/12 elevated RSI, today’s pullback eased it from overbought risk.
• Stochastic(14,3,3) daily (est.): %K ≈ 76 (using 3929–4222 range), not overbought; room to re-test highs after a brief dip.
• MACD daily: Positive and above signal with expanding histogram earlier in the week; minor intraday pause today does not negate daily momentum.
• Williams %R / CCI: Would have rolled off extreme readings today; consistent with a buy-the-dip context if supports hold.
• Takeaway: Momentum cooled intraday but remains constructive on daily timeframe; favors continuation higher after dip absorption.

3. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Mid-band ~4024; estimated upper band ~4160–4170 given recent SD. Price probed and slightly exceeded upper band (band-walk attempt) and then reverted. Current ~4152 sits near/just under upper band, suggesting either a brief consolidation or a controlled pullback to mid-upper band zone (4110–4160).
• Keltner Channels: Price recently at/above upper Keltner, consistent with trend thrust; today’s fade resets overextension.
• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~110–130. Expect next 24h true range in roughly 100–150. Implies feasible swings between 4110 and 4220 without regime change.

4. Market structure, price action, and pattern recognition

• Swing structure: Nov 4 swing low 3929 to Nov 13 intraday high 4222 with higher lows along the way (3929 → 3968 → 3997 → 4106 → 4124 → 4171). Today’s LTF pullback to 4132 preserves the sequence and maintains a constructive structure above 4110.
• Candles: Today shaping into a daily upper-wick candle (near a shooting-star look) after tagging 4222. That often invites a 1–2 bar dip toward first support (4110 ±) before another attempt higher, especially when trend is up.
• Intraday 1H: Europe/US session rejection near 4220; sell program down to 4132; rebound to 4150s. 1H sequence shows a micro down-channel inside a daily uptrend—typical bull-flag dynamics if 4110–4130 holds.
• Channels/trendlines: Ascending daily trendline from early Nov sits roughly above 4040–4060 now. Price is well above it; primary structure intact.

5. Fibonacci mapping (recent impulse 3929 → 4222)

• 23.6%: 4152.8 (currently trading around this level). First-line pullback support.
• 38.2%: 4110.1 (confluent with daily S1 and prior breakout retest zone). Key buy zone.
• 50%: 4075.5 (secondary cushion; below here short-term momentum would be dented but not broken).
• 61.8%: 4040.9 (trendline and Bollinger mid/upper confluence nearby; only tested on deeper shakeouts).
• Interpretation: Price reacting precisely at 23.6%; if it slips, 38.2% ~4110 is magnet/strong demand. Expect bounce attempts from 4110–4120.

6. Support/Resistance and pivots

• Horizontal support: 4130–4155 (23.6% Fib and intraday shelf); 4110–4115 (38.2% Fib + daily S1 + prior resistance turned support); 4090–4100 (pivot cluster from Oct 25/Nov 10–11/Nov 22 lows); 4041–4076 (61.8–50% zone).
• Resistance: 4188–4222 (intraday supply and prior high test); 4232 (mid-October swing area); 4251 (R2); 4390 (major Oct 16 high).
• Classic daily pivots using 11/12 H/L/C (H=4188.50, L=4085.99, C=4170.69):
  • Pivot P ≈ 4148.39
  • R1 ≈ 4210.80, R2 ≈ 4250.90
  • S1 ≈ 4108.29, S2 ≈ 4047.28 Price now slightly above P; typical intraday path oscillates between P and R1 after a pullback—aligns with buy-the-dip targeting R1/R2.
• Camarilla (approx with C=4170.69, H-L=102.51): H3 ≈ 4180.1, L3 ≈ 4161.3. Price dipped below L3 earlier and reverted—often a mean-reversion cue back toward H3.

7. Volume and money flow

• Volume spikes: Notable expansion Nov 10–12 on up-days indicates accumulation on breakout. Today’s intraday selling volumes were moderate vs recent upside sessions—no evidence of distribution climax.
• OBV/CMF/ADL (qualitative): Upward bias since Nov 10 indicates net inflows; today’s dip did not meaningfully reverse those flows.
• VWAP (today): Likely ~4175–4185. Price under VWAP suggests intraday sellers in control short-term, but a VWAP reversion is common if structural support holds.

8. Ichimoku (1H and Daily, qualitative)

• 1H: Price near/just below Tenkan (~4177) but above/around Kijun (~4140–4150). Cloud likely supportive beneath current price. A recapture of Tenkan/VWAP would trigger momentum back to 4195–4215.
• Daily: Price above cloud and lines; pullback toward conversion/base lines is routine in trends; bias up while >4090–4110 zone.

9. Donchian and breakout context

• Donchian 20-day high ~4222, low ~3929; price near upper quartile. Range expansion began early November; today’s pause doesn’t negate breakout integrity. A close >4222 would confirm continuation; until then, expect range between P–R1–R2 ladders.

10. Statistical context and scenario map (next 24h)

• Implied range via ATR: ±110–130 from current suggests 4040–4280 outer bounds; realistic base case narrower at 4110–4215.
• Base case (60%): Test 4110–4120 support early; rebound toward 4185–4215; end near 4190–4200.
• Bear alternative (25%): Lose 4110 on a risk-off push; probe 4075–4090; quick buy response expected near 4080; end 4100–4120.
• Bull extension (15%): Immediate reclaim of 4177/4185 (Tenkan/VWAP) leads to 4210–4225 retest; thin liquidity push to 4232/4251 possible if stops run.

11. Risk management notes (for context)

• Invalidation on long thesis: A sustained break and hourly close <4090 would weaken near-term structure and open 4075/4041.
• Optimal reward-to-risk: Entries 4110–4120 targeting 4210–4220 present ~90–110 pts upside with ~20–30 pts protective buffer to 4090 (if stops used), favorable profile.

Synthesis and conclusion

• The larger trend remains up; the pullback is shallow relative to the recent impulse and sits at textbook 23.6% retracement with confluence at pivot P.
• Strong confluence buy zone at 4110–4120: Fibonacci 38.2%, S1, prior resistance-turned-support, and intraday demand. Expect buyers to defend.
• Expect a range-to-up session over the next 24 hours: dip, base, then push toward 4195–4215.
• Tactic: Buy the dip; aim to exit near the prior intraday resistance band before R2 (4210–4220) to front-run supply.

Trade plan (24h horizon)

• Action: Buy on pullback.
• Entry (limit): 4112 (inside 4110–4120 zone to increase fill odds).
• Target: 4216 (below 4218–4222 supply to improve hit probability).
• Note: While stop-loss isn’t requested, an internal risk marker around 4090 would align with structure.

Price path expectation

• Initial hours: 4145 → 4120/4110 test.
• Mid-cycle: Bounce to 4175–4190 (VWAP/Tenkan).
• Late window: Probe 4205–4216; stall near resistance unless a momentum break triggers 4230+.